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Conned Again, Watson! Cautionary Tales of Logic, Math, and Probability
In Conned Again, Watson! , Colin Bruce re-creates the atmosphere of the original Sherlock Holmes stories to shed light on an enduring Our reliance on common sense-and ignorance of mathematics-often gets us into trouble. In these cautionary tales of greedy gamblers, reckless businessmen, and ruthless con men, Sherlock Holmes uses his deep understanding of probability, statistics, decision theory, and game theory to solve crimes and protect the innocent. But it's not just the characters in these well-crafted stories that are deceived by statistics or fall prey to gambling fallacies. We all suffer from the results of poor decisions. In this illuminating collection, Bruce entertains while teaching us to avoid similar blunders. From "The Execution of Andrews" to "The Case of the Gambling Nobleman," there has never been a more exciting way to learn when to take a calculated risk-and how to spot a scam.
304 pages, Paperback
First published January 1, 2000
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 35 reviews
April 24, 2025
You might want to re-think that last bet you made!
Talk about niche marketing! CONNED AGAIN, WATSON is a pretty difficult book to categorize. Perhaps the sub-title does a fair job of letting a potential reader know what it's all about - "cautionary tales of logic, math and probability".
It's not a pastiche in the typical sense. What author Bruce does is simply use the characters of Watson and Holmes and some very light-hearted mysteries to probe typical ignorance and common misunderstandings about probabilities, statistics, game theory and so on. Bayesian conditional probabilities, the drunkard's walk, probability distributions, the cab driver fallacy, gambling fallacies and other topics of interest in decision theory are touched upon and explained in a fashion that even the most math-phobic reader could hardly fail to understand.
That said, I expect this is the kind of book that would appeal only to that specific niche market I referred to earlier - past readers of the Sherlock Holmes canon who also had an interest in popular mathematics. That interest needn't be deep or at a university level but CONNED AGAIN, WATSON is unlikely to succeed on the basis of an interest in Sherlock Holmes alone.
Recommended.
Paul Weiss
Talk about niche marketing! CONNED AGAIN, WATSON is a pretty difficult book to categorize. Perhaps the sub-title does a fair job of letting a potential reader know what it's all about - "cautionary tales of logic, math and probability".
It's not a pastiche in the typical sense. What author Bruce does is simply use the characters of Watson and Holmes and some very light-hearted mysteries to probe typical ignorance and common misunderstandings about probabilities, statistics, game theory and so on. Bayesian conditional probabilities, the drunkard's walk, probability distributions, the cab driver fallacy, gambling fallacies and other topics of interest in decision theory are touched upon and explained in a fashion that even the most math-phobic reader could hardly fail to understand.
That said, I expect this is the kind of book that would appeal only to that specific niche market I referred to earlier - past readers of the Sherlock Holmes canon who also had an interest in popular mathematics. That interest needn't be deep or at a university level but CONNED AGAIN, WATSON is unlikely to succeed on the basis of an interest in Sherlock Holmes alone.
Recommended.
Paul Weiss
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May 20, 2023glorified johnlock fanfic except it's an AU where they only talk about probability and statistics
October 7, 2019
Well-written and entertaining. While the presented fallacies should be well-known and the stories seem at times a bit contrived, they are fun to read and demonstrate their points vividly and effectively. Would recommend this book to anyone who has even a passing interest in rationality or statistics. Had a hard time putting it away.
Very enjoyable read.
Very enjoyable read.
July 25, 2024
A clever and fun way to learn about logic and maths
November 11, 2021
Très décevant. Les problématiques mathématiques sont bien décrites et expliquées quoique souvent connues. C'est plus dans le style, la plume que le bat blesse. Les histoires sont très très loin d'avoir la qualité des nouvelles de Conan Doyle. De plus à part le nom des deux compères, l'époque et les lieux, on ne retrouve pas grand chose de nos personnages favoris complètement dénaturés. L'univers, l'ambiance et le style de l'auteur n'est pas respecté. Je vois donc dans ce livre, outre l'objectif pédagogique louable, une tentative purement mercantile d'associer un nom célèbre (Sherlock Holmes) sans le respect (ou le travail littéraire) qui lui est dû dans le but, cette fois moins louable d'écouler des exemplaires. Je n'ai pas fini le livre.
February 22, 2019
This is an entertaining book of Sherlock Holmes and Watson tales, all of which demonstrate flaws of understanding due to logic or probability errors. Many of the puzzles they are presented with defy normal understanding, but are explicated by Holmes to a very credulous Watson.
Shelved as 'lost-interest-dnf-not-gonna-read-it'
June 9, 2021Like the author explains, this is not a Sherlock Holmes pastiche. It’s a mathematics book TOLD with the characters of Holmes and Watson.
I did have fun reading the maths, but I feel unsatisfied ‘cause what I like about Holmes/Watson story is their friendship, and not maths.
I did have fun reading the maths, but I feel unsatisfied ‘cause what I like about Holmes/Watson story is their friendship, and not maths.
August 5, 2023
Actual score: 2.5 ⭐️ Just plain hilarious that I had an entire class based on this one book, but I kind of get it. Not the most entertaining book in the world, but the tension between Holmes and Watson was enough to keep me going, so thanks to them (and only them!) for getting me an A.
January 30, 2021
Bruce - le trappole della logica 8 - metti logica, matematica, Sherlock e Baker Street. Agitare bene e divertirsi
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
January 23, 2024
Les problèmes mathématiques sont bien expliqués, mais je n'ai pas trop accroché au style et ai eu du mal à aller au bout.
October 22, 2007
This is a book that blends the same sort of material found in "What the Numbers Say", "Innumeracy" and "How to Think Straight".
Here's a quick review from :
"Some people who think they hate math are lucky to learn that they actually just can't abide its often dry, abstract presentation. Physicist Colin Bruce turns math teaching on its head by using conflict, drama, and familiar characters to bring probability and game theory to vivid life in Conned Again, Watson! Cautionary Tales of Logic, Math, and Probability. Using short stories crafted in the style of Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, he lets Sherlock Holmes guide Watson and his clients through elementary mathematical reasoning. This kind of thinking is growing more and more important as poll numbers, economic indicators, and scientific data find their way into the mainstream, and Bruce's gambit pays off handsomely for the reader. Delving into such arcana as normal distribution, Bayesian logic, and risk taking, the stories never dry up, even when presenting tables or graphs. Holmes's quick wit, Watson's patience, and their various friends' and clients' dubious decisions unite both to entertain and to illuminate tough but important problems. Even the cleverest numerophile will probably still find a nugget or two of hidden knowledge in the book, or at least a few new ways to explain statistical concepts to friends and students. The rest of us can relax, enjoy the tales, and come away a little bit tougher to con. --Rob Lightner"
It was a fun book. No, really!
I loved the Sherlock Holmes stories when younger, and the author does a fairly good job of imitating the two famous characters and the feel for story style.
If you liked the aforementioned books, this will fit right in. I recommend it.
Here's a quick review from :
"Some people who think they hate math are lucky to learn that they actually just can't abide its often dry, abstract presentation. Physicist Colin Bruce turns math teaching on its head by using conflict, drama, and familiar characters to bring probability and game theory to vivid life in Conned Again, Watson! Cautionary Tales of Logic, Math, and Probability. Using short stories crafted in the style of Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, he lets Sherlock Holmes guide Watson and his clients through elementary mathematical reasoning. This kind of thinking is growing more and more important as poll numbers, economic indicators, and scientific data find their way into the mainstream, and Bruce's gambit pays off handsomely for the reader. Delving into such arcana as normal distribution, Bayesian logic, and risk taking, the stories never dry up, even when presenting tables or graphs. Holmes's quick wit, Watson's patience, and their various friends' and clients' dubious decisions unite both to entertain and to illuminate tough but important problems. Even the cleverest numerophile will probably still find a nugget or two of hidden knowledge in the book, or at least a few new ways to explain statistical concepts to friends and students. The rest of us can relax, enjoy the tales, and come away a little bit tougher to con. --Rob Lightner"
It was a fun book. No, really!
I loved the Sherlock Holmes stories when younger, and the author does a fairly good job of imitating the two famous characters and the feel for story style.
If you liked the aforementioned books, this will fit right in. I recommend it.
November 8, 2015
"Sherlock Holmes e le trappole della logica�, titolo originale: “Conned Again, Watson�, di Colin Bruce, traduzione di Luca Scarlini e Lorenzo Stefano Borgotallo, Raffaello Cortina editore, ISBN: 978-88-7078-712-2.
La traduzione del titolo in italiano risulta un po� fuorviante perché questo bel libro è più incentrato sulle applicazioni del calcolo delle probabilità rispetto a quanto faccia effettivamente riferimento alla sola applicazione della logica deduttiva.
L’Autore si serve della famosa copia costituita da Holmes e Watson per illustrare una serie di micro enigmi fra essi concatenate, con l’intenzione di svelarci alcune applicazioni ingegnose del calcolo combinatorio, ma anche per mettere in guardia il lettore riguardo alla scorretta applicazione delle informazioni che possono derivare da un’osservazione superficiale e da una non corretta valutazione dei fattori di scala.
La morale è che il ragionamento scientifico è uno strumento potente del pensiero, ma anch’esso non è privo di insidie e la sua cattiva applicazione può portare altrettanto lontano dalla verità quanto la superstizione, l’istinto, oppure la banale ignoranza.
Leggero, scorrevole e educativo!
La traduzione del titolo in italiano risulta un po� fuorviante perché questo bel libro è più incentrato sulle applicazioni del calcolo delle probabilità rispetto a quanto faccia effettivamente riferimento alla sola applicazione della logica deduttiva.
L’Autore si serve della famosa copia costituita da Holmes e Watson per illustrare una serie di micro enigmi fra essi concatenate, con l’intenzione di svelarci alcune applicazioni ingegnose del calcolo combinatorio, ma anche per mettere in guardia il lettore riguardo alla scorretta applicazione delle informazioni che possono derivare da un’osservazione superficiale e da una non corretta valutazione dei fattori di scala.
La morale è che il ragionamento scientifico è uno strumento potente del pensiero, ma anch’esso non è privo di insidie e la sua cattiva applicazione può portare altrettanto lontano dalla verità quanto la superstizione, l’istinto, oppure la banale ignoranza.
Leggero, scorrevole e educativo!
February 10, 2017
3.5 stars. My not understanding probability/statistics/etc. too well aside, the math problems sometimes felt a bit out-of-place in the mysteries, and the historical figures and references inserted into the text felt a bit forced (the author even mentions at the end that a few of them were not even from the time period where the stories took place).
August 10, 2016
**edited 01/30/14
Holmes fans will welcome this extension of Holmes' powers into the probabilistic and game-theoretic domain. Sherlock Holmes enters the domain of probability and game theory with panache, tackling well-loved favorites such as the gambler's fallacy, the birthday paradox, the Monty Hall problem, Prisoner's Dilemma, independent versus dependent events, and martingales. Holmes fits well into the paradigm--after all, isn't Holmes' well-loved saying, "Once you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth", just another way of stating conditional probability?
...
Due to my disapproval of , I am no longer posting full reviews here.
Holmes fans will welcome this extension of Holmes' powers into the probabilistic and game-theoretic domain. Sherlock Holmes enters the domain of probability and game theory with panache, tackling well-loved favorites such as the gambler's fallacy, the birthday paradox, the Monty Hall problem, Prisoner's Dilemma, independent versus dependent events, and martingales. Holmes fits well into the paradigm--after all, isn't Holmes' well-loved saying, "Once you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth", just another way of stating conditional probability?
...
Due to my disapproval of , I am no longer posting full reviews here.
July 19, 2012
(3.5 stars) This book uses Sherlock Holmes and Dr. Watson in a series of illustrative cases to explain several statistical and mathematical concepts that show the errors in some "common sense" approaches. The cases cover topics as diverse as the shortest line (why you always seem to be in the longest line), the birthday paradox (how likely is it that there is a shared birthday in a room), random number generation (how bad people are at generating truly random numbers), throwing good money after bad, and the prize behind one of three closed doors (the Monte Hall problem). Some game theory is also thrown in, as well as some well known gambling cons. The lessons are well integrated in the stories and I found the explanations to be thorough without getting pulled down into extreme detail or minutiae.
July 24, 2016
I've been reading this book to our boys (9 and 12), and this is I think the first time they've ever been able to understand why math might be interesting. (Sadly, thanks to our elementary school curriculum from time immemorial, elementary school math is nothing more than arithmetic.)
I stumbled on this book years ago, and I loved it because it was such a beautiful presentation of some rather interesting math--especially for somebody who loved Sherlock Holmes. On a whim, I decided to see if our boys could learn anything from it. I was very surprised to find that my boys seemed to like it, and keep asking for more--they liked it better than the original Sherlock Holmes stories. Apparently this book is good not only for people who like a beautiful presentation of things they already know, but also for people who don't know the stuff yet.
I stumbled on this book years ago, and I loved it because it was such a beautiful presentation of some rather interesting math--especially for somebody who loved Sherlock Holmes. On a whim, I decided to see if our boys could learn anything from it. I was very surprised to find that my boys seemed to like it, and keep asking for more--they liked it better than the original Sherlock Holmes stories. Apparently this book is good not only for people who like a beautiful presentation of things they already know, but also for people who don't know the stuff yet.
October 3, 2011
Twelve short Sherlock Holmes stories challanging logic, probability, statistic, game theory, more or less relevant to daily life. The authors approach of telling the story seen through Holmes and Watson is brilliant (incl. the dialogue between the two). Some stories are a bit simple and boring while others were quite amazing. Example Chapter 7 illustrates the error of assuming that a well-defined ordering retlation must also define a unique hierarchy. In higher mathematics it is quite possible to have x greater than y, y greater than z, and yet z greater than x! Last but not least, the afterword is extremely useful where the author sheds more light on each chapter.
June 12, 2024
This is one of those titles that you read and think, "Ugh." Fortunately the book is better than the title or subtitle suggests. So good I think I'm going to buy a copy instead of just taking it out of the library again and again. Although technically it's a non-fiction book, it teaches basic concepts of logic, math and statistics in a series of stories taught by Sherlock Holmes and Doctor Watson.
I liked the book so much that I wound up buying a copy instead of relying on my library. After the pandemic hit, I can no longer afford the gas to get to the library.
I liked the book so much that I wound up buying a copy instead of relying on my library. After the pandemic hit, I can no longer afford the gas to get to the library.
February 14, 2015
kitap, mantık ve olasılık hikayelerini yaşanmış ve ya o tarihten sonra yaşanacak aynı vakitte bir kısım uyarlama hikaleri üzerinde anlatılmaya çalışılmış. Olasılık konunda ve ya dersinde bu konuyu uzak duranlara tavsiye ederim,çünkü ben de lise 2 den beri bu konudan uzak duruyordum. Lakin matematik kültür kitaplarını okumaya başlayınca bir başka gelmeye başladı. Artık matematik üzerinde bilgiler edindiğim vakit inanılmaz keyif alıyorum. Bu kitaptan önce Sihirli Matematik Hikayelerini Okumanızı tansiye ederim.
March 7, 2016
While the book offers a great introduction to many of the more popular problems in probability, statistics, and game theory, the narrative is still seriously lacking. I will concede that creating stories in which you are simultaneously attempting to explain a complicated mathematical principle is a challenge. Furthermore his explanations of these problems is actually very good and I believe that it has the ability to educate a wide audience regardless of mathematical acumen. Still the narrative is cheesy and is awkwardly made to fit the mathematical problems Bruce discusses.
February 20, 2012
This book was most Elementary. In twelve original Sherlock Holmes stories author Colin Bruce explains simple probability theory without Algibra. This book is great for anyone who has ever seen the TV show Numb3rs or just likes Sherlock Holmes. Though Bruce's writting style does not quite mimic Sir Doyle's it is still very readable and not at all the worst attempt I've read. So don't let a fear of math stop you from reading this book. Word problem have never been so entertaining.
December 24, 2008
Math! Mystery! Love!
Okay, love has very little to do with it; I just really love math and mystery, so this book, while I already knew all fo the concepts tackled by Bruce, was perfect plane reading for me.
I had never really noticed how sad of a character Watson is, though. But that's neither here nor there.
Okay, love has very little to do with it; I just really love math and mystery, so this book, while I already knew all fo the concepts tackled by Bruce, was perfect plane reading for me.
I had never really noticed how sad of a character Watson is, though. But that's neither here nor there.
March 26, 2008
I love this book. It's a collection of short stories featuring Sherlock Holmes and Dr. Watson, who are charming and lovely as ever. Each story is pieced together to make you think, and teaches an appreciation for uncommon math in our society. I want my future kids to read this one, because I know they'll go outside and look at problem-solving in new and exciting ways.
September 9, 2009
Cute. A little tiresome, and some cases a little contrived (Sherlock Holmes being a master statistician/probability guru is a bit much, and Watson is always a buffoon), but if there's any way to learn this stuff, this is it. It has the air of a mystery novel in that you know some major fallacy will arise, and you try and anticipate it. Good fun ^_^
April 15, 2010
The author did a nice job explaining the mathematical principles set out in each story, but some of the characters rubbed me the wrong way. Holmes's attitude toward Watson wasn't very nice, and I don't understand why Watson would put up with someone who's always insulting his intelligence. Is Holmes like this in Doyle's stories, too?
Read
August 7, 2011Sherlock Holmes teaches lessons in probability and statistics. A relatively painless series of lessons couched as mysteries, though Holmes purists and sticklers for historical or geographical accuracy (how, exactly, does Baker Street intersect with the London Docklands?) may be irked. Just ignore the quibbles and you'll learn why what you think is probable, probably isn't.
August 21, 2009
Packaging interesting bits of math and game theory in the late Victorian cloak of Sherlock Holmes and Dr. Watson. Not an obvious combination.
If you thought the steam-driven mechanical spider in "Wild, Wild West" was awesome, you'll like this book.
If you thought the steam-driven mechanical spider in "Wild, Wild West" was awesome, you'll like this book.
July 2, 2010
Cleverly written stories involving Sherlock Holmes and Watson in which the mysteries are solved using mathematics, logic and probability.
All of the mathematical concepts are clearly explained and very accessible to the average reader.
All of the mathematical concepts are clearly explained and very accessible to the average reader.
July 5, 2011
An interesting spin on Sherlock Holmes and Watson. Holmes and Watson take on cases and solve them by applying common sense and probability rules. This was an entertaining read and it tended to emphasize its mathematical lessons very gently. The author is also a very competent mystery writer.
April 17, 2008
Statistics and probability always made my brain glaze over, til I read this book!
Brilliant :)
Brilliant :)
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