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256 pages, Paperback
First published January 1, 1998
... we favor business and industries unlikely to experience major change. The reason for that is simple: Making either type of purchase, we are searching for operations that we believe are virtually certain to possess enormous competitive strength ten or twenty years from now. A fast-changing industry environment may offer the chance for huge wins, but it precludes the certainty we speak.
... we don¡¯t own stocks of tech companies, even though we share the general view that our society will be transformed by their products and services. Our problem - which we can¡¯t solve by studying up - is that we have no insights into which participants in the tech field possess a truly durable competitive advantage.
(1) As if governed by Newton's First Law of Motion, an institution will resist any change in its current direction;
(2) Just as work expands to fill available time, corporate projects or acquisitions will materialize to soak up available funds;
(3) Any business craving of the leader, however foolish, will be quickly supported by detailed rate-of-return and strategic studies prepared by his troops; and
(4) The behavior of peer companies, whether they are expanding, acquiring, setting executive compensation or whatever, will be mindlessly imitated.
Institutional dynamics, not venality or stupidity, set businesses on these courses, which are too often misguided.
Ben Graham told a story forty years ago that illustrates why investment professionals behave as they do. An oil prospector, moving to his heavenly reward, was met by St. Peter with bad news. ¡°You¡¯re qualified for residence,¡± said St. Peter, ¡°but, as you can see, the compound reserved for oil men is packed. There¡¯s no way to squeeze you in.¡± After thinking a moment, the prospector asked if he might say just four words to the present occupants. That seemed harmless to St. Peter, so the prospector cupped his hands and yelled, ¡°Oil discovered in hell.¡± Immediately, the gate to the compound opened and all of the oil men marched out to head for the nether regions. Impressed, St. Peter invited the prospector to move in and make himself comfortable. The prospector paused. ¡°No,¡± he said, ¡°I think I¡¯ll go along with the rest of the boys. There might be some truth to that rumor after all.
... leverage just moves things along faster. Charlie and I have never been in a big hurry: We enjoy the process far more than the proceeds - though we have learned to live with those also.
... ¡°owner earnings.¡± These represent (a) reported earnings plus (b) depreciation, depletion, amortization, and certain other on-cash charges¡ less (c) the average annual amount of capitalized expenditures for plant and equipment, etc that the business requires to fully maintain its long-term competitive position and its unit volume.
... what are we paying the accountants for if it is not to deliver us the ¡°truth¡± about our business. But the accountants' job is to record, not evaluate, The evaluation job falls to investors and managers¡ accounting is but an aid to business thinking, never a substitute for it.