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Incerto #2
效芯褉薪懈泄 谢械斜褨写褜. 袩褉芯 (薪械)泄屑芯胁褨褉薪械 褍 褉械邪谢褜薪芯屑褍 卸懈褌褌褨
笑褨谢泻芯屑 芯褔械胁懈写薪芯, 褖芯 卸懈褌褌褟 鈥� 褑械 褋褍屑邪褉薪懈泄 械褎械泻褌 薪械斜邪谐邪褌褜芯褏 胁邪卸谢懈胁懈褏 锌芯褌褉褟褋褨薪褜. 袟谐邪写邪泄褌械 褋胁芯褦 卸懈褌褌褟. 袩械褉械褉邪褏褍泄褌械 胁邪卸谢懈胁褨 锌芯写褨褩 泄 褌械褏薪芯谢芯谐褨褔薪褨 胁懈薪邪褏芯写懈, 褖芯 锌褉懈锌邪谢懈 薪邪 胁邪褕 胁褨泻, 褨 锌芯褉褨胁薪褟泄褌械 蟹 泻芯谢懈褋褜 薪邪锌褉芯谐薪芯蟹芯胁邪薪懈屑. 小泻褨谢褜泻懈 褩褏 芦锌褉懈褩褏邪谢芯 蟹邪 褉芯蟹泻谢邪写芯屑禄? 袩芯写懈胁褨褌褜褋褟 薪邪 芯褋芯斜懈褋褌械 卸懈褌褌褟, 蟹谐邪写邪泄褌械, 褟泻 胁懈斜懈褉邪谢懈 锌褉芯褎械褋褨褞, 蟹褍褋褌褉褨谢懈 褋胁芯褞 锌芯谢芯胁懈薪泻褍, 械屑褨谐褉褍胁邪谢懈, 褋褌懈泻- 薪褍谢懈褋褟 蟹褨 蟹褉邪写芯褞, 薪械褋锌芯写褨胁邪薪芯 褉芯蟹斜邪谐邪褌褨谢懈 邪斜芯 胁锌邪谢懈 褍 蟹谢懈写薪褨. 效懈 褔邪褋褌芯 褑褨 锌芯写褨褩 胁褨写斜褍胁邪谢懈褋褟 蟹邪 锌谢邪薪芯屑? 袦邪谢芯泄屑芯胁褨褉薪褍 锌芯写褨褞, 褟泻邪 褋锌褉邪胁谢褟褦 泻芯谢芯褋邪谢褜薪懈泄 械褎械泻褌, 泻芯谢懈褕薪褨泄 褌褉械泄写械褉 袧邪褋褨屑 孝邪谢械斜 胁谢褍褔薪芯 薪邪蟹懈胁邪胁 效芯褉薪懈屑 谢械斜械写械屑.
芦效芯褉薪懈泄 谢械斜褨写褜禄 鈥� 褑械 锌褉懈褋褌褉邪褋薪懈泄, 褨褉芯薪褨褔薪懈泄 褨 谐谢懈斜芯泻懈泄 械泻褋泻褍褉褋 褍 褎褨谢芯褋芯褎褨褞, 屑邪褌械屑邪褌懈泻褍 泄 械锌褨褋褌械屑芯谢芯谐褨褞 泄屑芯胁褨褉薪芯褋褌褨. 校褋褨 薪械锌械褉械写斜邪褔褍胁邪薪褨 锌芯写褨褩 袧邪褋褨屑 孝邪谢械斜 薪邪蟹懈胁邪褦 效芯褉薪懈屑懈 谢械斜械写褟屑懈. 袙褨薪 褍胁邪卸邪褦, 褖芯 褋邪屑械 胁芯薪懈 写邪褞褌褜 锌芯褕褌芯胁褏 褟泻 褨褋褌芯褉褨褩 谢褞写褋褌胁邪 蟹邪谐邪谢芯屑, 褌邪泻 褨 卸懈褌褌褞 泻芯卸薪芯谐芯 蟹 薪邪褋. 肖褨薪邪薪褋芯胁懈泄 谐褍褉褍 泄 褎褨谢芯褋芯褎 锌械褉械泻芯薪邪薪懈泄, 褖芯 邪斜懈 写芯褋褟谐褌懈 褍褋锌褨褏褍, 褌褉械斜邪 蟹薪邪褌懈, 褟泻 锌褉懈褉褍褔懈褌懈 效芯褉薪懈褏 谢械斜械写褨胁. 孝邪谢械斜褍 胁写邪谢芯褋褟 锌褉芯写械屑芯薪褋褌褉褍胁邪褌懈 褋胁芯褞 褌械芯褉褨褞 薪邪 锌褉邪泻褌懈褑褨: 锌褨写 褔邪褋 褎褨薪邪薪褋芯胁芯褩 泻褉懈蟹懈 2008 褉芯泻褍 泻芯屑锌邪薪褨褟, 薪邪 褟泻褍 胁褨薪 锌褉邪褑褞胁邪胁, 蟹邪褉芯斜懈谢邪 (邪 薪械 胁褌褉邪褌懈谢邪!) 锌褨胁屑褨谢褜褟褉写邪 写芯谢邪褉褨胁.
芦效芯褉薪懈泄 谢械斜褨写褜禄 鈥� 褑械 锌褉懈褋褌褉邪褋薪懈泄, 褨褉芯薪褨褔薪懈泄 褨 谐谢懈斜芯泻懈泄 械泻褋泻褍褉褋 褍 褎褨谢芯褋芯褎褨褞, 屑邪褌械屑邪褌懈泻褍 泄 械锌褨褋褌械屑芯谢芯谐褨褞 泄屑芯胁褨褉薪芯褋褌褨. 校褋褨 薪械锌械褉械写斜邪褔褍胁邪薪褨 锌芯写褨褩 袧邪褋褨屑 孝邪谢械斜 薪邪蟹懈胁邪褦 效芯褉薪懈屑懈 谢械斜械写褟屑懈. 袙褨薪 褍胁邪卸邪褦, 褖芯 褋邪屑械 胁芯薪懈 写邪褞褌褜 锌芯褕褌芯胁褏 褟泻 褨褋褌芯褉褨褩 谢褞写褋褌胁邪 蟹邪谐邪谢芯屑, 褌邪泻 褨 卸懈褌褌褞 泻芯卸薪芯谐芯 蟹 薪邪褋. 肖褨薪邪薪褋芯胁懈泄 谐褍褉褍 泄 褎褨谢芯褋芯褎 锌械褉械泻芯薪邪薪懈泄, 褖芯 邪斜懈 写芯褋褟谐褌懈 褍褋锌褨褏褍, 褌褉械斜邪 蟹薪邪褌懈, 褟泻 锌褉懈褉褍褔懈褌懈 效芯褉薪懈褏 谢械斜械写褨胁. 孝邪谢械斜褍 胁写邪谢芯褋褟 锌褉芯写械屑芯薪褋褌褉褍胁邪褌懈 褋胁芯褞 褌械芯褉褨褞 薪邪 锌褉邪泻褌懈褑褨: 锌褨写 褔邪褋 褎褨薪邪薪褋芯胁芯褩 泻褉懈蟹懈 2008 褉芯泻褍 泻芯屑锌邪薪褨褟, 薪邪 褟泻褍 胁褨薪 锌褉邪褑褞胁邪胁, 蟹邪褉芯斜懈谢邪 (邪 薪械 胁褌褉邪褌懈谢邪!) 锌褨胁屑褨谢褜褟褉写邪 写芯谢邪褉褨胁.
392 pages, Hardcover
First published April 17, 2007
17.3k people are currently reading
197k people want to read
About the author
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
56听books14k听followersNassim Nicholas Taleb spent 21 years as a risk taker (quantitative trader) before becoming a flaneur and researcher in philosophical, mathematical and (mostly) practical problems with probability. 鈥�
Taleb is the author of a multivolume essay, the Incerto (The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and Skin in the Game) an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision making when we don鈥檛 understand the world, expressed in the form of a personal essay with autobiographical sections, stories, parables, and philosophical, historical, and scientic discussions in nonover lapping volumes that can be accessed in any order.
In addition to his trader life, Taleb has also written, as a backup of the Incerto, more than 50 scholarly papers in statistical physics, statistics, philosophy, ethics, economics, international affairs, and quantitative finance, all around the notion of risk and probability.
Taleb is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at NYU's Tandon School of Engineering (only a quarter time position). His current focus is on the properties of systems that can handle disorder ("antifragile").
Taleb believes that prizes, honorary degrees, awards, and ceremonialism debase knowledge by turning it into a spectator sport.
See Wikipedia for more details.
Taleb is the author of a multivolume essay, the Incerto (The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and Skin in the Game) an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision making when we don鈥檛 understand the world, expressed in the form of a personal essay with autobiographical sections, stories, parables, and philosophical, historical, and scientic discussions in nonover lapping volumes that can be accessed in any order.
In addition to his trader life, Taleb has also written, as a backup of the Incerto, more than 50 scholarly papers in statistical physics, statistics, philosophy, ethics, economics, international affairs, and quantitative finance, all around the notion of risk and probability.
Taleb is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at NYU's Tandon School of Engineering (only a quarter time position). His current focus is on the properties of systems that can handle disorder ("antifragile").
Taleb believes that prizes, honorary degrees, awards, and ceremonialism debase knowledge by turning it into a spectator sport.
See Wikipedia for more details.
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 7,390 reviews
June 11, 2008
This is a book that raises a number of very important questions, but chief among them is definitely the question of how the interplay between a good idea and an insufferable author combine to effect the reading experience?
This author is an a-hole. Full stop. He's dismissive, chronically insecure, unstructured and hostile towards his detractors. He engages in what may be the lowest form of rhetoric by pre-emptively attacking any critics (even before they've had the chance to come forward) as too stupid or blinkered to follow his argument. He's contemptuous towards entire disciplines (economics, law, social science) without making much attempt to engage with the concepts he's critiquing beyond the broadest levels of generality. He's got a huge chip on his shoulder towards the scientific/academic establishment (especially the Nobel committee - try taking a shot every time he makes an off-hand, tangential attack on Nobel and you've made your Friday night). Worst of all, he's endlessly digressive, and couches his digressions in the language of capricious genius rather than simple bad writing (he hits the occasional sweetnote with these tangents, but if anyone else who has read this thing cover to cover wanted to put a bullet in Yvgenia, feel free to step on up).
He's hard to like.
It's unfortunate, because at the core of all of the go-nowhere anecdotes and borderline psychobabble is a good analysis on how people are psychologically and socially ill-equipped to handle unexpected outlier events (which he persistently, desperately refers to as "Black Swans", one of approximately 3000 new bits of not-too-essential terminology he's trying to appropriate for himself) and can't learn from our mistakes. It's a wonderful theory for a book one third the length of this one, and I'm happy to admit that some of the better moments were probably missed by this reader simply because of the exhaustion of filtering through the surplusage.
I am sure that the failure to give this book five or six stars (the possibility of a six star rating might itself be something of a Black Swan) is due to my own marginal intellect. The author has made it clear that any other explanation would be entirely unpredictable.
This author is an a-hole. Full stop. He's dismissive, chronically insecure, unstructured and hostile towards his detractors. He engages in what may be the lowest form of rhetoric by pre-emptively attacking any critics (even before they've had the chance to come forward) as too stupid or blinkered to follow his argument. He's contemptuous towards entire disciplines (economics, law, social science) without making much attempt to engage with the concepts he's critiquing beyond the broadest levels of generality. He's got a huge chip on his shoulder towards the scientific/academic establishment (especially the Nobel committee - try taking a shot every time he makes an off-hand, tangential attack on Nobel and you've made your Friday night). Worst of all, he's endlessly digressive, and couches his digressions in the language of capricious genius rather than simple bad writing (he hits the occasional sweetnote with these tangents, but if anyone else who has read this thing cover to cover wanted to put a bullet in Yvgenia, feel free to step on up).
He's hard to like.
It's unfortunate, because at the core of all of the go-nowhere anecdotes and borderline psychobabble is a good analysis on how people are psychologically and socially ill-equipped to handle unexpected outlier events (which he persistently, desperately refers to as "Black Swans", one of approximately 3000 new bits of not-too-essential terminology he's trying to appropriate for himself) and can't learn from our mistakes. It's a wonderful theory for a book one third the length of this one, and I'm happy to admit that some of the better moments were probably missed by this reader simply because of the exhaustion of filtering through the surplusage.
I am sure that the failure to give this book five or six stars (the possibility of a six star rating might itself be something of a Black Swan) is due to my own marginal intellect. The author has made it clear that any other explanation would be entirely unpredictable.
August 11, 2008
This is a great book. And, to take a page from Taleb, anyone who doesn't think so is wrong.
No, no, there are a number of problems with the book. A bit bloated, a bit repetitive. And NNT does make the misstep every once and a while. To take a very small instance, Taleb bases a short section of the book upon the idea that to be "hardened by the Gulag" means to become "harder" or "stronger" rather than its true meaning of someone who has become inured to certain difficulties, not necessarily stronger because of it.
However, this along with other problems are mere quibbles relative to the strengths of this book (and, I think it's worth noting that many of the negative reviews on this site base their hostile reactions to Taleb on just such insignificant trifles.) The Black Swan deals with the fascinating topic of the nature uncertainty and approaches it from a variety of intellectual angles, mainly the psychological blocks that we are both born with and have created for ourselves that prevent our understanding of the improbable: the narrative fallacy and the problem of induction (the tenuous relationship of cause and effect); our reliance on flawed mathematical models; the expect problem. Each one of these discussions reinforces his main argument but captivate independently as they are insights to the way we process information.
Taleb also references numerous thinkers that are not as well known in the popular consciousness and provides wonderful anecdotes and examples from their life and work that illustrate his points and entertain the reader.
Many other reviewers comment on the Taleb's unique style: arrogant and aggressive. Just because he's arrogant, however, doesn't mean he's wrong--this man has spent most of his life dedicated to this subject and it shows. And his antagonistic style seems appropriate--it's hard to go against the establishment, even if your goal is truth; people aren't going to believe you. He attacks the Nobel Prize in Economics because according to him, the financial models created by the prizewinners that that Swedish committee has rewarded have done a great deal of harm to people's understanding of the true economic risks involved. Preposterous? Sacrilege? These are the exclamations of narrow-minded thinkers who have yet to examine the evidence thoroughly.
I, personally, found Taleb's style to be amusing and engaging. It reflects a true passion and dedication to the beliefs he expounds in the book, beliefs that are worth some attention. If we live in a time of uncertainty, it's a good thing to understand what that really means.
No, no, there are a number of problems with the book. A bit bloated, a bit repetitive. And NNT does make the misstep every once and a while. To take a very small instance, Taleb bases a short section of the book upon the idea that to be "hardened by the Gulag" means to become "harder" or "stronger" rather than its true meaning of someone who has become inured to certain difficulties, not necessarily stronger because of it.
However, this along with other problems are mere quibbles relative to the strengths of this book (and, I think it's worth noting that many of the negative reviews on this site base their hostile reactions to Taleb on just such insignificant trifles.) The Black Swan deals with the fascinating topic of the nature uncertainty and approaches it from a variety of intellectual angles, mainly the psychological blocks that we are both born with and have created for ourselves that prevent our understanding of the improbable: the narrative fallacy and the problem of induction (the tenuous relationship of cause and effect); our reliance on flawed mathematical models; the expect problem. Each one of these discussions reinforces his main argument but captivate independently as they are insights to the way we process information.
Taleb also references numerous thinkers that are not as well known in the popular consciousness and provides wonderful anecdotes and examples from their life and work that illustrate his points and entertain the reader.
Many other reviewers comment on the Taleb's unique style: arrogant and aggressive. Just because he's arrogant, however, doesn't mean he's wrong--this man has spent most of his life dedicated to this subject and it shows. And his antagonistic style seems appropriate--it's hard to go against the establishment, even if your goal is truth; people aren't going to believe you. He attacks the Nobel Prize in Economics because according to him, the financial models created by the prizewinners that that Swedish committee has rewarded have done a great deal of harm to people's understanding of the true economic risks involved. Preposterous? Sacrilege? These are the exclamations of narrow-minded thinkers who have yet to examine the evidence thoroughly.
I, personally, found Taleb's style to be amusing and engaging. It reflects a true passion and dedication to the beliefs he expounds in the book, beliefs that are worth some attention. If we live in a time of uncertainty, it's a good thing to understand what that really means.
June 21, 2008
I can summarize this book in two words: Shit happens.
Actually, I should be more fair since the author spent 300 pages laying out his beliefs and arguing his conclusions. The real summary of this book should be: Shit happens more often than you think.
The author, Taleb, rails against economics, most philosophers, and the way we incorporate news to allow us to make sense of events and everyday happenings. He wants us to unlearn the way we think and learn, while destroying the modern beliefs in statistics and at the same time eviscerating the nobel prize winners who got us to where we are today.
While the author has valid points, his writing style oscillates between boring, repetitive, and just plain bad. Plus he uses the pronouns 鈥淚鈥� and 鈥渕e鈥� more often than any other author I have read. Perhaps he is using his gigantic ego to prove the existence of fat tails in the standard bell curve and thus exhibit directly the central thesis which is that the Gaussian curve does not hold up in our modern 鈥渆xtremistan鈥� society (and trust me that that sentence is funny if you read the book).
The author does understand his limitation to some degree and even suggests skipping certain chapters, though to be honest, the chapters he recommends skipping I found to be the best in the book.
I do recommend this for the ideas. It is worth a read/skim for anyone interested in statistics, economics, managing money, or just generally intellectually curious.
Actually, I should be more fair since the author spent 300 pages laying out his beliefs and arguing his conclusions. The real summary of this book should be: Shit happens more often than you think.
The author, Taleb, rails against economics, most philosophers, and the way we incorporate news to allow us to make sense of events and everyday happenings. He wants us to unlearn the way we think and learn, while destroying the modern beliefs in statistics and at the same time eviscerating the nobel prize winners who got us to where we are today.
While the author has valid points, his writing style oscillates between boring, repetitive, and just plain bad. Plus he uses the pronouns 鈥淚鈥� and 鈥渕e鈥� more often than any other author I have read. Perhaps he is using his gigantic ego to prove the existence of fat tails in the standard bell curve and thus exhibit directly the central thesis which is that the Gaussian curve does not hold up in our modern 鈥渆xtremistan鈥� society (and trust me that that sentence is funny if you read the book).
The author does understand his limitation to some degree and even suggests skipping certain chapters, though to be honest, the chapters he recommends skipping I found to be the best in the book.
I do recommend this for the ideas. It is worth a read/skim for anyone interested in statistics, economics, managing money, or just generally intellectually curious.
August 24, 2008
I stopped reading this because the author is so pompous and annoying.
August 30, 2008
This book has diminishing returns on the time spent reading it. Taleb's jeremiad is directed against - well - everyone who is not as enlightened as he is. I trudged through this book because - well - everyone is reading it and enlightened people should know how to comment on it. There, I did it. Now I can look down on all those people out there who aren't enlightened like Taleb. And now, me.
Taleb is actually on to something important if you can tolerate his self-importance enough to filter his verbage to get his good ideas. A central idea is that we assume everything in the world is Gaussian and then we base all our decisions about life on our Gaussian models. But the significant, life-changing, society-changing, events are outside the Gaussian. Things like 9-11. They belong to Extremestan, not Mediocristan.
The ideas are interesting. Many are quite compelling. But it really seems Taleb's main point is "everyone else is an idiot." It seems the details why are secondary to that point.
I did find quite useful a good line of thought regarding the importance of narrative in grasping truth. We are so drawn to narrative, that all retained "true" facts must fit into our constructed narrative. Other data are ignored or made to fit. We need to be on the watch for data that disproves rather than confirms our story. And perhaps we ought to learn better how to understand and speak in story. Mmm - God himself, in the person of Jesus, communicated truth in parables - narratives! No one else seems to have caught on. Except Taleb, of course.
Taleb is actually on to something important if you can tolerate his self-importance enough to filter his verbage to get his good ideas. A central idea is that we assume everything in the world is Gaussian and then we base all our decisions about life on our Gaussian models. But the significant, life-changing, society-changing, events are outside the Gaussian. Things like 9-11. They belong to Extremestan, not Mediocristan.
The ideas are interesting. Many are quite compelling. But it really seems Taleb's main point is "everyone else is an idiot." It seems the details why are secondary to that point.
I did find quite useful a good line of thought regarding the importance of narrative in grasping truth. We are so drawn to narrative, that all retained "true" facts must fit into our constructed narrative. Other data are ignored or made to fit. We need to be on the watch for data that disproves rather than confirms our story. And perhaps we ought to learn better how to understand and speak in story. Mmm - God himself, in the person of Jesus, communicated truth in parables - narratives! No one else seems to have caught on. Except Taleb, of course.
September 15, 2015
The first time through, I listened to this book with my husband, usually while I was cooking. Although I tried to stop and mark important passages, I ended up thinking the book was not very systematic. The second time through, chapter by chapter, the method in his madness is more apparent.
I continued to think Taleb is more a popularizer than an innovator. But even if so, that's not so shabby. He's trying to revolutionize the way we think, and the more we rehearse that, the better.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb is working the same territory as Daniel Kahneman in Thinking, Fast and Slow. While they both have us investigating our thinking, for Kahneman, it's to make us own up, while Taleb has more direct emphasis on avoiding disaster.
He would like for us to realize our overuse of normal-curve thinking, which makes us minimize risk and have no expectations out of the ordinary: like the turkey whose experience all goes to show how human beings love him and care about him and prove it by feeding him--until Thanksgiving day arrives and he's dinner.
The normal curve tells us that the further out from the mean we go, the rarity of unusual events rapidly increases. Fine--when it applies. We are not going to meet any 20-foot tall people or anyone living to 150 years old. But the normal curve often doesn't apply. We can't predict which books will be best sellers or how how the sales count will go on one of them. We can't predict when a war will occur or just how one will transpire.
The world is not fair. Unfairness and inequality are no epiphenomena but part and parcel of reality.
Even in evolution, the fittest survive, thrive, and have more offspring. Take writing: before literacy, every town crier and performer had his day. With written methods, all the little guys are out of work. Then, one book may become a bestseller. It leaves even the other books in the dust. And when the author of the bestseller writes another book, it'll get more attention than those who didn't write a bestseller.
When we think normal curves apply but they don't, we are confusing what the world is like with how we would like it to be. We are shoving reality into the Procrustean bed of our idealized thinking. That distorts our vision of reality. By keeping an open mind, at least, we won't be walking blindly into risk. We can't prevent the unexpected, but we can at least turn the black swans into grey swans.
We are like the 13th fairy at the Sleeping Beauty's christening. We can't do away with the angry fairy's curse, but we can mitigate it. Grey swan, not black.
The difficulty with many kinds of prognosticators in our world is that they are spinning theories that purport to predict, but their theories are stories, and their stories connect the plot points and only sound as though they are predictive. We are lulled or, even worse, misled. We listen according to our preferred belief system. We listen to what we want to hear: confirmatory listening. We actively cherry pick reality to make it fit what we want to believe. The solution? Try the opposite, finding something that doesn't fit. A plethora of confirmatory evidence is exactly what the turkey had before Thanksgiving.
Taleb lauds two unexpected types of practitioners: military people and financial managers. They will know if their predictions are wrong or right. If they are wrong, they'll have to face the music. Their predictions matter. Not so the world of talking heads and stuffed shirts: they just adjust their stories and keep on going.
What those stories are, are predictions of the past.
If you see an ice cube sitting on a table you can predict the future: it will melt into a little puddle of water. But if you see a puddle on the table, and that's all you see, there could be a thousand stories of what it is and how it came to be there. The correct explanation may be 1001--or one which will never be found.
It could be that angry old fairy, melted.
As I said, most of the stories are not explanations. But theories are sticky. Once you have one you have a hard time seeing beyond it (remembering that sometimes no theory is best, if the theory is wrong). So, he recommends an empirical approach with art and craft, a less grand theory, and always an eye toward outcomes.
Right at the end it occurred to me that this is religion. He tells you how to sustain yourself in the absence of worldly support, how to stand up to others and say your piece, how to wait and be patient, and about the merits of surrounding yourself with like-minded souls.
To close, a rousing rendition of Kipling's
He can't teach like Kahneman, but he gets it said.
I continued to think Taleb is more a popularizer than an innovator. But even if so, that's not so shabby. He's trying to revolutionize the way we think, and the more we rehearse that, the better.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb is working the same territory as Daniel Kahneman in Thinking, Fast and Slow. While they both have us investigating our thinking, for Kahneman, it's to make us own up, while Taleb has more direct emphasis on avoiding disaster.
He would like for us to realize our overuse of normal-curve thinking, which makes us minimize risk and have no expectations out of the ordinary: like the turkey whose experience all goes to show how human beings love him and care about him and prove it by feeding him--until Thanksgiving day arrives and he's dinner.
The normal curve tells us that the further out from the mean we go, the rarity of unusual events rapidly increases. Fine--when it applies. We are not going to meet any 20-foot tall people or anyone living to 150 years old. But the normal curve often doesn't apply. We can't predict which books will be best sellers or how how the sales count will go on one of them. We can't predict when a war will occur or just how one will transpire.
The world is not fair. Unfairness and inequality are no epiphenomena but part and parcel of reality.
Even in evolution, the fittest survive, thrive, and have more offspring. Take writing: before literacy, every town crier and performer had his day. With written methods, all the little guys are out of work. Then, one book may become a bestseller. It leaves even the other books in the dust. And when the author of the bestseller writes another book, it'll get more attention than those who didn't write a bestseller.
When we think normal curves apply but they don't, we are confusing what the world is like with how we would like it to be. We are shoving reality into the Procrustean bed of our idealized thinking. That distorts our vision of reality. By keeping an open mind, at least, we won't be walking blindly into risk. We can't prevent the unexpected, but we can at least turn the black swans into grey swans.
We are like the 13th fairy at the Sleeping Beauty's christening. We can't do away with the angry fairy's curse, but we can mitigate it. Grey swan, not black.
The difficulty with many kinds of prognosticators in our world is that they are spinning theories that purport to predict, but their theories are stories, and their stories connect the plot points and only sound as though they are predictive. We are lulled or, even worse, misled. We listen according to our preferred belief system. We listen to what we want to hear: confirmatory listening. We actively cherry pick reality to make it fit what we want to believe. The solution? Try the opposite, finding something that doesn't fit. A plethora of confirmatory evidence is exactly what the turkey had before Thanksgiving.
Taleb lauds two unexpected types of practitioners: military people and financial managers. They will know if their predictions are wrong or right. If they are wrong, they'll have to face the music. Their predictions matter. Not so the world of talking heads and stuffed shirts: they just adjust their stories and keep on going.
What those stories are, are predictions of the past.
If you see an ice cube sitting on a table you can predict the future: it will melt into a little puddle of water. But if you see a puddle on the table, and that's all you see, there could be a thousand stories of what it is and how it came to be there. The correct explanation may be 1001--or one which will never be found.
It could be that angry old fairy, melted.
As I said, most of the stories are not explanations. But theories are sticky. Once you have one you have a hard time seeing beyond it (remembering that sometimes no theory is best, if the theory is wrong). So, he recommends an empirical approach with art and craft, a less grand theory, and always an eye toward outcomes.
Right at the end it occurred to me that this is religion. He tells you how to sustain yourself in the absence of worldly support, how to stand up to others and say your piece, how to wait and be patient, and about the merits of surrounding yourself with like-minded souls.
To close, a rousing rendition of Kipling's
He can't teach like Kahneman, but he gets it said.
March 6, 2016
This book profoundly nasty and intellectually demented. Taleb a classic science denier; oscillating between anti-science and pseudo-intellectual arguments. When some scientist says something he likes, he misrepresents it to fit his narrative. When the scientific consensus is against him, he cries grand conspiracy theory or slanders the methods of science. His argumentation in this book is like a case study in logical fallacies and crank red flags.
Special pleading.
Ignoring disconfirming evidence like the exceptions to the professed rule.
* "Certain professionals ... don't know more about their subject matter than the general population." Except when they do.
* "Our minds do not seem made to think and introspect." Except when they do.
* "Few reward acts of prevention." Except when they do.
* "No technologies of note came from design and planning." Except when they do.
* "The bell curve ignores large deviations, it cannot handle them." Except when used in statistics.
* "Stories are far more potent than ideas." Except when they're not.
* "Our world is dominated by the extreme, the unknown, and the very improbable." Except when it's not.
* "Reality is not Mediocristan [Gaussian]." Except when it is.
* "We tend to forget what we know." Except when we don't.
* "There is no such animal as corroborative evidence." Except that there is.
Straw man.
To see this logical fallacy in action, simply reply "Speak for yourself, asshole!" to each.
* "Platonicity is what makes us think we understand more than we actually do."
* "People in the classroom ... don't realize what's important, and what's not."
* "Academics in abstract disciplines depend on one another's opinion without external checks."
* "We lack imagination and repress it in others."
* "We spend out time engaged in small talk, focusing on the known and the repeated."
* "We tend to treat our knowledge as personal property, to be protected and defended."
* "People talk about correlation as if it were something real."
* "Scientists may be in the business of laughing at their predecessors."
* "My readers and I are laughing at the present state of social knowledge."
* "Hume ... puts to shame almost all current thinkers, and certainly the entire German graduate curriculum."
* "Statisticians, it has been shown, tend to leave their brains in the classroom and engage in the most trivial inferential errors once they are let out on the streets."
Grand conspiracy theory.
* "Scholars are judged mostly on how many times their work is referenced in other people's work... it's an I quote you, you quote me type of business." The first claim is only partially true. The reputation of an author is judged by their published work, but the products of science are ideas. These ideas are, in the scientific literature, judged primarily by their content. In science, a humble patent clerk can become the biggest name in theoretical physics by having the right idea. The accusation of tit-for-tat citation is ludicrous. Speak for yourself, Taleb!
* "Chapter 15: The Bell Curve, That Great Intellectual Fraud." He rails against misuse of the bell curve by those "who wear dark suits" without ever giving a single god damn specific example. He accuses whole fields of study, like economics, of being rife with mathematical theatrics. If that's true I'd love to read about it. But he offers no evidence for this, and is more guilty of this particular offense than any person I know.
* "In my mind mathematicians, trained for certainties, had no business dealing in randomness." By which he means non-Gaussian statistics. Which is an area of mathematics. Very much the mathematician's business!
Bullshit jargon
* "Twin tail" = bell curve.
* "Headwind" = uncertainty of outliers in a power law.
* "Scalables" AKA "Mandelbrotian" = scale free models.
* "Mediocristan" vs. "Extremistan" = Gaussian vs. power laws.
* "Silent evidence" = publication bias, etc.
* "Nerd knowledge" = things Taleb disagrees with.
* "Confirmation problem" = problem of induction.
Special pleading.
Ignoring disconfirming evidence like the exceptions to the professed rule.
* "Certain professionals ... don't know more about their subject matter than the general population." Except when they do.
* "Our minds do not seem made to think and introspect." Except when they do.
* "Few reward acts of prevention." Except when they do.
* "No technologies of note came from design and planning." Except when they do.
* "The bell curve ignores large deviations, it cannot handle them." Except when used in statistics.
* "Stories are far more potent than ideas." Except when they're not.
* "Our world is dominated by the extreme, the unknown, and the very improbable." Except when it's not.
* "Reality is not Mediocristan [Gaussian]." Except when it is.
* "We tend to forget what we know." Except when we don't.
* "There is no such animal as corroborative evidence." Except that there is.
Straw man.
To see this logical fallacy in action, simply reply "Speak for yourself, asshole!" to each.
* "Platonicity is what makes us think we understand more than we actually do."
* "People in the classroom ... don't realize what's important, and what's not."
* "Academics in abstract disciplines depend on one another's opinion without external checks."
* "We lack imagination and repress it in others."
* "We spend out time engaged in small talk, focusing on the known and the repeated."
* "We tend to treat our knowledge as personal property, to be protected and defended."
* "People talk about correlation as if it were something real."
* "Scientists may be in the business of laughing at their predecessors."
* "My readers and I are laughing at the present state of social knowledge."
* "Hume ... puts to shame almost all current thinkers, and certainly the entire German graduate curriculum."
* "Statisticians, it has been shown, tend to leave their brains in the classroom and engage in the most trivial inferential errors once they are let out on the streets."
Grand conspiracy theory.
* "Scholars are judged mostly on how many times their work is referenced in other people's work... it's an I quote you, you quote me type of business." The first claim is only partially true. The reputation of an author is judged by their published work, but the products of science are ideas. These ideas are, in the scientific literature, judged primarily by their content. In science, a humble patent clerk can become the biggest name in theoretical physics by having the right idea. The accusation of tit-for-tat citation is ludicrous. Speak for yourself, Taleb!
* "Chapter 15: The Bell Curve, That Great Intellectual Fraud." He rails against misuse of the bell curve by those "who wear dark suits" without ever giving a single god damn specific example. He accuses whole fields of study, like economics, of being rife with mathematical theatrics. If that's true I'd love to read about it. But he offers no evidence for this, and is more guilty of this particular offense than any person I know.
* "In my mind mathematicians, trained for certainties, had no business dealing in randomness." By which he means non-Gaussian statistics. Which is an area of mathematics. Very much the mathematician's business!
Bullshit jargon
* "Twin tail" = bell curve.
* "Headwind" = uncertainty of outliers in a power law.
* "Scalables" AKA "Mandelbrotian" = scale free models.
* "Mediocristan" vs. "Extremistan" = Gaussian vs. power laws.
* "Silent evidence" = publication bias, etc.
* "Nerd knowledge" = things Taleb disagrees with.
* "Confirmation problem" = problem of induction.
December 9, 2019
If you skipped your Systems, Statistics, or Random Variables classes in college, or if you think you know more than everyone else on Wall Street, then read this book. It will reaffirm what you already know. To the rest of you: this book will reaffirm what you thought you knew when you were 5 or 6...with an updated vocabulary.
I put this book down after the first chapter, but thought I would give it another chance, that I was being unfair. When I read the second chapter (which is a metaphor for what Taleb thinks is him) I puked in my shirt. This man is the most conceited person I think I've discovered through reading his garbage hypothesis. If I met Taleb, I would recommend that he read some other theories on random variables (why does he use Gaussian distribution as the only example of random distribution?), systems theory, and the scientific theory. He apparently was sleeping though these discussions.
So, not only was this book difficult to read due to the fact that Taleb was obsessed with how right he was, but the missing details and theories and general disregard for EVERYTHING that happened before him forced me to close this book, hand it to my roommate to sell on Amazon, take a few days to cool off, and then write this review.
Thank God I am not an editor.
I put this book down after the first chapter, but thought I would give it another chance, that I was being unfair. When I read the second chapter (which is a metaphor for what Taleb thinks is him) I puked in my shirt. This man is the most conceited person I think I've discovered through reading his garbage hypothesis. If I met Taleb, I would recommend that he read some other theories on random variables (why does he use Gaussian distribution as the only example of random distribution?), systems theory, and the scientific theory. He apparently was sleeping though these discussions.
So, not only was this book difficult to read due to the fact that Taleb was obsessed with how right he was, but the missing details and theories and general disregard for EVERYTHING that happened before him forced me to close this book, hand it to my roommate to sell on Amazon, take a few days to cool off, and then write this review.
Thank God I am not an editor.
March 16, 2010
This felt like it was trying to be the next or and just failed spectacularly, on all counts. Most importantly, perhaps, was that it was dull and a chore to read. In the little footnotes suggesting a chapter was unneccessary for a nontechnical reader and could be skipped (read: you are too dumb to understand this chapter, so don't even bother), like Chapter 15, I gladly took his advice because it meant one less chapter to slog through. I finished it out of a perverse desire to finish things, nothing more.
My biggest complaint with the book, though, was that the author came across as a giant tool. He loves to use sarcastic quotes to criticize things like "prestigious" institutions (despite mentioning multiple times that he himself attended the prestigious Wharton School). He also often makes unecessary--and often derogatory--asides in parantheses (I do the same thing, but I'm not a published author who has things like an editor and a paycheck)and snipes at newspapers, the French, Harold Bloom, academics, CEOs, MBAs/businessmen (but did I mention he attended Wharton?), the rich, the Nobel Prize, etc. Whether his hatreds are justified or not, the way he does it comes across as terribly juvenile and he never misses a cheap shot. He appears to see himself as some kind of persecuted genius, taking on the establishment. He loves nothing more than describing how some so-called "expert" goes apopleptic when confronted with his brilliant Black Swan idea (which he keeps reminding you he came up with at the age of 22) and fantasizes about dropping rats down overly serious people's shirts to watch them squirm (is he actually 12 or just a bastard? who knows).
Overall he comes across as arrogant, condescending, smug, self-righteous and incredibly pretentious, the kind of person you get trapped in conversation with at a party who will either goad and/or mock you for his own amusment or bore you with self-indulgent pontifications that include name-dropping obscure writers to impress upon you how smart he is.
He also seems to be something of a failed/aspiring novelist, as he decides to make up the character of Yevgenia Krasnova, a fictional novelist whose book was a Black Swan, something that no one wanted to publish but then became a huge hit. Why does he have to make her up? The publishing industry is littered with these people, it would be simple to use a real person. But not only does he make her up (and does not even bother to tell you she is fake until the following chapter) but he gives several pages to her biography, invents fake friends and THEIR biographies and then comes back to her AGAIN, all with no real relevance. These fictional characters could've been cut out entirely or replaced with real people and not affected the book at all. They are simply another one of his petty self-indulgences.
I could have saved time, money and my blood pressure level and probably been more entertained by simply reading the book's entry on Wikipedia. The central idea is good, but the execution oh-so-isn't.
My biggest complaint with the book, though, was that the author came across as a giant tool. He loves to use sarcastic quotes to criticize things like "prestigious" institutions (despite mentioning multiple times that he himself attended the prestigious Wharton School). He also often makes unecessary--and often derogatory--asides in parantheses (I do the same thing, but I'm not a published author who has things like an editor and a paycheck)and snipes at newspapers, the French, Harold Bloom, academics, CEOs, MBAs/businessmen (but did I mention he attended Wharton?), the rich, the Nobel Prize, etc. Whether his hatreds are justified or not, the way he does it comes across as terribly juvenile and he never misses a cheap shot. He appears to see himself as some kind of persecuted genius, taking on the establishment. He loves nothing more than describing how some so-called "expert" goes apopleptic when confronted with his brilliant Black Swan idea (which he keeps reminding you he came up with at the age of 22) and fantasizes about dropping rats down overly serious people's shirts to watch them squirm (is he actually 12 or just a bastard? who knows).
Overall he comes across as arrogant, condescending, smug, self-righteous and incredibly pretentious, the kind of person you get trapped in conversation with at a party who will either goad and/or mock you for his own amusment or bore you with self-indulgent pontifications that include name-dropping obscure writers to impress upon you how smart he is.
He also seems to be something of a failed/aspiring novelist, as he decides to make up the character of Yevgenia Krasnova, a fictional novelist whose book was a Black Swan, something that no one wanted to publish but then became a huge hit. Why does he have to make her up? The publishing industry is littered with these people, it would be simple to use a real person. But not only does he make her up (and does not even bother to tell you she is fake until the following chapter) but he gives several pages to her biography, invents fake friends and THEIR biographies and then comes back to her AGAIN, all with no real relevance. These fictional characters could've been cut out entirely or replaced with real people and not affected the book at all. They are simply another one of his petty self-indulgences.
I could have saved time, money and my blood pressure level and probably been more entertained by simply reading the book's entry on Wikipedia. The central idea is good, but the execution oh-so-isn't.
December 15, 2024
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亘丨孬 丿乇 賲賵乇丿 讴鬲丕亘 芦賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴禄 乇丕 亘丕 丿賵 丕亘乇丕夭 鬲兀爻賮 丌睾丕夭 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗁�:
鈥� 丕賵賱 丕蹖賳讴賴 亘賴 賳馗乇賲 禺賵丕賳丿賳 丌孬丕乇 胤丕賱亘 亘乇丕蹖 亘蹖卮鬲乇 丌丿賲鈥屬囏� 賲賮蹖丿 丕爻鬲. 丨乇賮 乇蹖賵蹖賵蹖 賯亘賱蹖 乇丕 鬲讴乇丕乇 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗁�: 賴賲賴鈥屰� 丨乇賮鈥屬囏й� 賳爻蹖賲 胤丕賱亘貙 氐丿丿乇氐丿 丨乇賮 丨爻丕亘 賳蹖爻鬲 賵 亘賴 亘乇禺蹖 亘丕蹖丿 亘丕 丿蹖丿賴鈥屰� 鬲乇丿蹖丿 賵 鬲賮讴乇 丕賳鬲賯丕丿蹖 賳诏乇蹖爻鬲貙 賵賱蹖 讴賱蹖鬲 丨乇賮鈥屬囏й屫� 亘爻蹖丕乇 噩丕賱亘 賵 丌賲賵夭賳丿賴 丕爻鬲 賵 賴賲賴 亘賴 禺氐賵氐 賲乇丿賲賽 賲丕 賳蹖丕夭 亘賴 趩賳蹖賳 丿蹖丿蹖 亘賴 噩賴丕賳 丿丕乇賳丿. 丨丕賱丕 讴噩丕蹖卮 噩丕蹖 鬲兀爻賮 丿丕乇丿責 丕蹖賳讴賴 賲賵囟賵毓 丌孬丕乇 胤丕賱亘 亘乇丕蹖 亘蹖卮鬲乇 賲乇丿賲 亘賴 丕賳丿丕夭賴鈥屰� 讴丕賮蹖 噩匕丕亘 賳蹖爻鬲 賵 賳賲蹖鈥屫堌з嗁� 亘丕 禺蹖丕賱 乇丕丨鬲 丌賳 乇丕 亘賴 賴賲賴 倬蹖卮賳賴丕丿 讴賳賲貙 蹖毓賳蹖 丕诏乇 賮賯胤 賴賲蹖賳 噩賱丿 乇丕 賴賲 丿乇 賳馗乇 亘诏蹖乇蹖賲貙 胤丕賱亘 鄣郯郯 氐賮丨賴 乇丕噩毓 亘賴 鬲氐丕丿賮貙 丕丨鬲賲丕賱丕鬲貙 毓丿賲 賯胤毓蹖鬲貙 賳诏丕賴 卮讴鈥屭必� 賵 噩賴賱賽 賲丕 丨乇賮 夭丿賴 丕爻鬲貙 賲賵囟賵毓丕鬲蹖 讴賴 亘蹖卮 丕夭 丌賳趩賴 賮讴乇 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗃屬� 賲賴賲 賴爻鬲賳丿. 丨鬲蹖 胤丕賱亘 亘丕 丌賵乇丿賳 賲孬丕賱鈥屬囏� 賵 丿丕爻鬲丕賳鈥屬囏� 賵 禺賵卮賲夭诏蹖鈥屬囏й屫� 讴賵卮蹖丿賴 讴鬲丕亘 乇丕 丕夭 丨丕賱鬲 丌讴丕丿賲蹖讴 蹖丕 讴爻丕賱鬲鈥屫ㄘж� 禺丕乇噩 讴賳丿貙 丕賲丕 禺賵丿賲丕賳蹖賲貙 趩賳丿 丿乇氐丿 丕夭 禺賵丕賳賳丿诏丕賳 趩賳蹖賳 賲賵囟賵毓丕鬲蹖 乇丕 噩丕賱亘 賲蹖鈥屫з嗁嗀�
丌孬丕乇 胤丕賱亘 賯乇丕乇 丕爻鬲 噩賴賱 賲丕 乇丕 亘賴 賲丕 蹖丕丿丌賵乇蹖 讴賳丿貙 賯乇丕乇 丕爻鬲 賳蹖乇賵蹖 卮讴鈥屭必й屰� 賵 鬲賵丕囟毓 賮讴乇蹖 乇丕 丿乇 賲丕 鬲賯賵蹖鬲 讴賳丿. 賯乇丕乇 丕爻鬲 亘賴 賲丕 亘蹖丕賲賵夭丿 讴賴 亘爻蹖丕乇蹖 丕夭 倬蹖趩蹖丿诏蹖鈥屬囏й� 噩賴丕賳 乇丕 賳賲蹖鈥屫з嗃屬呚� 亘賱讴賴 賲丕 乇丕 鬲亘丿蹖賱 讴賳丿 亘賴 芦丌賳讴爻 讴賴 賳丿丕賳丿 賵 亘丿丕賳丿 讴賴 賳丿丕賳丿禄 (讴賴 亘乇禺賱丕賮 卮毓乇卮貙 賲毓賯賵賱鈥屫臂屬� 诏夭蹖賳賴 丕爻鬲!)
胤丕賱亘 丿乇 丕蹖賳 乇丕賴 丕夭 丕賳賵丕毓 賲孬丕賱鈥屬囏� 賵 丿蹖丿诏丕賴鈥屬囏� 亘賴乇賴 賲蹖鈥屫ㄘ必屘� 鄣郯郯 氐賮丨賴 氐丨亘鬲 丿乇亘丕乇賴鈥屰� 趩賳蹖賳 賲賵囟賵毓蹖 讴丕乇 爻丕丿賴鈥屫й� 賳蹖爻鬲貙 賵賱蹖 賳賲蹖鈥屫堌з嗁� 胤丕賱亘 乇丕 亘賴 夭蹖丕丿賴鈥屭堐屰� 賲鬲賴賲 讴賳賲貙 亘丨孬 亘爻蹖丕乇 倬蹖趩蹖丿賴 丕爻鬲 賵 胤丕賱亘 賲蹖鈥屭┵堌簇� 丕蹖賳 倬蹖趩蹖丿诏蹖鈥屬囏й� 賲禺鬲賱賮 乇丕 亘乇丕蹖 禺賵丕賳賳丿賴 鬲卮乇蹖丨 讴賳丿. 丕賲丕 讴鬲丕亘 賲賲讴賳 丕爻鬲 亘乇丕蹖 亘爻蹖丕乇蹖 丕夭 禺賵丕賳賳丿诏丕賳 禺爻鬲賴鈥屭┵嗁嗀� 亘丕卮丿.
鈥� 鬲兀爻賮 丿賵賲 賴賲 丕蹖賳讴賴 芦賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴禄 丕丨鬲賲丕賱丕賸 丿乇 丨丕賱 丨丕囟乇 賲毓乇賵賮鈥屫臂屬� 賵 倬乇賮乇賵卮鈥屫臂屬� 讴鬲丕亘 賳爻蹖賲 胤丕賱亘 丿乇 丿賳蹖丕爻鬲貙 丕賲丕 賲鬲兀爻賮丕賳賴 鬲乇噩賲賴鈥屰� 卮丕蹖爻鬲賴鈥屫й� 丿乇 夭亘丕賳 賮丕乇爻蹖 賳丿丕乇丿. 倬爻 丕诏乇 亘賴 夭亘丕賳 丕賳诏賱蹖爻蹖 賲爻賱胤 賴爻鬲蹖丿貙 丕丨鬲賲丕賱丕賸 賳爻禺賴鈥屰� 丕氐賱蹖 讴鬲丕亘 乇丕 賯丕亘賱 賮賴賲鈥屫� 禺賵丕賴蹖丿 蹖丕賮鬲.(鬲乇噩賲賴鈥屰� 賲賳 丕夭 丕氐胤賱丕丨丕鬲 賵 毓亘丕乇鬲鈥屬囏й� 丕蹖賳 讴鬲丕亘貙 讴丕賲賱丕賸 賲賳鈥屫必①堌必� 賵 亘乇 丕爻丕爻 賮賴賲 禺賵丿賲 丕爻鬲 丕爻鬲. 卮丕蹖丿 鬲乇噩賲賴鈥屬囏й� 亘丕夭丕乇 丕夭 賲丕賱 賲賳 亘賴鬲乇 亘丕卮丿)
倬蹖卮 丕夭 賲乇賵乇 讴鬲丕亘 丕蹖賳 乇丕 賴賲 亘诏賵蹖賲 讴賴 亘賴 賳馗乇賲 亘丨孬鈥屬囏й� 芦賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴禄 讴丕賲賱丕賸 丿乇 丿賳亘丕賱賴鈥屰� 芦賮乇蹖亘鈥屫堌必団€屰� 鬲氐丕丿賮禄 賳賵卮鬲賴 卮丿賴 賵 诏丕賴蹖 亘丕 丌賳 賴賲鈥屬举堌簇з嗃� 丿丕乇丿貙 倬爻 丕诏乇 賲蹖鈥屫堌з囒屫� 賮賴賲 亘賴鬲乇蹖 丕夭 丕蹖賳 讴鬲丕亘 丿丕卮鬲賴 亘丕卮蹖丿貙 亘賴鬲乇 丕爻鬲 丕夭 賮乇蹖亘 禺賵乇丿賴鈥屰� 鬲氐丕丿賮 卮乇賵毓 讴賳蹖丿.
賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴 趩蹖爻鬲責
噩賲賱賴鈥屰� 芦賴賲賴鈥屰� 賯賵賴丕 爻賮蹖丿 賴爻鬲賳丿禄 乇丕 丿乇 賳馗乇 亘诏蹖乇蹖丿.
賲丕 爻丕賱鈥屬囏� 亘賴 丿乇爻鬲蹖 丕蹖賳 噩賲賱賴 亘丕賵乇 丿丕卮鬲賴鈥屫й屬呚� 夭蹖乇丕 爻丕賱鈥屬囏� 賲卮丕賴丿丕鬲蹖 鬲讴乇丕乇 卮賵賳丿賴 丿丕卮鬲賴鈥屫й屬�: 賲卮丕賴丿賴鈥屰� 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻賮蹖丿.
賵 賲卮丕賴丿賴 賵 丌诏丕賴蹖 禺丕氐蹖 丕夭 賯賵賴丕蹖 睾蹖乇 爻賮蹖丿 賳丿丕卮鬲賴鈥屫й屬呚� 賲丕 爻丕賱鈥屬囏� 丿乇 賲賵乇丿 賯賵賴丕蹖 睾蹖乇 爻賮蹖丿 丿乇 噩賴賱 亘賴 爻乇 賲蹖鈥屫ㄘ必屬呚� 趩賵賳 賲卮丕賴丿丕鬲 鬲讴乇丕乇 卮賵賳丿賴 亘賴 賲丕 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻賮蹖丿 乇丕 賳卮丕賳 賲蹖鈥屫ж�.
丕賲丕 噩賲賱賴鈥屰� 芦賴賲賴鈥屰� 賯賵賴丕 爻賮蹖丿 賴爻鬲賳丿禄 賳丕诏賴丕賳 亘賴 乇丕丨鬲蹖 鬲亘丿蹖賱 亘賴 蹖讴 毓亘丕乇鬲 賳丕丿乇爻鬲 卮丿: 夭賲丕賳蹖 讴賴 賯丕乇賴鈥屰� 丕爻鬲乇丕賱蹖丕 讴卮賮 卮丿 賵 亘乇丕蹖 丕賵賱蹖賳 亘丕乇 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴 乇丕 丿蹖丿蹖賲. 丨鬲蹖 賲卮丕賴丿賴鈥屰� 蹖讴 賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴 賴賲 賲蹖鈥屫堌з嗀池� 丕夭 賳馗乇 賲賳胤賯蹖 噩賲賱賴鈥屰� 芦賴賲賴鈥屰� 賯賵賴丕 爻賮蹖丿 賴爻鬲賳丿禄 乇丕 鬲亘丿蹖賱 讴賳丿 亘賴 蹖讴 噩賲賱賴鈥屰� 賳丕丿乇爻鬲.
丕蹖賳 賲孬丕賱 乇丕 亘賴 噩賴丕賳 賵丕賯毓蹖 賲蹖鈥屫①堌臂屬� 賵 倬丿蹖丿賴鈥屰� 賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴 乇丕 趩賳蹖賳 鬲毓乇蹖賮 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗃屬�:
郾賭 賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴 倬丿蹖丿賴鈥屫й� 丕爻鬲 禺丕乇噩 丕夭 丕夭 賲卮丕賴丿丕鬲 賵 鬲噩乇亘蹖丕鬲 賲丕 鬲丕 夭賲丕賳 賵賯賵毓 丌賳. 亘賴 毓亘丕乇鬲蹖 禺丕乇噩 丕夭 趩丕乇趩賵亘 賵 丕爻鬲孬賳丕蹖蹖 賵 賲鬲賮丕賵鬲 亘賴 賳馗乇 賲蹖鈥屫必池�.
鄄賭 賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴 丕孬乇 亘爻蹖丕乇 亘夭乇诏蹖 丿丕乇丿. 丿乇 賲孬丕賱賲丕賳 丿蹖丿蹖賲 讴賴 賮賯胤 賲卮丕賴丿賴鈥屰� 蹖讴 賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴 丿乇 蹖讴 賱丨馗賴 鬲賵丕賳爻鬲 爻丕賱鈥屬囏� 鬲噩乇亘賴鈥屰� 丕賳爻丕賳 丿乇 毓亘丕乇鬲 芦賴賲賴鈥屰� 賯賵賴丕 爻賮蹖丿 賴爻鬲賳丿禄 乇丕 鬲亘丿蹖賱 亘賴 蹖讴 诏夭丕乇賴鈥屰� 賳丕丿乇爻鬲 讴賳丿.
鄢賭 亘毓丿 丕夭 賵賯賵毓 倬丿蹖丿賴鈥屰� 賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴 丕賳爻丕賳 丿爻鬲 亘賴 鬲賵噩蹖賴 趩乇丕蹖蹖賽 賵賯賵毓 丌賳 賲蹖鈥屫操嗀� 丕賳诏丕乇 丕夭 丕賵賱 賯丕亘賱 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 亘賵丿賴 賵 賵賯賵毓 丌賳 毓噩蹖亘 賳亘賵丿賴 丕爻鬲! 趩賳丕賳趩賴 丨丕賱丕 賲卮丕賴丿賴鈥屰� 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴 亘乇丕蹖 倬乇賳丿賴鈥屫促嗀ж池з� 讴丕賲賱丕賸 毓丕丿蹖 卮丿賴 賵 賵噩賵丿卮丕賳 亘丿蹖賴蹖 亘賴 賳馗乇 賲蹖鈥屫必池�.
卮丕蹖丿 亘丕 禺賵丿鬲丕賳 賮讴乇 讴賳蹖丿 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й� 賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴 丿乇 噩賴丕賳 丕爻鬲孬賳丕 賵 讴賲蹖丕亘鈥屫з嗀� 賵 丕賴賲蹖鬲 趩賳丿丕賳蹖 賳丿丕乇賳丿貙 賵賱蹖 丿乇 賵丕賯毓 鬲賯乇蹖亘丕賸 賴賲賴鈥屰� 乇賵蹖丿丕丿賴丕蹖 賲賴賲 丿賳蹖丕 賳賵毓蹖 賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴鈥屫з嗀�:
賲賴賲鈥屫臂屬� 丕蹖丿賴鈥屬囏ж� 讴卮賮蹖丕鬲貙 丕禺鬲乇丕毓丕鬲貙 馗賴賵乇 丕丿蹖丕賳貙 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й� 鬲丕乇蹖禺蹖貙 馗賴賵乇 賵 爻賯賵胤 丨讴賵賲鬲鈥屬囏ж� 丕鬲賮丕賯丕鬲 賲賴賲蹖 讴賴 丿乇 夭賳丿诏蹖賽 卮禺氐蹖 賲丕 賲蹖鈥屫з佖嗀� 賵 丨鬲蹖 禺賵丿賽 卮賲丕貙 賴賲賴 賲孬丕賱鈥屬囏й屰� 丕夭 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴 賴爻鬲賳丿. 丌賳趩賴 夭賳丿诏蹖 賲丕 乇丕 賲蹖鈥屫池ж藏� 賲丕 锟斤拷乇 賵丕賯毓 賳鬲蹖噩賴鈥屰� 丕賳亘丕卮鬲賴 卮丿賳 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴 丕爻鬲.
丿乇 噩賱丿 賯亘賱 丿蹖丿蹖賲 讴賴 噩賴丕賳 倬蹖賵爻鬲賴 丿乇 丨丕賱 倬蹖趩蹖丿賴鈥屫� 卮丿賳 丕爻鬲 賵 丕蹖賳 倬蹖趩蹖丿诏蹖 倬爻 丕夭 丕賳賯賱丕亘 氐賳毓鬲蹖 爻乇毓鬲 亘蹖卮鬲乇蹖 賴賲 诏乇賮鬲賴 賵 賲丕 丕賳爻丕賳鈥屬囏� 亘乇丕蹖 亘乇禺賵乇丿 亘丕 丕蹖賳 倬蹖趩蹖丿诏蹖 胤乇丕丨蹖 賳卮丿賴鈥屫й屬�.賲丕 毓丕丿鬲 丿丕乇蹖賲 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴 乇丕 賳丕丿蹖丿賴 亘诏蹖乇蹖賲貙 丕賳诏丕乇 倬丿蹖丿賴鈥屫й� 毓丕丿蹖 賵 乇賵夭賲乇賴鈥屫з嗀�. 亘丕 倬蹖趩蹖丿賴鈥屫� 卮丿賳 噩賴丕賳貙 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴 亘蹖卮鬲乇蹖 賴賲 馗丕賴乇 賲蹖鈥屫促堎嗀�.
亘賵賯賱賲賵賳賽 爻丕丿賴鈥屬勝堌� 噩卮賳 卮讴乇诏夭丕乇蹖!
亘賵賯賱賲賵賳蹖 乇丕 鬲氐賵乇 讴賳蹖丿 讴賴 丕夭 乇賵夭 丕賵賱 鬲賵賱丿 亘乇丕蹖 丌賳 讴賴 禺賵乇丕讴 噩卮賳 卮讴乇诏夭丕乇蹖 卮賵丿貙 丿乇 蹖讴 賲夭乇毓賴 倬乇賵乇卮 丿丕丿賴 賲蹖鈥屫促堌�.
賲卮丕賴丿丕鬲 亘賵賯賱賲賵賳 丕夭 丕亘鬲丿丕 丕蹖賳 亘賵丿賴: 賴乇乇賵夭 丕賳爻丕賳鈥屬囏� 亘賴 丕賵 丌亘 賵 睾匕丕 賲蹖鈥屫囐嗀� 賵 丕夭 丕賵 賳诏賴丿丕乇蹖 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗁嗀�.
丕賵 賴乇乇賵夭 丕賳爻丕賳鈥屬囏й� 賲賴乇亘丕賳 乇丕 亘丕 乇賮鬲丕乇蹖 鬲讴乇丕乇卮賵賳丿賴 賲蹖鈥屫ㄛ屬嗀� 賵 丕夭 賲卮丕賴丿丕鬲 乇賵夭丕賳賴鈥屫ж� 賳鬲蹖噩賴鈥屭屫臂� 賵 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗀�:
丕賳爻丕賳鈥屬囏� 賴賲賵丕乇賴 賲乇丕賯亘 賵 丨丕賲蹖 賲賳 賴爻鬲賳丿!
賳鬲蹖噩賴鈥屭屫臂� 亘賵賯賱賲賵賳 爻丕丿賴鈥屸€屬勝堌� 賯氐賴鈥屰� 賲丕 鬲丕 乇賵夭 毓蹖丿 卮讴乇诏夭丕乇蹖 丿乇爻鬲 丕爻鬲貙 蹖毓賳蹖 氐丿賴丕 乇賵夭 賲卮丕賴丿賴鈥屰� 鬲讴乇丕乇 卮賵賳丿賴.
丕賲丕 丿乇 乇賵夭 毓蹖丿 卮讴乇诏夭丕乇蹖 賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴蹖 丕夭 乇丕賴 賲蹖鈥屫必池� 讴賴 賴賲賴鈥屰� 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃屸€屬囏й� 诏匕卮鬲賴 乇丕 亘丕胤賱 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗀�: 讴卮鬲賴鈥屫簇嗀� 亘賴 賵爻蹖賱賴鈥屰� 趩丕賯賵 賵 禺賵乇丿賴 卮丿賳卮 鬲賵爻胤 賴賲丕賳 丕賳爻丕賳鈥屬囏й� 賲賴乇亘丕賳!
丕诏乇 亘賵賯賱賲賵賳 爻丕丿賴鈥屬勝堌� 賲丕 丿爻鬲 亘賴 賲丨丕爻亘賴鈥屰� 丕丨鬲賲丕賱 賵賯賵毓 丕蹖賳 賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴 亘丕 鬲賵噩賴 亘賴 丿丕丿賴鈥屬囏й� 倬蹖卮蹖賳 亘夭賳丿(讴賴 賳亘丕蹖丿 亘夭賳丿!)貙 丕丨鬲賲丕賱 丌賳 乇丕 賳夭丿蹖讴 亘賴 氐賮乇 賲丨丕爻亘賴 禺賵丕賴丿 讴乇丿貙 丕賲丕 丕夭 賳诏丕賴 禺賵乇賳丿诏丕賳賽 丕賵 丕蹖賳 丕丨鬲賲丕賱 氐丿丿乇氐丿 亘賵丿!
賲丕 丕賳爻丕賳鈥屬囏� 賴賲 丕夭 賳馗乇 爻丕丿賴鈥屬勝堌� 丿爻鬲 讴賲蹖 丕夭 亘賵賯賱賲賵賳賽 賯氐賴 賳丿丕乇蹖賲 賵 亘乇丕蹖 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й屰� 讴賴 丿乇 匕丕鬲 禺賵丿 賯丕亘賱 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 賳蹖爻鬲賳丿貙 亘丕 賲卮丕賴丿賴鈥屰� 丿丕丿賴鈥屬囏й� 鬲讴乇丕乇 卮賵賳丿賴 丿爻鬲 亘賴 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃屸€屬囏й� 賲蹖鈥屫操嗃屬� 讴賴 亘丕 乇爻蹖丿賳 賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴貙 賳賯卮 亘乇 丌亘 賲蹖鈥屫促堎嗀� 賵 丿乇 亘爻蹖丕乇蹖 丕夭 賲賵丕乇丿 毓丿賲鈥屬傌坟观屫€屬囏й屰� 乇丕 丕賳丿丕夭賴 賲蹖鈥屭屫臂屬� 讴賴 丕爻丕爻丕賸 賯丕亘賱 丕賳丿丕夭賴鈥屭屫臂� 賳蹖爻鬲賳丿. 賲丕 亘賴 噩丕蹖 蹖丕丿诏乇賮鬲賳賽 賯丕賳賵賳賽 毓丿賲賽 鬲賵丕賳丕蹖蹖賽 賲丕 丿乇 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃屬� 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴貙 亘乇 丿丕丿賴鈥屬囏� 鬲讴蹖賴 賲蹖鈥屫操嗃屬� 鬲丕 亘丕 丌賳鈥屬囏� 睾蹖乇賯丕亘賱 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃屸€屬囏� 乇丕 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 讴賳蹖賲.
趩乇丕 丿乇 亘乇丕亘乇 鬲氐丕丿賮丕鬲 賳丕亘蹖賳丕蹖蹖賲責
丿乇 噩賱丿 賯亘賱蹖 賴賲 丕蹖賳 鬲卅賵乇蹖 賲胤乇丨 卮丿 讴賴 匕賴賳 賲丕 丕夭 賳馗乇 夭蹖爻鬲鈥屫促嗀ж� 賵 鬲讴丕賲賱蹖 鬲賵丕賳丕蹖蹖 賴賲倬丕 卮丿賳 亘丕 倬蹖趩蹖丿诏蹖 乇賵夭丕賮夭賵賳 噩賴丕賳 乇丕 賳丿丕乇丿.
趩賳丿 賲賵囟賵毓 讴賴 亘丕毓孬 賳丕鬲賵丕賳蹖 匕賴賳 賲丕 丿乇 丿乇讴 倬蹖趩蹖丿诏蹖鈥屬囏� 賲蹖鈥屫促堎嗀� 乇丕 賲孬丕賱 賲蹖鈥屫操嗁�:
郾賭 鬲賵賴賲 丿丕賳丕蹖蹖: 賲乇丿賲 賮讴乇 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗁嗀� 賲蹖鈥屫з嗁嗀� 丿乇 噩賴丕賳 趩賴 乇賵蹖 賲蹖鈥屫囏� 噩賴丕賳蹖 讴賴 倬蹖趩蹖丿賴鈥屫� 賵 鬲氐丕丿賮蹖鈥屫� 丕夭 趩蹖夭蹖 丕爻鬲 讴賴 賮讴乇 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗃屬呚� 丿乇 丨丕賱蹖 讴賴 賲丕 丕賳爻丕賳鈥屬囏� 丕爻鬲丕丿 禺賵丿賮乇蹖亘蹖 賴爻鬲蹖賲!
鄄賭 賳诏丕賴 賲睾卮賵卮 诏匕卮鬲賴鈥屬嗂�: 亘毓丿 丕夭 賵賯賵毓 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴貙 賲乇丿賲 亘賴 诏匕卮鬲賴 賳诏丕賴 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗁嗀� 賵 賵賯賵毓 丌賳 乇丕 胤賵乇蹖 鬲賵噩蹖賴 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗁嗀� 丕賳诏丕乇 丕夭 賯亘賱 賯丕亘賱 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 賵 亘丿蹖賴蹖 亘賵丿賴 丕爻鬲. 丿乇 丨丕賱蹖 讴賴 倬蹖卮 丕夭 丌賳 讴爻蹖 丕夭 丌賳 禺亘乇 賳丿丕卮鬲賴 丕爻鬲.
鄢賭 丕乇夭卮 丿丕丿賳 亘蹖卮 丕夭 丨丿 亘賴 丿丕丿賴鈥屬囏� 賵 丕胤賱丕毓丕鬲蹖 讴賴 丿丕乇蹖賲貙 丕蹖賳 賳賯胤賴 囟毓賮 亘賴 禺氐賵氐 丿乇 賲賵乇丿 讴爻丕賳蹖 讴賴 禺賵丿 乇丕 賲鬲禺氐氐 丕賲賵乇 睾蹖乇賯丕亘賱 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 賲蹖鈥屫з嗁嗀� 賲卮丕賴丿賴 賲蹖鈥屫促堌�.
鄞賭 賲睾丕賱胤賴鈥屰� 乇賵丕蹖鬲 (narrative fallacy): 賲丕 毓丕丿鬲 丿丕乇蹖賲 丕夭 賲噩賲賵毓賴鈥屰� 丿丕丿賴鈥屬囏� 鬲賮爻蹖乇 賵 乇賵丕蹖鬲 亘蹖乇賵賳 亘讴卮蹖賲貙 丿乇 丨丕賱蹖 讴賴 亘毓囟蹖 丕夭 丿丕丿賴鈥屬囏� 鬲賮爻蹖乇 賵 賳鬲蹖噩賴鈥屰� 禺丕氐蹖 賳丿丕乇賳丿貙 蹖讴 賲孬丕賱賽 賲賴賲貙 丕蹖賳 丕爻鬲 讴賴 丿賵 倬丿蹖丿賴 亘丕 賴賲 賴賲亘爻鬲诏蹖 (correlation) 丿丕乇賳丿 賵 賲丕 丌賳 乇丕 亘賴 丕卮鬲亘丕賴 毓賱蹖鬲听 (causation) 賲丨爻賵亘 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗃屬�. 亘爻蹖丕乇蹖 丕夭 丿丕丿賴鈥屬囏� 丕爻丕爻丕賸 鬲氐丕丿賮蹖 丿乇 讴賳丕乇 賴賲 賯乇丕乇 诏乇賮鬲賴鈥屫з嗀� 賵 丨鬲蹖 賴賲鈥屫ㄘ池� 丿乇 賳馗乇 诏乇賮鬲賳卮丕賳 賳蹖夭 讴丕乇蹖 賳丕丿乇爻鬲 丕爻鬲. 賲丕 丿賵爻鬲 丿丕乇蹖賲 倬蹖趩蹖丿诏蹖鈥屬囏й� 噩賴丕賳 乇丕 丿乇 匕賴賳賲丕賳 鬲亘丿蹖賱 亘賴 蹖讴 乇賵丕蹖鬲 爻丕丿賴 讴賳蹖賲貙 丿乇 丨丕賱蹖 讴賴 亘爻蹖丕乇蹖 丕夭 倬蹖趩蹖丿诏蹖鈥屬囏� 賯丕亘賱 爻丕丿賴 卮丿賳 賳蹖爻鬲賳丿.
鄣賭 賲睾丕賱胤賴鈥屰� 亘丕夭蹖 (ludic fallacy): 賲丕 亘乇丕蹖 爻丕丿賴鈥屫池ж槽� 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й� 睾蹖乇賯丕亘賱 倬蹖鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃屫� 丕夭 鬲卅賵乇蹖鈥屬囏й� 亘丕夭蹖賽 爻丕丿賴 賵 蹖丕 賯賵丕賳蹖賳 丕丨鬲賲丕賱丕鬲 丿乇 賲賯蹖丕爻 賲丨丿賵丿 丕爻鬲賮丕丿賴 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗃屬� 賵 賳鬲丕蹖噩賲丕賳 乇丕 亘賴 讴賱 倬丿蹖丿賴 鬲毓賲蹖賲 賲蹖鈥屫囒屬�. 丿乇 丨丕賱蹖 讴賴 亘爻蹖丕乇蹖 丕夭 賲鬲睾蹖乇賴丕 賵 賲禺丿賵卮诏乇賴丕 亘乇丕蹖 賲丕 賳丕卮賳丕禺鬲賴鈥屫з嗀�. 賲丕 丨鬲蹖 丿賯蹖賯丕賸 賳賲蹖丿丕賳蹖賲 趩賴 賲鬲睾蹖乇賴丕蹖蹖 乇丕 丿乇 賲賵乇丿 賴乇 倬丿蹖丿賴 賳賲蹖鈥屫з嗃屬�(the unknown unknown)
賲蹖丕賳鈥屭必� 賵 丕賮乇丕胤鈥屭必�
胤丕賱亘 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й� 賲禺鬲賱賮 乇丕 亘賴 丿賵 丿爻鬲賴鈥屰� 賲蹖丕賳鈥屭必� (mediocristan) 賵 丕賮乇丕胤鈥屭必�(extremistan) 鬲賯爻蹖賲 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗀�.
倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й� 賲蹖丕賳鈥屭必� 丕夭 鬲賵夭蹖毓 賲賳馗賲蹖(賲孬賱丕 鬲賵夭蹖毓 賳賲賵丿丕乇 賲毓乇賵賮 夭賳诏賵賱賴鈥屫й�) 倬蹖乇賵蹖 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗁嗀� 鬲丕 丨丿蹖 賯丕亘賱 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 賵 鬲毓賲蹖賲 賴爻鬲賳丿貙 賵 亘蹖卮鬲乇蹖賳 賮乇丕賵丕賳蹖 乇丕 丿乇 芦賲蹖丕賳诏蹖賳禄 丿丕乇賳丿.
賲孬賱丕 鬲賵夭蹖毓 賯丿貙 蹖讴蹖 丕夭 丕蹖賳 丕蹖賳 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й� 賲蹖丕賳鈥屭必ж池�. 賲丕 丿乇 賴乇 噩丕賲毓賴 賲蹖鈥屫堌з嗃屬� 亘丕 丕賳丿丕夭賴鈥屭屫臂� 賳賲賵賳賴鈥屬囏й� 讴丕賮蹖 亘丕 鬲賯乇蹖亘 禺賵亘蹖 賳賲賵丿丕乇 鬲賵夭蹖毓 賯丿 丕賮乇丕丿 噩丕賲毓賴 乇丕 乇爻賲 讴賳蹖賲貙 亘蹖卮鬲乇 丕賮乇丕丿 賯丿蹖 賳夭丿蹖讴 亘賴 賲蹖丕賳诏蹖賳 丿丕乇賳丿貙 賵 賴乇趩賴 丕夭 賲蹖丕賳诏蹖賳 丿賵乇 卮賵蹖賲貙 鬲毓丿丕丿 丕賮乇丕丿 讴丕賴卮 賲蹖鈥屰屫жㄘ�. 賲丕 丕賳鬲馗丕乇 賵賯賵毓 賯賵鈥屬囏й� 爻蹖丕賴 乇丕 丿乇 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й� 賲蹖丕賳鈥屭必� 賳丿丕乇蹖賲. 亘乇禺蹖 丿蹖诏乇 丕夭 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й� 賲蹖丕賳鈥屭必�: 鬲賵夭蹖毓 賵夭賳貙 賲氐乇賮 讴丕賱乇蹖貙 丿乇丌賲丿 乇賵夭丕賳賴鈥屰� 蹖讴 賳丕賳賵丕 蹖丕 蹖讴 丿賳丿丕賳倬夭卮讴貙 鬲毓丿丕丿 鬲氐丕丿賮丕鬲 乇丕賳賳丿诏蹖貙 賳乇禺 賲乇诏 賵 賲蹖乇貙 囟乇蹖亘 賴賵卮蹖 賵 ...
丿乇 賲賯丕亘賱 丿乇 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й� 丕賮乇丕胤鈥屭必� 賲丕 賯丕丿乇 亘賴 乇爻賲 賳賲賵丿丕乇 丿乇爻鬲蹖 賳蹖爻鬲蹖賲貙 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴賽 鬲氐丕丿賮蹖 丕夭 乇丕賴 賲蹖鈥屫必迟嗀� 賵 鬲賵夭蹖毓 賲丕 乇丕 趩賳丕賳 鬲睾蹖蹖乇 賲蹖鈥屫囐嗀� 讴賴 丌賳 乇丕 睾蹖乇 賯丕亘賱 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗁嗀�. 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й� 丕賮乇丕胤鈥屭必� 亘賴 卮丿鬲 亘丕毓孬 賳丕亘乇丕亘乇蹖 賲蹖鈥屫促堎嗀�. 讴爻丕賳蹖 讴賴 丿乇 賲毓乇囟 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴 賲孬亘鬲 賯乇丕乇 诏蹖乇賳丿貙 倬丕丿丕卮 亘爻蹖丕乇 夭蹖丕丿蹖 賲蹖鈥屭屫辟嗀� 賵 讴爻丕賳蹖 讴賴 丿乇 賲毓乇囟 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴 賲賳賮蹖 賯乇丕乇 賲蹖鈥屭屫辟嗀� 亘賴 卮丿鬲 夭蹖丕賳 賲蹖鈥屫ㄛ屬嗁嗀�. 氐丨亘鬲 丕夭 賲蹖丕賳诏蹖賳 賵 賲蹖丕賳賴 賵 蹖丕賮鬲賳 鬲賵夭蹖毓 丕爻丕爻丕賸 讴丕乇蹖 丕卮鬲亘丕賴 丕爻鬲.賲孬丕賱鈥屬囏й屰� 丕夭 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й� 丕賮乇丕胤鈥屭必�:
孬乇賵鬲貙 賮乇賵卮 讴鬲丕亘 亘賴 丕夭丕蹖 賳賵蹖爻賳丿賴貙 賲蹖夭丕賳 卮賴乇鬲 爻賱亘乇蹖鬲蹖鈥屬囏ж� 噩賲毓蹖鬲 卮賴乇賴丕貙 賲蹖夭丕賳 丕爻鬲賮丕丿賴 丕夭 讴賱賲丕鬲 丿乇 賴乇 夭亘丕賳貙 鬲毓丿丕丿 讴爻丕賳蹖 讴賴 亘賴 賴乇 夭亘丕賳 氐丨亘鬲 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗁嗀� 賲蹖夭丕賳 禺爻丕乇丕鬲 夭賱夭賱賴鈥屬囏ж� 鬲毓丿丕丿 讴卮鬲賴鈥屬囏й� 噩賳诏蹖貙 亘丕夭丕乇鈥屬囏й� 賲丕賱蹖貙 賯蹖賲鬲 讴丕賲賵丿蹖鬲蹖鈥屸€屬囏ж� 賳乇禺 鬲賵乇賲貙 丿丕丿賴鈥屬囏й� 丕賯鬲氐丕丿蹖 賵...
丿乇 丿賳蹖丕蹖 賲丿乇賳貙 賴乇乇賵夭 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й� 丕賮乇丕胤鈥屭必� 亘蹖卮鬲乇 賲蹖鈥屫促堎嗀� 賵 丿賳蹖丕 倬蹖趩蹖丿賴鈥屫� 賲蹖鈥屫促堌�. 丕賲丕 匕賴賳 丕賳爻丕賳 亘賴 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й� 賲蹖丕賳鈥屭必� 毓丕丿鬲 丿丕乇丿貙 卮丕蹖丿 亘賴 丕蹖賳 禺丕胤乇 讴賴 賲丕 毓賱丕賯賴鈥屫й� 亘賴 丿蹖丿賳 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴 賳丿丕乇蹖賲.蹖讴 賳讴鬲賴鈥屰� 賲賴賲 丿蹖诏乇 丕蹖賳讴賴 丿乇 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й� 丕賮乇丕胤鈥屭必� 賳賲蹖鈥屫堌з� 亘丕 賳诏丕賴 亘乇丕亘乇蹖鈥屫堌з囏� 毓丿丕賱鬲蹖 鬲毓乇蹖賮 讴乇丿.
賳賲賵丿丕乇 噩匕丕亘 賵 賱毓賳鬲蹖賽 夭賳诏賵賱賴鈥屫й�!
丕丨鬲賲丕賱丕賸 亘丕 鬲賵夭蹖毓 賳乇賲丕賱 讴賴 亘丕 賳賲賵丿丕乇 賲毓乇賵賮 夭賳诏賵賱賴鈥屫й� 賳賲丕蹖卮 丿丕丿賴 賲蹖鈥屫促堌� 丌卮賳丕 亘丕卮蹖丿(亘賴 倬丕爻 鬲賱丕卮鈥屬囏й� 丌賯丕蹖 诏丕賵爻貙 鬲賵夭蹖毓 诏丕賵爻蹖 賴賲 賳丕賲蹖丿賴 賲蹖鈥屫促堌�)
丕爻鬲賮丕丿賴 丕夭 賲丨丕爻亘丕鬲 鬲賵夭蹖毓 賳乇賲丕賱 倬蹖卮乇賮鬲 亘夭乇诏蹖 丿乇 丌賲丕乇 賵 乇蹖丕囟蹖丕鬲 亘賵丿. 亘賴 讴賲讴 丕蹖賳 鬲賵夭蹖毓 賵 丕亘夭丕乇賴丕蹖卮(賲孬賱丕 丕賳丨乇丕賮 賲毓蹖丕乇) 鬲賵丕賳爻鬲蹖賲 亘爻蹖丕乇蹖 丕夭 倬丿蹖丿賴鈥屬囏� 乇丕 亘賴鬲乇 亘乇乇爻蹖 讴賳蹖賲. 賲卮讴賱 丕夭 噩丕蹖蹖 卮乇賵毓 卮丿 讴賴 亘蹖卮 丕夭 丨丿 丕夭 丕蹖賳 鬲賵夭蹖毓 丕爻鬲賮丕丿賴 讴乇丿蹖賲.
賲丕 亘賴 賵爻蹖賱賴鈥屰� 賲賳丨賳蹖 賱毓賳鬲蹖 夭賳诏賵賱賴鈥屫й� 讴賵乇 卮丿蹖賲 賵 丌賳 乇丕 亘乇丕蹖 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й屰� 丕爻鬲賮丕丿賴 讴乇丿蹖賲 讴賴 匕丕鬲丕賸 亘丕 鬲賵夭蹖毓 賳乇賲丕賱 賯丕亘賱 亘乇乇爻蹖 賳蹖爻鬲賳丿. 鬲賵夭蹖毓 賳乇賲丕賱 賮賯胤 亘乇丕蹖 亘毓囟蹖 丕夭 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й� 賲蹖丕賳鈥屭必� 賯丕亘賱 丕爻鬲賮丕丿賴 丕爻鬲 賵 賵賯鬲蹖 氐丨亘鬲 丕夭 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗃屬呚� 亘賴 賴蹖趩 丿乇丿蹖 賳賲蹖鈥屫堌必�.
賲賲讴賳 丕爻鬲 賮讴乇 讴賳蹖賲 丕禺鬲乇丕毓 讴丕賲倬蹖賵鬲乇 (賵 丨丕賱丕 賴賵卮 賲氐賳賵毓蹖) 亘賴 賲丕 丿乇 賲丨丕爻亘賴 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴 讴賲讴 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗀�. 丕夭 賳馗乇 鬲卅賵乇蹖貙 亘毓囟蹖 丕夭 賳乇賲鈥屫з佖藏ж辟囏� 賯丕丿乇賳丿 鬲丕 亘蹖鈥屬嗁囏й屫� 亘乇丕蹖 賲丕 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 賲丨丕爻亘賴 讴賳賳丿貙 賵賱蹖 胤丕賱亘 丿乇 讴鬲丕亘 賳卮丕賳 賲蹖鈥屫囏� 讴賴 亘丕 丿賵乇 卮丿賳 丕夭 夭賲丕賳 丨丕賱貙 丿賯鬲 倬蹖卮鈥屸€屫ㄛ屬嗃屸€屬囏� 亘賴 爻乇毓鬲 亘賴 氐賮乇 賲蹖賱 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗀�.
倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 亘乇 丕爻丕爻 鬲丕乇蹖禺
卮丕蹖丿 亘鬲賵丕賳蹖賲 丕夭 鬲丕乇蹖禺 丿乇爻鈥屬囏й屰� 亘诏蹖乇蹖賲貙 賵賱蹖 倬蹖卮鈥屸€屫ㄛ屬嗃� 乇賵蹖丿丕丿賴丕蹖 丌蹖賳丿賴 亘乇 丕爻丕爻 鬲噩乇亘蹖丕鬲 诏匕卮鬲賴 丿乇 亘爻蹖丕乇蹖 丕夭 賲賵丕乇丿 讴丕乇蹖 夭蹖丕賳鈥屫ㄘж� 丕爻鬲. 亘爻蹖丕乇蹖 丕夭 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й� 鬲丕乇蹖禺蹖 -賲孬賱丕 噩賳诏鈥屬囏�- 丕爻丕爻丕賸 賯丕亘賱 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 賳蹖爻鬲賳丿.
趩乇丕 賳馗丕賲 爻乇賲丕蹖賴鈥屫ж臂� 讴丕乇 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗀�
胤丕賱亘 蹖讴蹖 丕夭 賲賴賲鬲乇蹖賳 丕爻鬲丿賱丕賱鈥屬囏� 亘賴 賳賮毓 讴丕倬蹖鬲丕賱蹖爻賲 乇丕 丕蹖賳 亘丕乇 丕夭 賳诏丕賴 卮丕賳爻 賵 鬲氐丕丿賮貙 卮乇丨 賲蹖鈥屫囏�:
賳馗丕賲鈥屬囏й� 賲鬲賲乇讴夭(賲孬賱丕 爻賵爻蹖丕賱蹖爻賲 賵 賮丕卮蹖爻賲) 丕爻丕爻丕賸 賯丕丿乇 亘賴 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 亘賴鬲乇蹖賳 丕賳鬲禺丕亘鈥屬囏� 亘乇丕蹖 噩丕賲毓賴 賳蹖爻鬲賳丿 丨鬲蹖 丕诏乇 丿乇 丿爻鬲 亘賴鬲乇蹖賳 丕賮乇丕丿 亘丕卮賳丿. 丕蹖賳 賳馗丕賲 睾蹖乇賲鬲賲乇讴夭 丿乇 賯丕賱亘 讴丕倬蹖鬲丕賱蹖爻賲 賵 亘丕夭丕乇 丌夭丕丿 丕爻鬲 讴賴 亘賴 鬲讴 鬲讴 丕賮乇丕丿 丕噩丕夭賴鈥屰� 丌夭賲賵賳 賵 禺胤丕 賲蹖鈥屫囏� 鬲丕 亘賴蹖賳賴鈥屫臂屬� 乇丕賴鈥屬囏� 亘乇诏夭蹖丿賴 卮賵丿:
賵 賳爻蹖賲 胤丕賱亘 賲孬賱 賲賳 丕夭 毓賱丕賯賴鈥屬呝嗀з� 亘賴 賴丕蹖讴 丕爻鬲:
胤丕賱亘 丕卮丕乇賴 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗀� 讴賴 丿乇 賳馗丕賲 讴丕倬蹖鬲丕賱蹖爻鬲蹖 卮乇讴鬲鈥屬囏й� 賳丕讴丕乇丌賲丿 丕夭 乇賯丕亘鬲 禺丕乇噩 賲蹖鈥屫促堎嗀� 丕賲丕 丿乇 賳馗丕賲鈥屬囏й� 爻賵爻蹖丕賱蹖爻鬲蹖 丨賲丕蹖鬲鈥屬囏й� 賳丕丿乇爻鬲 丿賵賱鬲 亘丕毓孬 賲蹖鈥屫促堌� 卮乇讴鬲鈥屬囏й� 亘夭乇诏賽 賳丕讴丕乇丌賲丿 賴賲趩賳丕賳 亘乇倬丕 亘賲丕賳賳丿. 丿乇 賵丕賯毓 亘乇禺賱丕賮 鬲氐賵乇 乇丕蹖噩貙 丕蹖賳 賳馗丕賲 爻賵爻蹖丕賱蹖鬲蹖 丕爻鬲 讴賴 亘賴 卮乇讴鬲鈥屬囏й� 亘夭乇诏 亘丕噩 賲蹖鈥屫囏�.
亘毓囟蹖 丕夭 芦賲鬲禺氐氐丕賳賽禄 賲賵囟賵毓丕鬲 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃屸€屬嗀з矩佰屫必� 卮蹖丕丿賳丿!
丿乇 讴鬲丕亘 賯亘賱蹖 賴賲 诏賮鬲蹖賲貙 亘乇丕蹖 鬲賵囟蹖丨 賵 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 亘爻蹖丕乇蹖 丕夭 倬丿蹖丿賴鈥屬囏� 賲卮丕賴丿賴鈥屰� 蹖丕賮鬲賴鈥屬囏й� 鬲讴乇丕乇蹖 賵 亘賴 賳賮毓賽 賮乇囟蹖賴鈥屰� 賲丕 亘乇丕蹖 鬲丕蹖蹖丿 賮乇囟蹖賴鈥屰� 賲丕 讴丕賮蹖 賳蹖爻鬲貙 賴賲丕賳胤賵乇 讴賴 亘賵賯賱賲賵賳 爻丕丿賴鈥屬勝堌� 賳亘丕蹖丿 亘乇丕爻丕爻 賲卮丕賴丿丕鬲 乇賵夭賲乇賴鈥屫ж� 氐賱丨 賵 氐賮丕 丿乇 讴賳丕乇 丕賳爻丕賳鈥屬囏� 乇丕 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 賲蹖鈥屭┴必�.
丿乇 賵丕賯毓 賲蹖鈥屫堌з� 亘乇丕蹖 鬲賯乇蹖亘丕賸 賴乇 賮乇囟蹖賴鈥屫й� 丿丕丿賴鈥屬囏й屰屘� 丿乇 鬲丕蹖蹖丿 賮乇囟蹖賴 蹖丕賮鬲.
丕蹖賳噩丕爻鬲 讴賴 丿乇 賮賱爻賮賴鈥屰� 毓賱賲貙 丕亘胤丕賱鈥屬矩佰屫臂� 倬賵倬乇 亘賴 讴丕乇 賲蹖鈥屫③屫�. 丕孬亘丕鬲 賳丕丿乇爻鬲蹖賽 亘爻蹖丕乇蹖 丕夭 賮乇囟蹖賴鈥屬囏� 爻丕丿賴鈥屫� 丕夭 丕孬亘丕鬲 丿乇爻鬲蹖賽 丌賳鈥屬囏ж池�: 賮賯胤 丿蹖丿賳 蹖讴 賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴 亘乇丕蹖 賳丕丿乇爻鬲 丿丕賳爻鬲賳 诏夭丕乇賴鈥屰� 芦賴賲賴鈥屰� 賯賵賴丕 爻賮蹖丿賳丿禄 讴丕賮蹖爻鬲貙 丕賲丕 賴乇趩賯丿乇 賯賵蹖 爻賮蹖丿 亘亘蹖賳蹖賲 亘乇丕蹖 鬲兀蹖蹖丿 丿乇爻鬲蹖賽 诏夭丕乇賴鈥屰� 芦賴賲賴鈥屰� 賯賵賴丕 爻賮蹖丿賳丿禄 讴丕賮蹖 賳蹖爻鬲
丿賯鬲 讴賳蹖丿 讴賴 丨乇賮 胤丕賱亘 丕蹖賳 賳蹖爻鬲 讴賴 亘賴 賴蹖趩 賲鬲禺氐氐蹖 丕毓鬲賲丕丿 賳讴賳蹖丿貙 亘賱讴賴 丕賵 賲毓鬲賯丿 丕爻鬲 賲鬲禺氐氐蹖賳 丿乇 亘毓囟蹖 丕夭 賲賵囟賵毓丕鬲貙 亘蹖卮鬲乇 賲爻鬲毓丿 丕卮鬲亘丕賴 讴乇丿賳 賵 鬲亘丿蹖賱 卮丿賳 亘賴 卮蹖丕丿 丿丕乇賳丿!
賲孬丕賱鈥屬囏й屰� 丕夭 賲鬲禺氐氐丕賳蹖 讴賴 亘蹖卮鬲乇 賲蹖鈥屫堌з� 乇賵蹖 丨乇賮卮丕賳 丨爻丕亘 讴乇丿: 丿丕賲倬夭卮讴丕賳貙 賮囟丕賳賵乇丿丕賳貙 丕爻鬲丕丿丕賳 卮胤乇賳噩貙 賮蹖夭蹖讴丿丕賳鈥屬囏ж� 丨爻丕亘丿丕乇賴丕貙 噩乇丕丨鈥屬囏� 賵...
賲孬丕賱鈥屬囏й屰� 丕夭 賲鬲禺氐氐丕賳蹖 讴賴 亘丕 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й� 亘爻蹖丕乇 倬蹖趩蹖丿賴 賵 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃屸€屬嗀з矩佰屫� 爻乇 賵 讴丕乇 丿丕乇賳丿貙 亘賳丕亘乇丕蹖賳 倬鬲丕賳爻蹖賱 亘蹖卮鬲乇蹖 亘乇丕蹖 卮蹖丕丿 亘賵丿賳 丿丕乇賳丿:
爻蹖诏賳丕賱鈥屫囐嗀з� 亘丕夭丕乇 爻賴丕賲貙 乇賵丕賳卮賳丕爻丕賳 亘丕賱蹖賳蹖貙 賯丕囟蹖鈥屬囏й� 丿丕丿诏丕賴貙 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃屸€屭┵嗁嗀з� 丕賯鬲氐丕丿蹖貙 讴丕乇卮賳丕爻丕賳 毓賱賵賲 爻蹖丕爻蹖 賵 ...(賯胤毓丕賸 亘賴卮丕賳 亘乇賲蹖鈥屫堌必�!)
賳讴鬲賴鈥屰� 亘丕賲夭賴 丕蹖賳噩丕爻鬲 讴賴 亘毓囟蹖 丕夭 賲胤丕賱毓丕鬲 賳卮丕賳 賲蹖鈥屫囐嗀� 賲鬲禺氐氐丕賳 丕蹖賳 丕賲賵乇 丨鬲蹖 丕夭 丕賮乇丕丿 毓丕丿蹖 賳蹖夭 丿乇 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 丕賲讴丕賳 亘乇賵夭 禺胤丕蹖 亘蹖卮鬲乇蹖 丿丕乇賳丿貙 卮丕蹖丿 亘賴 丕蹖賳 禺丕胤乇 讴賴 賵噩賵丿 丿丕丿賴鈥屬囏й� 亘爻蹖丕乇 (賵 丕賱亘鬲賴 诏丕賴蹖 亘賴 丿乇丿 賳禺賵乇) 賵 鬲禺氐氐 賮乇丿 亘丕毓孬 亘乇賵夭 丕毓鬲賲丕丿 亘賴 賳賮爻 讴丕匕亘蹖 賲蹖鈥屫促堌� 讴賴 丕丨鬲賲丕賱 亘乇賵夭 禺胤丕 乇丕 亘丕賱丕 賲蹖鈥屫ㄘ必�.
丨丕賱丕 趩賴 讴丕乇 讴賳蹖賲責
爻賵丕賱蹖 讴賴 賲胤乇丨 賲蹖鈥屫促堌� 丕蹖賳噩丕爻鬲 讴賴 丿乇 亘乇丕亘乇 噩賴丕賳蹖 讴賴 鬲氐丕丿賮 賵 丕丨鬲賲丕賱丕鬲 賳賯卮 亘夭乇诏蹖 乇丕 丿乇 丌賳 丕蹖賮丕 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗁嗀� 賵 賲鬲禺氐氐鈥屬嗁呚з囏� 亘賴 賲丕 丿乇亘丕乇賴鈥屰� 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃屬� 丌蹖賳丿賴 丿乇賵睾 賲蹖鈥屭堐屬嗀� 趩賴 亘丕蹖丿 讴乇丿責
郾賭 賳蹖賲賴鈥屫蹿┴и� 亘丕卮蹖丿: 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃屸€屬囏з嗀з矩佰屫辟囏� 乇丕 亘卮賳丕爻蹖丿 賵 丿乇 亘乇禺賵乇丿 亘丕 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 讴賳賳丿诏丕賳賽 趩賳蹖賳 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й屰� 卮讴丕讴 亘丕卮蹖丿. 亘倬匕蹖乇蹖丿 讴賴 丕賳爻丕賳 亘賵丿賳 賴賲乇丕賴 丕爻鬲 亘丕 丿丕賳爻鬲賳 亘毓囟蹖 趩蹖夭賴丕 賵 賳丿丕賳爻鬲賳 趩蹖夭賴丕蹖蹖 亘爻蹖丕乇 亘蹖卮鬲乇蹖.
鄄賭 鬲氐丕丿賮蹖 亘賵丿賳 賵 倬蹖趩蹖丿诏蹖賽 噩賴丕賳 亘賴 丕蹖賳 賲毓賳蹖 賳蹖爻鬲 讴賴 丿爻鬲 乇賵蹖 丿爻鬲 亘诏匕丕乇蹖丿 賵 鬲賱丕卮 賳讴賳蹖丿. 亘賴 蹖丕丿 丿丕卮鬲賴 亘丕卮蹖丿: 卮丕賳爻 丿乇賽 禺丕賳賴鈥屰� 丌丿賲鈥屬囏й� 丌賲丕丿賴 乇丕 賲蹖鈥屫操嗀�! (luck favors the prepared)
鄢賭 丕蹖賳讴賴 卮賲丕 亘丿丕賳蹖丿 賳賲蹖鈥屫堌з� 亘爻蹖丕乇蹖 丕夭 趩蹖夭賴丕 乇丕 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 讴乇丿 亘賴 賲毓賳蹖 丕蹖賳 賳蹖爻鬲 讴賴 賳賲蹖鈥屫堌з嗃屫� 丕夭 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃屸€屬嗀з矩佰屫辟囏� 爻賵丿 亘亘乇蹖丿. 丿乇 賵丕賯毓 胤丕賱亘 丿乇 讴鬲丕亘鈥屬囏й屫� 丕爻鬲乇丕鬲跇蹖鈥屬囏й屰� 乇丕 賲胤乇丨 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗀� 讴賴 禺賵丿鬲丕賳 乇丕 丿乇 賲毓乇囟 亘蹖卮鬲乇蹖賳 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴賽 賲孬亘鬲 賯乇丕乇 丿賴蹖丿 賵 丿乇 毓蹖賳 丨丕賱 夭蹖丕賳 賳丕卮蹖 丕夭 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴賽 賲賳賮蹖 乇丕 亘賴 丨丿丕賯賱 亘乇爻丕賳蹖丿貙 (賲孬丕賱: 丿乇 亘丕夭丕乇賴丕蹖 賲丕賱蹖貙 亘丕夭丕乇 丌倬卮賳 亘丕 丕賴乇賲 丨丿丕讴孬乇蹖 蹖讴蹖 丕夭 丕蹖賳 诏夭蹖賳賴鈥屬囏ж池� 蹖丕 夭賳丿诏蹖 丿乇 卮賴乇賴丕蹖 亘夭乇诏 亘丕 丿賱蹖賱 丕賮夭丕蹖卮 亘乇禺賵乇丿 亘丕 倬蹖趩蹖丿诏蹖 卮丕賳爻 卮賲丕 乇丕 亘乇丕蹖 賲賵丕噩賴賴 亘丕 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴 賲孬亘鬲 賵 倬蹖卮乇賮鬲 丕賮夭丕蹖卮 賲蹖鈥屫囏�)
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丕蹖賳 乇蹖賵蹖賵 賴賲 蹖讴蹖 丕夭 胤賵賱丕賳蹖鈥屫臂屬� 乇蹖賵蹖賵賴丕 卮丿貙 賵賱蹖 亘爻蹖丕乇蹖 丕夭 倬蹖趩蹖丿诏蹖鈥屬囏� 賵 馗乇丕蹖賮 讴鬲丕亘貙 賳丕诏賮鬲賴 賲丕賳丿.
倬爻 鬲氐賲蹖賲 诏乇賮鬲賲 禺賵丕賳丿賳 噩賱丿 丿賵賲 丕夭 賲噩賲賵毓賴鈥屰� 芦丕蹖賳爻乇鬲賵禄 乇丕 夭蹖丕丿 亘賴 鬲兀禺蹖乇 賳蹖賳丿丕夭賲(诏乇趩賴 禺賵丕賳丿賳 丕蹖賳 噩賱丿 亘蹖卮 丕夭 丌賳趩賴 讴賴 亘丕蹖丿貙 胤賵賱 讴卮蹖丿)
亘丨孬 丿乇 賲賵乇丿 讴鬲丕亘 芦賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴禄 乇丕 亘丕 丿賵 丕亘乇丕夭 鬲兀爻賮 丌睾丕夭 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗁�:
鈥� 丕賵賱 丕蹖賳讴賴 亘賴 賳馗乇賲 禺賵丕賳丿賳 丌孬丕乇 胤丕賱亘 亘乇丕蹖 亘蹖卮鬲乇 丌丿賲鈥屬囏� 賲賮蹖丿 丕爻鬲. 丨乇賮 乇蹖賵蹖賵蹖 賯亘賱蹖 乇丕 鬲讴乇丕乇 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗁�: 賴賲賴鈥屰� 丨乇賮鈥屬囏й� 賳爻蹖賲 胤丕賱亘貙 氐丿丿乇氐丿 丨乇賮 丨爻丕亘 賳蹖爻鬲 賵 亘賴 亘乇禺蹖 亘丕蹖丿 亘丕 丿蹖丿賴鈥屰� 鬲乇丿蹖丿 賵 鬲賮讴乇 丕賳鬲賯丕丿蹖 賳诏乇蹖爻鬲貙 賵賱蹖 讴賱蹖鬲 丨乇賮鈥屬囏й屫� 亘爻蹖丕乇 噩丕賱亘 賵 丌賲賵夭賳丿賴 丕爻鬲 賵 賴賲賴 亘賴 禺氐賵氐 賲乇丿賲賽 賲丕 賳蹖丕夭 亘賴 趩賳蹖賳 丿蹖丿蹖 亘賴 噩賴丕賳 丿丕乇賳丿. 丨丕賱丕 讴噩丕蹖卮 噩丕蹖 鬲兀爻賮 丿丕乇丿責 丕蹖賳讴賴 賲賵囟賵毓 丌孬丕乇 胤丕賱亘 亘乇丕蹖 亘蹖卮鬲乇 賲乇丿賲 亘賴 丕賳丿丕夭賴鈥屰� 讴丕賮蹖 噩匕丕亘 賳蹖爻鬲 賵 賳賲蹖鈥屫堌з嗁� 亘丕 禺蹖丕賱 乇丕丨鬲 丌賳 乇丕 亘賴 賴賲賴 倬蹖卮賳賴丕丿 讴賳賲貙 蹖毓賳蹖 丕诏乇 賮賯胤 賴賲蹖賳 噩賱丿 乇丕 賴賲 丿乇 賳馗乇 亘诏蹖乇蹖賲貙 胤丕賱亘 鄣郯郯 氐賮丨賴 乇丕噩毓 亘賴 鬲氐丕丿賮貙 丕丨鬲賲丕賱丕鬲貙 毓丿賲 賯胤毓蹖鬲貙 賳诏丕賴 卮讴鈥屭必� 賵 噩賴賱賽 賲丕 丨乇賮 夭丿賴 丕爻鬲貙 賲賵囟賵毓丕鬲蹖 讴賴 亘蹖卮 丕夭 丌賳趩賴 賮讴乇 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗃屬� 賲賴賲 賴爻鬲賳丿. 丨鬲蹖 胤丕賱亘 亘丕 丌賵乇丿賳 賲孬丕賱鈥屬囏� 賵 丿丕爻鬲丕賳鈥屬囏� 賵 禺賵卮賲夭诏蹖鈥屬囏й屫� 讴賵卮蹖丿賴 讴鬲丕亘 乇丕 丕夭 丨丕賱鬲 丌讴丕丿賲蹖讴 蹖丕 讴爻丕賱鬲鈥屫ㄘж� 禺丕乇噩 讴賳丿貙 丕賲丕 禺賵丿賲丕賳蹖賲貙 趩賳丿 丿乇氐丿 丕夭 禺賵丕賳賳丿诏丕賳 趩賳蹖賳 賲賵囟賵毓丕鬲蹖 乇丕 噩丕賱亘 賲蹖鈥屫з嗁嗀�
丌孬丕乇 胤丕賱亘 賯乇丕乇 丕爻鬲 噩賴賱 賲丕 乇丕 亘賴 賲丕 蹖丕丿丌賵乇蹖 讴賳丿貙 賯乇丕乇 丕爻鬲 賳蹖乇賵蹖 卮讴鈥屭必й屰� 賵 鬲賵丕囟毓 賮讴乇蹖 乇丕 丿乇 賲丕 鬲賯賵蹖鬲 讴賳丿. 賯乇丕乇 丕爻鬲 亘賴 賲丕 亘蹖丕賲賵夭丿 讴賴 亘爻蹖丕乇蹖 丕夭 倬蹖趩蹖丿诏蹖鈥屬囏й� 噩賴丕賳 乇丕 賳賲蹖鈥屫з嗃屬呚� 亘賱讴賴 賲丕 乇丕 鬲亘丿蹖賱 讴賳丿 亘賴 芦丌賳讴爻 讴賴 賳丿丕賳丿 賵 亘丿丕賳丿 讴賴 賳丿丕賳丿禄 (讴賴 亘乇禺賱丕賮 卮毓乇卮貙 賲毓賯賵賱鈥屫臂屬� 诏夭蹖賳賴 丕爻鬲!)
胤丕賱亘 丿乇 丕蹖賳 乇丕賴 丕夭 丕賳賵丕毓 賲孬丕賱鈥屬囏� 賵 丿蹖丿诏丕賴鈥屬囏� 亘賴乇賴 賲蹖鈥屫ㄘ必屘� 鄣郯郯 氐賮丨賴 氐丨亘鬲 丿乇亘丕乇賴鈥屰� 趩賳蹖賳 賲賵囟賵毓蹖 讴丕乇 爻丕丿賴鈥屫й� 賳蹖爻鬲貙 賵賱蹖 賳賲蹖鈥屫堌з嗁� 胤丕賱亘 乇丕 亘賴 夭蹖丕丿賴鈥屭堐屰� 賲鬲賴賲 讴賳賲貙 亘丨孬 亘爻蹖丕乇 倬蹖趩蹖丿賴 丕爻鬲 賵 胤丕賱亘 賲蹖鈥屭┵堌簇� 丕蹖賳 倬蹖趩蹖丿诏蹖鈥屬囏й� 賲禺鬲賱賮 乇丕 亘乇丕蹖 禺賵丕賳賳丿賴 鬲卮乇蹖丨 讴賳丿. 丕賲丕 讴鬲丕亘 賲賲讴賳 丕爻鬲 亘乇丕蹖 亘爻蹖丕乇蹖 丕夭 禺賵丕賳賳丿诏丕賳 禺爻鬲賴鈥屭┵嗁嗀� 亘丕卮丿.
鈥� 鬲兀爻賮 丿賵賲 賴賲 丕蹖賳讴賴 芦賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴禄 丕丨鬲賲丕賱丕賸 丿乇 丨丕賱 丨丕囟乇 賲毓乇賵賮鈥屫臂屬� 賵 倬乇賮乇賵卮鈥屫臂屬� 讴鬲丕亘 賳爻蹖賲 胤丕賱亘 丿乇 丿賳蹖丕爻鬲貙 丕賲丕 賲鬲兀爻賮丕賳賴 鬲乇噩賲賴鈥屰� 卮丕蹖爻鬲賴鈥屫й� 丿乇 夭亘丕賳 賮丕乇爻蹖 賳丿丕乇丿. 倬爻 丕诏乇 亘賴 夭亘丕賳 丕賳诏賱蹖爻蹖 賲爻賱胤 賴爻鬲蹖丿貙 丕丨鬲賲丕賱丕賸 賳爻禺賴鈥屰� 丕氐賱蹖 讴鬲丕亘 乇丕 賯丕亘賱 賮賴賲鈥屫� 禺賵丕賴蹖丿 蹖丕賮鬲.(鬲乇噩賲賴鈥屰� 賲賳 丕夭 丕氐胤賱丕丨丕鬲 賵 毓亘丕乇鬲鈥屬囏й� 丕蹖賳 讴鬲丕亘貙 讴丕賲賱丕賸 賲賳鈥屫必①堌必� 賵 亘乇 丕爻丕爻 賮賴賲 禺賵丿賲 丕爻鬲 丕爻鬲. 卮丕蹖丿 鬲乇噩賲賴鈥屬囏й� 亘丕夭丕乇 丕夭 賲丕賱 賲賳 亘賴鬲乇 亘丕卮丿)
倬蹖卮 丕夭 賲乇賵乇 讴鬲丕亘 丕蹖賳 乇丕 賴賲 亘诏賵蹖賲 讴賴 亘賴 賳馗乇賲 亘丨孬鈥屬囏й� 芦賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴禄 讴丕賲賱丕賸 丿乇 丿賳亘丕賱賴鈥屰� 芦賮乇蹖亘鈥屫堌必団€屰� 鬲氐丕丿賮禄 賳賵卮鬲賴 卮丿賴 賵 诏丕賴蹖 亘丕 丌賳 賴賲鈥屬举堌簇з嗃� 丿丕乇丿貙 倬爻 丕诏乇 賲蹖鈥屫堌з囒屫� 賮賴賲 亘賴鬲乇蹖 丕夭 丕蹖賳 讴鬲丕亘 丿丕卮鬲賴 亘丕卮蹖丿貙 亘賴鬲乇 丕爻鬲 丕夭 賮乇蹖亘 禺賵乇丿賴鈥屰� 鬲氐丕丿賮 卮乇賵毓 讴賳蹖丿.
賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴 趩蹖爻鬲責
噩賲賱賴鈥屰� 芦賴賲賴鈥屰� 賯賵賴丕 爻賮蹖丿 賴爻鬲賳丿禄 乇丕 丿乇 賳馗乇 亘诏蹖乇蹖丿.
賲丕 爻丕賱鈥屬囏� 亘賴 丿乇爻鬲蹖 丕蹖賳 噩賲賱賴 亘丕賵乇 丿丕卮鬲賴鈥屫й屬呚� 夭蹖乇丕 爻丕賱鈥屬囏� 賲卮丕賴丿丕鬲蹖 鬲讴乇丕乇 卮賵賳丿賴 丿丕卮鬲賴鈥屫й屬�: 賲卮丕賴丿賴鈥屰� 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻賮蹖丿.
賵 賲卮丕賴丿賴 賵 丌诏丕賴蹖 禺丕氐蹖 丕夭 賯賵賴丕蹖 睾蹖乇 爻賮蹖丿 賳丿丕卮鬲賴鈥屫й屬呚� 賲丕 爻丕賱鈥屬囏� 丿乇 賲賵乇丿 賯賵賴丕蹖 睾蹖乇 爻賮蹖丿 丿乇 噩賴賱 亘賴 爻乇 賲蹖鈥屫ㄘ必屬呚� 趩賵賳 賲卮丕賴丿丕鬲 鬲讴乇丕乇 卮賵賳丿賴 亘賴 賲丕 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻賮蹖丿 乇丕 賳卮丕賳 賲蹖鈥屫ж�.
丕賲丕 噩賲賱賴鈥屰� 芦賴賲賴鈥屰� 賯賵賴丕 爻賮蹖丿 賴爻鬲賳丿禄 賳丕诏賴丕賳 亘賴 乇丕丨鬲蹖 鬲亘丿蹖賱 亘賴 蹖讴 毓亘丕乇鬲 賳丕丿乇爻鬲 卮丿: 夭賲丕賳蹖 讴賴 賯丕乇賴鈥屰� 丕爻鬲乇丕賱蹖丕 讴卮賮 卮丿 賵 亘乇丕蹖 丕賵賱蹖賳 亘丕乇 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴 乇丕 丿蹖丿蹖賲. 丨鬲蹖 賲卮丕賴丿賴鈥屰� 蹖讴 賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴 賴賲 賲蹖鈥屫堌з嗀池� 丕夭 賳馗乇 賲賳胤賯蹖 噩賲賱賴鈥屰� 芦賴賲賴鈥屰� 賯賵賴丕 爻賮蹖丿 賴爻鬲賳丿禄 乇丕 鬲亘丿蹖賱 讴賳丿 亘賴 蹖讴 噩賲賱賴鈥屰� 賳丕丿乇爻鬲.
丕蹖賳 賲孬丕賱 乇丕 亘賴 噩賴丕賳 賵丕賯毓蹖 賲蹖鈥屫①堌臂屬� 賵 倬丿蹖丿賴鈥屰� 賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴 乇丕 趩賳蹖賳 鬲毓乇蹖賮 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗃屬�:
郾賭 賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴 倬丿蹖丿賴鈥屫й� 丕爻鬲 禺丕乇噩 丕夭 丕夭 賲卮丕賴丿丕鬲 賵 鬲噩乇亘蹖丕鬲 賲丕 鬲丕 夭賲丕賳 賵賯賵毓 丌賳. 亘賴 毓亘丕乇鬲蹖 禺丕乇噩 丕夭 趩丕乇趩賵亘 賵 丕爻鬲孬賳丕蹖蹖 賵 賲鬲賮丕賵鬲 亘賴 賳馗乇 賲蹖鈥屫必池�.
鄄賭 賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴 丕孬乇 亘爻蹖丕乇 亘夭乇诏蹖 丿丕乇丿. 丿乇 賲孬丕賱賲丕賳 丿蹖丿蹖賲 讴賴 賮賯胤 賲卮丕賴丿賴鈥屰� 蹖讴 賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴 丿乇 蹖讴 賱丨馗賴 鬲賵丕賳爻鬲 爻丕賱鈥屬囏� 鬲噩乇亘賴鈥屰� 丕賳爻丕賳 丿乇 毓亘丕乇鬲 芦賴賲賴鈥屰� 賯賵賴丕 爻賮蹖丿 賴爻鬲賳丿禄 乇丕 鬲亘丿蹖賱 亘賴 蹖讴 诏夭丕乇賴鈥屰� 賳丕丿乇爻鬲 讴賳丿.
鄢賭 亘毓丿 丕夭 賵賯賵毓 倬丿蹖丿賴鈥屰� 賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴 丕賳爻丕賳 丿爻鬲 亘賴 鬲賵噩蹖賴 趩乇丕蹖蹖賽 賵賯賵毓 丌賳 賲蹖鈥屫操嗀� 丕賳诏丕乇 丕夭 丕賵賱 賯丕亘賱 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 亘賵丿賴 賵 賵賯賵毓 丌賳 毓噩蹖亘 賳亘賵丿賴 丕爻鬲! 趩賳丕賳趩賴 丨丕賱丕 賲卮丕賴丿賴鈥屰� 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴 亘乇丕蹖 倬乇賳丿賴鈥屫促嗀ж池з� 讴丕賲賱丕賸 毓丕丿蹖 卮丿賴 賵 賵噩賵丿卮丕賳 亘丿蹖賴蹖 亘賴 賳馗乇 賲蹖鈥屫必池�.
卮丕蹖丿 亘丕 禺賵丿鬲丕賳 賮讴乇 讴賳蹖丿 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й� 賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴 丿乇 噩賴丕賳 丕爻鬲孬賳丕 賵 讴賲蹖丕亘鈥屫з嗀� 賵 丕賴賲蹖鬲 趩賳丿丕賳蹖 賳丿丕乇賳丿貙 賵賱蹖 丿乇 賵丕賯毓 鬲賯乇蹖亘丕賸 賴賲賴鈥屰� 乇賵蹖丿丕丿賴丕蹖 賲賴賲 丿賳蹖丕 賳賵毓蹖 賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴鈥屫з嗀�:
賲賴賲鈥屫臂屬� 丕蹖丿賴鈥屬囏ж� 讴卮賮蹖丕鬲貙 丕禺鬲乇丕毓丕鬲貙 馗賴賵乇 丕丿蹖丕賳貙 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й� 鬲丕乇蹖禺蹖貙 馗賴賵乇 賵 爻賯賵胤 丨讴賵賲鬲鈥屬囏ж� 丕鬲賮丕賯丕鬲 賲賴賲蹖 讴賴 丿乇 夭賳丿诏蹖賽 卮禺氐蹖 賲丕 賲蹖鈥屫з佖嗀� 賵 丨鬲蹖 禺賵丿賽 卮賲丕貙 賴賲賴 賲孬丕賱鈥屬囏й屰� 丕夭 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴 賴爻鬲賳丿. 丌賳趩賴 夭賳丿诏蹖 賲丕 乇丕 賲蹖鈥屫池ж藏� 賲丕 锟斤拷乇 賵丕賯毓 賳鬲蹖噩賴鈥屰� 丕賳亘丕卮鬲賴 卮丿賳 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴 丕爻鬲.
丿乇 噩賱丿 賯亘賱 丿蹖丿蹖賲 讴賴 噩賴丕賳 倬蹖賵爻鬲賴 丿乇 丨丕賱 倬蹖趩蹖丿賴鈥屫� 卮丿賳 丕爻鬲 賵 丕蹖賳 倬蹖趩蹖丿诏蹖 倬爻 丕夭 丕賳賯賱丕亘 氐賳毓鬲蹖 爻乇毓鬲 亘蹖卮鬲乇蹖 賴賲 诏乇賮鬲賴 賵 賲丕 丕賳爻丕賳鈥屬囏� 亘乇丕蹖 亘乇禺賵乇丿 亘丕 丕蹖賳 倬蹖趩蹖丿诏蹖 胤乇丕丨蹖 賳卮丿賴鈥屫й屬�.賲丕 毓丕丿鬲 丿丕乇蹖賲 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴 乇丕 賳丕丿蹖丿賴 亘诏蹖乇蹖賲貙 丕賳诏丕乇 倬丿蹖丿賴鈥屫й� 毓丕丿蹖 賵 乇賵夭賲乇賴鈥屫з嗀�. 亘丕 倬蹖趩蹖丿賴鈥屫� 卮丿賳 噩賴丕賳貙 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴 亘蹖卮鬲乇蹖 賴賲 馗丕賴乇 賲蹖鈥屫促堎嗀�.
亘賵賯賱賲賵賳賽 爻丕丿賴鈥屬勝堌� 噩卮賳 卮讴乇诏夭丕乇蹖!
亘賵賯賱賲賵賳蹖 乇丕 鬲氐賵乇 讴賳蹖丿 讴賴 丕夭 乇賵夭 丕賵賱 鬲賵賱丿 亘乇丕蹖 丌賳 讴賴 禺賵乇丕讴 噩卮賳 卮讴乇诏夭丕乇蹖 卮賵丿貙 丿乇 蹖讴 賲夭乇毓賴 倬乇賵乇卮 丿丕丿賴 賲蹖鈥屫促堌�.
賲卮丕賴丿丕鬲 亘賵賯賱賲賵賳 丕夭 丕亘鬲丿丕 丕蹖賳 亘賵丿賴: 賴乇乇賵夭 丕賳爻丕賳鈥屬囏� 亘賴 丕賵 丌亘 賵 睾匕丕 賲蹖鈥屫囐嗀� 賵 丕夭 丕賵 賳诏賴丿丕乇蹖 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗁嗀�.
丕賵 賴乇乇賵夭 丕賳爻丕賳鈥屬囏й� 賲賴乇亘丕賳 乇丕 亘丕 乇賮鬲丕乇蹖 鬲讴乇丕乇卮賵賳丿賴 賲蹖鈥屫ㄛ屬嗀� 賵 丕夭 賲卮丕賴丿丕鬲 乇賵夭丕賳賴鈥屫ж� 賳鬲蹖噩賴鈥屭屫臂� 賵 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗀�:
丕賳爻丕賳鈥屬囏� 賴賲賵丕乇賴 賲乇丕賯亘 賵 丨丕賲蹖 賲賳 賴爻鬲賳丿!
賳鬲蹖噩賴鈥屭屫臂� 亘賵賯賱賲賵賳 爻丕丿賴鈥屸€屬勝堌� 賯氐賴鈥屰� 賲丕 鬲丕 乇賵夭 毓蹖丿 卮讴乇诏夭丕乇蹖 丿乇爻鬲 丕爻鬲貙 蹖毓賳蹖 氐丿賴丕 乇賵夭 賲卮丕賴丿賴鈥屰� 鬲讴乇丕乇 卮賵賳丿賴.
丕賲丕 丿乇 乇賵夭 毓蹖丿 卮讴乇诏夭丕乇蹖 賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴蹖 丕夭 乇丕賴 賲蹖鈥屫必池� 讴賴 賴賲賴鈥屰� 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃屸€屬囏й� 诏匕卮鬲賴 乇丕 亘丕胤賱 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗀�: 讴卮鬲賴鈥屫簇嗀� 亘賴 賵爻蹖賱賴鈥屰� 趩丕賯賵 賵 禺賵乇丿賴 卮丿賳卮 鬲賵爻胤 賴賲丕賳 丕賳爻丕賳鈥屬囏й� 賲賴乇亘丕賳!
丕诏乇 亘賵賯賱賲賵賳 爻丕丿賴鈥屬勝堌� 賲丕 丿爻鬲 亘賴 賲丨丕爻亘賴鈥屰� 丕丨鬲賲丕賱 賵賯賵毓 丕蹖賳 賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴 亘丕 鬲賵噩賴 亘賴 丿丕丿賴鈥屬囏й� 倬蹖卮蹖賳 亘夭賳丿(讴賴 賳亘丕蹖丿 亘夭賳丿!)貙 丕丨鬲賲丕賱 丌賳 乇丕 賳夭丿蹖讴 亘賴 氐賮乇 賲丨丕爻亘賴 禺賵丕賴丿 讴乇丿貙 丕賲丕 丕夭 賳诏丕賴 禺賵乇賳丿诏丕賳賽 丕賵 丕蹖賳 丕丨鬲賲丕賱 氐丿丿乇氐丿 亘賵丿!
賲丕 丕賳爻丕賳鈥屬囏� 賴賲 丕夭 賳馗乇 爻丕丿賴鈥屬勝堌� 丿爻鬲 讴賲蹖 丕夭 亘賵賯賱賲賵賳賽 賯氐賴 賳丿丕乇蹖賲 賵 亘乇丕蹖 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й屰� 讴賴 丿乇 匕丕鬲 禺賵丿 賯丕亘賱 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 賳蹖爻鬲賳丿貙 亘丕 賲卮丕賴丿賴鈥屰� 丿丕丿賴鈥屬囏й� 鬲讴乇丕乇 卮賵賳丿賴 丿爻鬲 亘賴 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃屸€屬囏й� 賲蹖鈥屫操嗃屬� 讴賴 亘丕 乇爻蹖丿賳 賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴貙 賳賯卮 亘乇 丌亘 賲蹖鈥屫促堎嗀� 賵 丿乇 亘爻蹖丕乇蹖 丕夭 賲賵丕乇丿 毓丿賲鈥屬傌坟观屫€屬囏й屰� 乇丕 丕賳丿丕夭賴 賲蹖鈥屭屫臂屬� 讴賴 丕爻丕爻丕賸 賯丕亘賱 丕賳丿丕夭賴鈥屭屫臂� 賳蹖爻鬲賳丿. 賲丕 亘賴 噩丕蹖 蹖丕丿诏乇賮鬲賳賽 賯丕賳賵賳賽 毓丿賲賽 鬲賵丕賳丕蹖蹖賽 賲丕 丿乇 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃屬� 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴貙 亘乇 丿丕丿賴鈥屬囏� 鬲讴蹖賴 賲蹖鈥屫操嗃屬� 鬲丕 亘丕 丌賳鈥屬囏� 睾蹖乇賯丕亘賱 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃屸€屬囏� 乇丕 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 讴賳蹖賲.
趩乇丕 丿乇 亘乇丕亘乇 鬲氐丕丿賮丕鬲 賳丕亘蹖賳丕蹖蹖賲責
丿乇 噩賱丿 賯亘賱蹖 賴賲 丕蹖賳 鬲卅賵乇蹖 賲胤乇丨 卮丿 讴賴 匕賴賳 賲丕 丕夭 賳馗乇 夭蹖爻鬲鈥屫促嗀ж� 賵 鬲讴丕賲賱蹖 鬲賵丕賳丕蹖蹖 賴賲倬丕 卮丿賳 亘丕 倬蹖趩蹖丿诏蹖 乇賵夭丕賮夭賵賳 噩賴丕賳 乇丕 賳丿丕乇丿.
趩賳丿 賲賵囟賵毓 讴賴 亘丕毓孬 賳丕鬲賵丕賳蹖 匕賴賳 賲丕 丿乇 丿乇讴 倬蹖趩蹖丿诏蹖鈥屬囏� 賲蹖鈥屫促堎嗀� 乇丕 賲孬丕賱 賲蹖鈥屫操嗁�:
郾賭 鬲賵賴賲 丿丕賳丕蹖蹖: 賲乇丿賲 賮讴乇 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗁嗀� 賲蹖鈥屫з嗁嗀� 丿乇 噩賴丕賳 趩賴 乇賵蹖 賲蹖鈥屫囏� 噩賴丕賳蹖 讴賴 倬蹖趩蹖丿賴鈥屫� 賵 鬲氐丕丿賮蹖鈥屫� 丕夭 趩蹖夭蹖 丕爻鬲 讴賴 賮讴乇 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗃屬呚� 丿乇 丨丕賱蹖 讴賴 賲丕 丕賳爻丕賳鈥屬囏� 丕爻鬲丕丿 禺賵丿賮乇蹖亘蹖 賴爻鬲蹖賲!
鄄賭 賳诏丕賴 賲睾卮賵卮 诏匕卮鬲賴鈥屬嗂�: 亘毓丿 丕夭 賵賯賵毓 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴貙 賲乇丿賲 亘賴 诏匕卮鬲賴 賳诏丕賴 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗁嗀� 賵 賵賯賵毓 丌賳 乇丕 胤賵乇蹖 鬲賵噩蹖賴 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗁嗀� 丕賳诏丕乇 丕夭 賯亘賱 賯丕亘賱 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 賵 亘丿蹖賴蹖 亘賵丿賴 丕爻鬲. 丿乇 丨丕賱蹖 讴賴 倬蹖卮 丕夭 丌賳 讴爻蹖 丕夭 丌賳 禺亘乇 賳丿丕卮鬲賴 丕爻鬲.
鄢賭 丕乇夭卮 丿丕丿賳 亘蹖卮 丕夭 丨丿 亘賴 丿丕丿賴鈥屬囏� 賵 丕胤賱丕毓丕鬲蹖 讴賴 丿丕乇蹖賲貙 丕蹖賳 賳賯胤賴 囟毓賮 亘賴 禺氐賵氐 丿乇 賲賵乇丿 讴爻丕賳蹖 讴賴 禺賵丿 乇丕 賲鬲禺氐氐 丕賲賵乇 睾蹖乇賯丕亘賱 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 賲蹖鈥屫з嗁嗀� 賲卮丕賴丿賴 賲蹖鈥屫促堌�.
鄞賭 賲睾丕賱胤賴鈥屰� 乇賵丕蹖鬲 (narrative fallacy): 賲丕 毓丕丿鬲 丿丕乇蹖賲 丕夭 賲噩賲賵毓賴鈥屰� 丿丕丿賴鈥屬囏� 鬲賮爻蹖乇 賵 乇賵丕蹖鬲 亘蹖乇賵賳 亘讴卮蹖賲貙 丿乇 丨丕賱蹖 讴賴 亘毓囟蹖 丕夭 丿丕丿賴鈥屬囏� 鬲賮爻蹖乇 賵 賳鬲蹖噩賴鈥屰� 禺丕氐蹖 賳丿丕乇賳丿貙 蹖讴 賲孬丕賱賽 賲賴賲貙 丕蹖賳 丕爻鬲 讴賴 丿賵 倬丿蹖丿賴 亘丕 賴賲 賴賲亘爻鬲诏蹖 (correlation) 丿丕乇賳丿 賵 賲丕 丌賳 乇丕 亘賴 丕卮鬲亘丕賴 毓賱蹖鬲听 (causation) 賲丨爻賵亘 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗃屬�. 亘爻蹖丕乇蹖 丕夭 丿丕丿賴鈥屬囏� 丕爻丕爻丕賸 鬲氐丕丿賮蹖 丿乇 讴賳丕乇 賴賲 賯乇丕乇 诏乇賮鬲賴鈥屫з嗀� 賵 丨鬲蹖 賴賲鈥屫ㄘ池� 丿乇 賳馗乇 诏乇賮鬲賳卮丕賳 賳蹖夭 讴丕乇蹖 賳丕丿乇爻鬲 丕爻鬲. 賲丕 丿賵爻鬲 丿丕乇蹖賲 倬蹖趩蹖丿诏蹖鈥屬囏й� 噩賴丕賳 乇丕 丿乇 匕賴賳賲丕賳 鬲亘丿蹖賱 亘賴 蹖讴 乇賵丕蹖鬲 爻丕丿賴 讴賳蹖賲貙 丿乇 丨丕賱蹖 讴賴 亘爻蹖丕乇蹖 丕夭 倬蹖趩蹖丿诏蹖鈥屬囏� 賯丕亘賱 爻丕丿賴 卮丿賳 賳蹖爻鬲賳丿.
鄣賭 賲睾丕賱胤賴鈥屰� 亘丕夭蹖 (ludic fallacy): 賲丕 亘乇丕蹖 爻丕丿賴鈥屫池ж槽� 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й� 睾蹖乇賯丕亘賱 倬蹖鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃屫� 丕夭 鬲卅賵乇蹖鈥屬囏й� 亘丕夭蹖賽 爻丕丿賴 賵 蹖丕 賯賵丕賳蹖賳 丕丨鬲賲丕賱丕鬲 丿乇 賲賯蹖丕爻 賲丨丿賵丿 丕爻鬲賮丕丿賴 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗃屬� 賵 賳鬲丕蹖噩賲丕賳 乇丕 亘賴 讴賱 倬丿蹖丿賴 鬲毓賲蹖賲 賲蹖鈥屫囒屬�. 丿乇 丨丕賱蹖 讴賴 亘爻蹖丕乇蹖 丕夭 賲鬲睾蹖乇賴丕 賵 賲禺丿賵卮诏乇賴丕 亘乇丕蹖 賲丕 賳丕卮賳丕禺鬲賴鈥屫з嗀�. 賲丕 丨鬲蹖 丿賯蹖賯丕賸 賳賲蹖丿丕賳蹖賲 趩賴 賲鬲睾蹖乇賴丕蹖蹖 乇丕 丿乇 賲賵乇丿 賴乇 倬丿蹖丿賴 賳賲蹖鈥屫з嗃屬�(the unknown unknown)
賲蹖丕賳鈥屭必� 賵 丕賮乇丕胤鈥屭必�
胤丕賱亘 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й� 賲禺鬲賱賮 乇丕 亘賴 丿賵 丿爻鬲賴鈥屰� 賲蹖丕賳鈥屭必� (mediocristan) 賵 丕賮乇丕胤鈥屭必�(extremistan) 鬲賯爻蹖賲 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗀�.
倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й� 賲蹖丕賳鈥屭必� 丕夭 鬲賵夭蹖毓 賲賳馗賲蹖(賲孬賱丕 鬲賵夭蹖毓 賳賲賵丿丕乇 賲毓乇賵賮 夭賳诏賵賱賴鈥屫й�) 倬蹖乇賵蹖 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗁嗀� 鬲丕 丨丿蹖 賯丕亘賱 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 賵 鬲毓賲蹖賲 賴爻鬲賳丿貙 賵 亘蹖卮鬲乇蹖賳 賮乇丕賵丕賳蹖 乇丕 丿乇 芦賲蹖丕賳诏蹖賳禄 丿丕乇賳丿.
賲孬賱丕 鬲賵夭蹖毓 賯丿貙 蹖讴蹖 丕夭 丕蹖賳 丕蹖賳 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й� 賲蹖丕賳鈥屭必ж池�. 賲丕 丿乇 賴乇 噩丕賲毓賴 賲蹖鈥屫堌з嗃屬� 亘丕 丕賳丿丕夭賴鈥屭屫臂� 賳賲賵賳賴鈥屬囏й� 讴丕賮蹖 亘丕 鬲賯乇蹖亘 禺賵亘蹖 賳賲賵丿丕乇 鬲賵夭蹖毓 賯丿 丕賮乇丕丿 噩丕賲毓賴 乇丕 乇爻賲 讴賳蹖賲貙 亘蹖卮鬲乇 丕賮乇丕丿 賯丿蹖 賳夭丿蹖讴 亘賴 賲蹖丕賳诏蹖賳 丿丕乇賳丿貙 賵 賴乇趩賴 丕夭 賲蹖丕賳诏蹖賳 丿賵乇 卮賵蹖賲貙 鬲毓丿丕丿 丕賮乇丕丿 讴丕賴卮 賲蹖鈥屰屫жㄘ�. 賲丕 丕賳鬲馗丕乇 賵賯賵毓 賯賵鈥屬囏й� 爻蹖丕賴 乇丕 丿乇 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й� 賲蹖丕賳鈥屭必� 賳丿丕乇蹖賲. 亘乇禺蹖 丿蹖诏乇 丕夭 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й� 賲蹖丕賳鈥屭必�: 鬲賵夭蹖毓 賵夭賳貙 賲氐乇賮 讴丕賱乇蹖貙 丿乇丌賲丿 乇賵夭丕賳賴鈥屰� 蹖讴 賳丕賳賵丕 蹖丕 蹖讴 丿賳丿丕賳倬夭卮讴貙 鬲毓丿丕丿 鬲氐丕丿賮丕鬲 乇丕賳賳丿诏蹖貙 賳乇禺 賲乇诏 賵 賲蹖乇貙 囟乇蹖亘 賴賵卮蹖 賵 ...
丿乇 賲賯丕亘賱 丿乇 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й� 丕賮乇丕胤鈥屭必� 賲丕 賯丕丿乇 亘賴 乇爻賲 賳賲賵丿丕乇 丿乇爻鬲蹖 賳蹖爻鬲蹖賲貙 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴賽 鬲氐丕丿賮蹖 丕夭 乇丕賴 賲蹖鈥屫必迟嗀� 賵 鬲賵夭蹖毓 賲丕 乇丕 趩賳丕賳 鬲睾蹖蹖乇 賲蹖鈥屫囐嗀� 讴賴 丌賳 乇丕 睾蹖乇 賯丕亘賱 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗁嗀�. 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й� 丕賮乇丕胤鈥屭必� 亘賴 卮丿鬲 亘丕毓孬 賳丕亘乇丕亘乇蹖 賲蹖鈥屫促堎嗀�. 讴爻丕賳蹖 讴賴 丿乇 賲毓乇囟 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴 賲孬亘鬲 賯乇丕乇 诏蹖乇賳丿貙 倬丕丿丕卮 亘爻蹖丕乇 夭蹖丕丿蹖 賲蹖鈥屭屫辟嗀� 賵 讴爻丕賳蹖 讴賴 丿乇 賲毓乇囟 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴 賲賳賮蹖 賯乇丕乇 賲蹖鈥屭屫辟嗀� 亘賴 卮丿鬲 夭蹖丕賳 賲蹖鈥屫ㄛ屬嗁嗀�. 氐丨亘鬲 丕夭 賲蹖丕賳诏蹖賳 賵 賲蹖丕賳賴 賵 蹖丕賮鬲賳 鬲賵夭蹖毓 丕爻丕爻丕賸 讴丕乇蹖 丕卮鬲亘丕賴 丕爻鬲.賲孬丕賱鈥屬囏й屰� 丕夭 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й� 丕賮乇丕胤鈥屭必�:
孬乇賵鬲貙 賮乇賵卮 讴鬲丕亘 亘賴 丕夭丕蹖 賳賵蹖爻賳丿賴貙 賲蹖夭丕賳 卮賴乇鬲 爻賱亘乇蹖鬲蹖鈥屬囏ж� 噩賲毓蹖鬲 卮賴乇賴丕貙 賲蹖夭丕賳 丕爻鬲賮丕丿賴 丕夭 讴賱賲丕鬲 丿乇 賴乇 夭亘丕賳貙 鬲毓丿丕丿 讴爻丕賳蹖 讴賴 亘賴 賴乇 夭亘丕賳 氐丨亘鬲 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗁嗀� 賲蹖夭丕賳 禺爻丕乇丕鬲 夭賱夭賱賴鈥屬囏ж� 鬲毓丿丕丿 讴卮鬲賴鈥屬囏й� 噩賳诏蹖貙 亘丕夭丕乇鈥屬囏й� 賲丕賱蹖貙 賯蹖賲鬲 讴丕賲賵丿蹖鬲蹖鈥屸€屬囏ж� 賳乇禺 鬲賵乇賲貙 丿丕丿賴鈥屬囏й� 丕賯鬲氐丕丿蹖 賵...
丿乇 丿賳蹖丕蹖 賲丿乇賳貙 賴乇乇賵夭 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й� 丕賮乇丕胤鈥屭必� 亘蹖卮鬲乇 賲蹖鈥屫促堎嗀� 賵 丿賳蹖丕 倬蹖趩蹖丿賴鈥屫� 賲蹖鈥屫促堌�. 丕賲丕 匕賴賳 丕賳爻丕賳 亘賴 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й� 賲蹖丕賳鈥屭必� 毓丕丿鬲 丿丕乇丿貙 卮丕蹖丿 亘賴 丕蹖賳 禺丕胤乇 讴賴 賲丕 毓賱丕賯賴鈥屫й� 亘賴 丿蹖丿賳 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴 賳丿丕乇蹖賲.蹖讴 賳讴鬲賴鈥屰� 賲賴賲 丿蹖诏乇 丕蹖賳讴賴 丿乇 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й� 丕賮乇丕胤鈥屭必� 賳賲蹖鈥屫堌з� 亘丕 賳诏丕賴 亘乇丕亘乇蹖鈥屫堌з囏� 毓丿丕賱鬲蹖 鬲毓乇蹖賮 讴乇丿.
賳賲賵丿丕乇 噩匕丕亘 賵 賱毓賳鬲蹖賽 夭賳诏賵賱賴鈥屫й�!
丕丨鬲賲丕賱丕賸 亘丕 鬲賵夭蹖毓 賳乇賲丕賱 讴賴 亘丕 賳賲賵丿丕乇 賲毓乇賵賮 夭賳诏賵賱賴鈥屫й� 賳賲丕蹖卮 丿丕丿賴 賲蹖鈥屫促堌� 丌卮賳丕 亘丕卮蹖丿(亘賴 倬丕爻 鬲賱丕卮鈥屬囏й� 丌賯丕蹖 诏丕賵爻貙 鬲賵夭蹖毓 诏丕賵爻蹖 賴賲 賳丕賲蹖丿賴 賲蹖鈥屫促堌�)
丕爻鬲賮丕丿賴 丕夭 賲丨丕爻亘丕鬲 鬲賵夭蹖毓 賳乇賲丕賱 倬蹖卮乇賮鬲 亘夭乇诏蹖 丿乇 丌賲丕乇 賵 乇蹖丕囟蹖丕鬲 亘賵丿. 亘賴 讴賲讴 丕蹖賳 鬲賵夭蹖毓 賵 丕亘夭丕乇賴丕蹖卮(賲孬賱丕 丕賳丨乇丕賮 賲毓蹖丕乇) 鬲賵丕賳爻鬲蹖賲 亘爻蹖丕乇蹖 丕夭 倬丿蹖丿賴鈥屬囏� 乇丕 亘賴鬲乇 亘乇乇爻蹖 讴賳蹖賲. 賲卮讴賱 丕夭 噩丕蹖蹖 卮乇賵毓 卮丿 讴賴 亘蹖卮 丕夭 丨丿 丕夭 丕蹖賳 鬲賵夭蹖毓 丕爻鬲賮丕丿賴 讴乇丿蹖賲.
賲丕 亘賴 賵爻蹖賱賴鈥屰� 賲賳丨賳蹖 賱毓賳鬲蹖 夭賳诏賵賱賴鈥屫й� 讴賵乇 卮丿蹖賲 賵 丌賳 乇丕 亘乇丕蹖 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й屰� 丕爻鬲賮丕丿賴 讴乇丿蹖賲 讴賴 匕丕鬲丕賸 亘丕 鬲賵夭蹖毓 賳乇賲丕賱 賯丕亘賱 亘乇乇爻蹖 賳蹖爻鬲賳丿. 鬲賵夭蹖毓 賳乇賲丕賱 賮賯胤 亘乇丕蹖 亘毓囟蹖 丕夭 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й� 賲蹖丕賳鈥屭必� 賯丕亘賱 丕爻鬲賮丕丿賴 丕爻鬲 賵 賵賯鬲蹖 氐丨亘鬲 丕夭 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗃屬呚� 亘賴 賴蹖趩 丿乇丿蹖 賳賲蹖鈥屫堌必�.
賲賲讴賳 丕爻鬲 賮讴乇 讴賳蹖賲 丕禺鬲乇丕毓 讴丕賲倬蹖賵鬲乇 (賵 丨丕賱丕 賴賵卮 賲氐賳賵毓蹖) 亘賴 賲丕 丿乇 賲丨丕爻亘賴 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴 讴賲讴 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗀�. 丕夭 賳馗乇 鬲卅賵乇蹖貙 亘毓囟蹖 丕夭 賳乇賲鈥屫з佖藏ж辟囏� 賯丕丿乇賳丿 鬲丕 亘蹖鈥屬嗁囏й屫� 亘乇丕蹖 賲丕 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 賲丨丕爻亘賴 讴賳賳丿貙 賵賱蹖 胤丕賱亘 丿乇 讴鬲丕亘 賳卮丕賳 賲蹖鈥屫囏� 讴賴 亘丕 丿賵乇 卮丿賳 丕夭 夭賲丕賳 丨丕賱貙 丿賯鬲 倬蹖卮鈥屸€屫ㄛ屬嗃屸€屬囏� 亘賴 爻乇毓鬲 亘賴 氐賮乇 賲蹖賱 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗀�.
倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 亘乇 丕爻丕爻 鬲丕乇蹖禺
卮丕蹖丿 亘鬲賵丕賳蹖賲 丕夭 鬲丕乇蹖禺 丿乇爻鈥屬囏й屰� 亘诏蹖乇蹖賲貙 賵賱蹖 倬蹖卮鈥屸€屫ㄛ屬嗃� 乇賵蹖丿丕丿賴丕蹖 丌蹖賳丿賴 亘乇 丕爻丕爻 鬲噩乇亘蹖丕鬲 诏匕卮鬲賴 丿乇 亘爻蹖丕乇蹖 丕夭 賲賵丕乇丿 讴丕乇蹖 夭蹖丕賳鈥屫ㄘж� 丕爻鬲. 亘爻蹖丕乇蹖 丕夭 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й� 鬲丕乇蹖禺蹖 -賲孬賱丕 噩賳诏鈥屬囏�- 丕爻丕爻丕賸 賯丕亘賱 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 賳蹖爻鬲賳丿.
趩乇丕 賳馗丕賲 爻乇賲丕蹖賴鈥屫ж臂� 讴丕乇 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗀�
胤丕賱亘 蹖讴蹖 丕夭 賲賴賲鬲乇蹖賳 丕爻鬲丿賱丕賱鈥屬囏� 亘賴 賳賮毓 讴丕倬蹖鬲丕賱蹖爻賲 乇丕 丕蹖賳 亘丕乇 丕夭 賳诏丕賴 卮丕賳爻 賵 鬲氐丕丿賮貙 卮乇丨 賲蹖鈥屫囏�:
賳馗丕賲鈥屬囏й� 賲鬲賲乇讴夭(賲孬賱丕 爻賵爻蹖丕賱蹖爻賲 賵 賮丕卮蹖爻賲) 丕爻丕爻丕賸 賯丕丿乇 亘賴 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 亘賴鬲乇蹖賳 丕賳鬲禺丕亘鈥屬囏� 亘乇丕蹖 噩丕賲毓賴 賳蹖爻鬲賳丿 丨鬲蹖 丕诏乇 丿乇 丿爻鬲 亘賴鬲乇蹖賳 丕賮乇丕丿 亘丕卮賳丿. 丕蹖賳 賳馗丕賲 睾蹖乇賲鬲賲乇讴夭 丿乇 賯丕賱亘 讴丕倬蹖鬲丕賱蹖爻賲 賵 亘丕夭丕乇 丌夭丕丿 丕爻鬲 讴賴 亘賴 鬲讴 鬲讴 丕賮乇丕丿 丕噩丕夭賴鈥屰� 丌夭賲賵賳 賵 禺胤丕 賲蹖鈥屫囏� 鬲丕 亘賴蹖賳賴鈥屫臂屬� 乇丕賴鈥屬囏� 亘乇诏夭蹖丿賴 卮賵丿:
The reason free markets work is because they allow people to be lucky, thanks to aggressive trial and error.
賵 賳爻蹖賲 胤丕賱亘 賲孬賱 賲賳 丕夭 毓賱丕賯賴鈥屬呝嗀з� 亘賴 賴丕蹖讴 丕爻鬲:
For Hayek, a true forcast is done organically by a system, not by fiat. One single institution, say, the central planner, cannot aggregate knowledge; many important pieces of information will be missing. But society as a whole will be able to integrate into its functioning these multiple pieces of information.
胤丕賱亘 丕卮丕乇賴 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗀� 讴賴 丿乇 賳馗丕賲 讴丕倬蹖鬲丕賱蹖爻鬲蹖 卮乇讴鬲鈥屬囏й� 賳丕讴丕乇丌賲丿 丕夭 乇賯丕亘鬲 禺丕乇噩 賲蹖鈥屫促堎嗀� 丕賲丕 丿乇 賳馗丕賲鈥屬囏й� 爻賵爻蹖丕賱蹖爻鬲蹖 丨賲丕蹖鬲鈥屬囏й� 賳丕丿乇爻鬲 丿賵賱鬲 亘丕毓孬 賲蹖鈥屫促堌� 卮乇讴鬲鈥屬囏й� 亘夭乇诏賽 賳丕讴丕乇丌賲丿 賴賲趩賳丕賳 亘乇倬丕 亘賲丕賳賳丿. 丿乇 賵丕賯毓 亘乇禺賱丕賮 鬲氐賵乇 乇丕蹖噩貙 丕蹖賳 賳馗丕賲 爻賵爻蹖丕賱蹖鬲蹖 丕爻鬲 讴賴 亘賴 卮乇讴鬲鈥屬囏й� 亘夭乇诏 亘丕噩 賲蹖鈥屫囏�.
Capitalism is the revitalisation of the world thanks to opportunity to be lucky. Luck is the grand equalizer, because almost everyone can benefit from it. The socialist governments protected their monsters and, by doing so, killed potential newcomers in the womb.
亘毓囟蹖 丕夭 芦賲鬲禺氐氐丕賳賽禄 賲賵囟賵毓丕鬲 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃屸€屬嗀з矩佰屫必� 卮蹖丕丿賳丿!
丿乇 讴鬲丕亘 賯亘賱蹖 賴賲 诏賮鬲蹖賲貙 亘乇丕蹖 鬲賵囟蹖丨 賵 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 亘爻蹖丕乇蹖 丕夭 倬丿蹖丿賴鈥屬囏� 賲卮丕賴丿賴鈥屰� 蹖丕賮鬲賴鈥屬囏й� 鬲讴乇丕乇蹖 賵 亘賴 賳賮毓賽 賮乇囟蹖賴鈥屰� 賲丕 亘乇丕蹖 鬲丕蹖蹖丿 賮乇囟蹖賴鈥屰� 賲丕 讴丕賮蹖 賳蹖爻鬲貙 賴賲丕賳胤賵乇 讴賴 亘賵賯賱賲賵賳 爻丕丿賴鈥屬勝堌� 賳亘丕蹖丿 亘乇丕爻丕爻 賲卮丕賴丿丕鬲 乇賵夭賲乇賴鈥屫ж� 氐賱丨 賵 氐賮丕 丿乇 讴賳丕乇 丕賳爻丕賳鈥屬囏� 乇丕 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 賲蹖鈥屭┴必�.
丿乇 賵丕賯毓 賲蹖鈥屫堌з� 亘乇丕蹖 鬲賯乇蹖亘丕賸 賴乇 賮乇囟蹖賴鈥屫й� 丿丕丿賴鈥屬囏й屰屘� 丿乇 鬲丕蹖蹖丿 賮乇囟蹖賴 蹖丕賮鬲.
丕蹖賳噩丕爻鬲 讴賴 丿乇 賮賱爻賮賴鈥屰� 毓賱賲貙 丕亘胤丕賱鈥屬矩佰屫臂� 倬賵倬乇 亘賴 讴丕乇 賲蹖鈥屫③屫�. 丕孬亘丕鬲 賳丕丿乇爻鬲蹖賽 亘爻蹖丕乇蹖 丕夭 賮乇囟蹖賴鈥屬囏� 爻丕丿賴鈥屫� 丕夭 丕孬亘丕鬲 丿乇爻鬲蹖賽 丌賳鈥屬囏ж池�: 賮賯胤 丿蹖丿賳 蹖讴 賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴 亘乇丕蹖 賳丕丿乇爻鬲 丿丕賳爻鬲賳 诏夭丕乇賴鈥屰� 芦賴賲賴鈥屰� 賯賵賴丕 爻賮蹖丿賳丿禄 讴丕賮蹖爻鬲貙 丕賲丕 賴乇趩賯丿乇 賯賵蹖 爻賮蹖丿 亘亘蹖賳蹖賲 亘乇丕蹖 鬲兀蹖蹖丿 丿乇爻鬲蹖賽 诏夭丕乇賴鈥屰� 芦賴賲賴鈥屰� 賯賵賴丕 爻賮蹖丿賳丿禄 讴丕賮蹖 賳蹖爻鬲
Sometimes a lot of data can be meaningless, at other times one single piece of information can be very meaningful.
丿賯鬲 讴賳蹖丿 讴賴 丨乇賮 胤丕賱亘 丕蹖賳 賳蹖爻鬲 讴賴 亘賴 賴蹖趩 賲鬲禺氐氐蹖 丕毓鬲賲丕丿 賳讴賳蹖丿貙 亘賱讴賴 丕賵 賲毓鬲賯丿 丕爻鬲 賲鬲禺氐氐蹖賳 丿乇 亘毓囟蹖 丕夭 賲賵囟賵毓丕鬲貙 亘蹖卮鬲乇 賲爻鬲毓丿 丕卮鬲亘丕賴 讴乇丿賳 賵 鬲亘丿蹖賱 卮丿賳 亘賴 卮蹖丕丿 丿丕乇賳丿!
賲孬丕賱鈥屬囏й屰� 丕夭 賲鬲禺氐氐丕賳蹖 讴賴 亘蹖卮鬲乇 賲蹖鈥屫堌з� 乇賵蹖 丨乇賮卮丕賳 丨爻丕亘 讴乇丿: 丿丕賲倬夭卮讴丕賳貙 賮囟丕賳賵乇丿丕賳貙 丕爻鬲丕丿丕賳 卮胤乇賳噩貙 賮蹖夭蹖讴丿丕賳鈥屬囏ж� 丨爻丕亘丿丕乇賴丕貙 噩乇丕丨鈥屬囏� 賵...
賲孬丕賱鈥屬囏й屰� 丕夭 賲鬲禺氐氐丕賳蹖 讴賴 亘丕 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й� 亘爻蹖丕乇 倬蹖趩蹖丿賴 賵 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃屸€屬嗀з矩佰屫� 爻乇 賵 讴丕乇 丿丕乇賳丿貙 亘賳丕亘乇丕蹖賳 倬鬲丕賳爻蹖賱 亘蹖卮鬲乇蹖 亘乇丕蹖 卮蹖丕丿 亘賵丿賳 丿丕乇賳丿:
爻蹖诏賳丕賱鈥屫囐嗀з� 亘丕夭丕乇 爻賴丕賲貙 乇賵丕賳卮賳丕爻丕賳 亘丕賱蹖賳蹖貙 賯丕囟蹖鈥屬囏й� 丿丕丿诏丕賴貙 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃屸€屭┵嗁嗀з� 丕賯鬲氐丕丿蹖貙 讴丕乇卮賳丕爻丕賳 毓賱賵賲 爻蹖丕爻蹖 賵 ...(賯胤毓丕賸 亘賴卮丕賳 亘乇賲蹖鈥屫堌必�!)
賳讴鬲賴鈥屰� 亘丕賲夭賴 丕蹖賳噩丕爻鬲 讴賴 亘毓囟蹖 丕夭 賲胤丕賱毓丕鬲 賳卮丕賳 賲蹖鈥屫囐嗀� 賲鬲禺氐氐丕賳 丕蹖賳 丕賲賵乇 丨鬲蹖 丕夭 丕賮乇丕丿 毓丕丿蹖 賳蹖夭 丿乇 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 丕賲讴丕賳 亘乇賵夭 禺胤丕蹖 亘蹖卮鬲乇蹖 丿丕乇賳丿貙 卮丕蹖丿 亘賴 丕蹖賳 禺丕胤乇 讴賴 賵噩賵丿 丿丕丿賴鈥屬囏й� 亘爻蹖丕乇 (賵 丕賱亘鬲賴 诏丕賴蹖 亘賴 丿乇丿 賳禺賵乇) 賵 鬲禺氐氐 賮乇丿 亘丕毓孬 亘乇賵夭 丕毓鬲賲丕丿 亘賴 賳賮爻 讴丕匕亘蹖 賲蹖鈥屫促堌� 讴賴 丕丨鬲賲丕賱 亘乇賵夭 禺胤丕 乇丕 亘丕賱丕 賲蹖鈥屫ㄘ必�.
丨丕賱丕 趩賴 讴丕乇 讴賳蹖賲責
爻賵丕賱蹖 讴賴 賲胤乇丨 賲蹖鈥屫促堌� 丕蹖賳噩丕爻鬲 讴賴 丿乇 亘乇丕亘乇 噩賴丕賳蹖 讴賴 鬲氐丕丿賮 賵 丕丨鬲賲丕賱丕鬲 賳賯卮 亘夭乇诏蹖 乇丕 丿乇 丌賳 丕蹖賮丕 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗁嗀� 賵 賲鬲禺氐氐鈥屬嗁呚з囏� 亘賴 賲丕 丿乇亘丕乇賴鈥屰� 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃屬� 丌蹖賳丿賴 丿乇賵睾 賲蹖鈥屭堐屬嗀� 趩賴 亘丕蹖丿 讴乇丿責
郾賭 賳蹖賲賴鈥屫蹿┴и� 亘丕卮蹖丿: 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃屸€屬囏з嗀з矩佰屫辟囏� 乇丕 亘卮賳丕爻蹖丿 賵 丿乇 亘乇禺賵乇丿 亘丕 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 讴賳賳丿诏丕賳賽 趩賳蹖賳 倬丿蹖丿赖鈥属囏й屰� 卮讴丕讴 亘丕卮蹖丿. 亘倬匕蹖乇蹖丿 讴賴 丕賳爻丕賳 亘賵丿賳 賴賲乇丕賴 丕爻鬲 亘丕 丿丕賳爻鬲賳 亘毓囟蹖 趩蹖夭賴丕 賵 賳丿丕賳爻鬲賳 趩蹖夭賴丕蹖蹖 亘爻蹖丕乇 亘蹖卮鬲乇蹖.
鄄賭 鬲氐丕丿賮蹖 亘賵丿賳 賵 倬蹖趩蹖丿诏蹖賽 噩賴丕賳 亘賴 丕蹖賳 賲毓賳蹖 賳蹖爻鬲 讴賴 丿爻鬲 乇賵蹖 丿爻鬲 亘诏匕丕乇蹖丿 賵 鬲賱丕卮 賳讴賳蹖丿. 亘賴 蹖丕丿 丿丕卮鬲賴 亘丕卮蹖丿: 卮丕賳爻 丿乇賽 禺丕賳賴鈥屰� 丌丿賲鈥屬囏й� 丌賲丕丿賴 乇丕 賲蹖鈥屫操嗀�! (luck favors the prepared)
鄢賭 丕蹖賳讴賴 卮賲丕 亘丿丕賳蹖丿 賳賲蹖鈥屫堌з� 亘爻蹖丕乇蹖 丕夭 趩蹖夭賴丕 乇丕 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃� 讴乇丿 亘賴 賲毓賳蹖 丕蹖賳 賳蹖爻鬲 讴賴 賳賲蹖鈥屫堌з嗃屫� 丕夭 倬蹖卮鈥屫ㄛ屬嗃屸€屬嗀з矩佰屫辟囏� 爻賵丿 亘亘乇蹖丿. 丿乇 賵丕賯毓 胤丕賱亘 丿乇 讴鬲丕亘鈥屬囏й屫� 丕爻鬲乇丕鬲跇蹖鈥屬囏й屰� 乇丕 賲胤乇丨 賲蹖鈥屭┵嗀� 讴賴 禺賵丿鬲丕賳 乇丕 丿乇 賲毓乇囟 亘蹖卮鬲乇蹖賳 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴賽 賲孬亘鬲 賯乇丕乇 丿賴蹖丿 賵 丿乇 毓蹖賳 丨丕賱 夭蹖丕賳 賳丕卮蹖 丕夭 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴賽 賲賳賮蹖 乇丕 亘賴 丨丿丕賯賱 亘乇爻丕賳蹖丿貙 (賲孬丕賱: 丿乇 亘丕夭丕乇賴丕蹖 賲丕賱蹖貙 亘丕夭丕乇 丌倬卮賳 亘丕 丕賴乇賲 丨丿丕讴孬乇蹖 蹖讴蹖 丕夭 丕蹖賳 诏夭蹖賳賴鈥屬囏ж池� 蹖丕 夭賳丿诏蹖 丿乇 卮賴乇賴丕蹖 亘夭乇诏 亘丕 丿賱蹖賱 丕賮夭丕蹖卮 亘乇禺賵乇丿 亘丕 倬蹖趩蹖丿诏蹖 卮丕賳爻 卮賲丕 乇丕 亘乇丕蹖 賲賵丕噩賴賴 亘丕 賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴 賲孬亘鬲 賵 倬蹖卮乇賮鬲 丕賮夭丕蹖卮 賲蹖鈥屫囏�)
***
丕蹖賳 乇蹖賵蹖賵 賴賲 蹖讴蹖 丕夭 胤賵賱丕賳蹖鈥屫臂屬� 乇蹖賵蹖賵賴丕 卮丿貙 賵賱蹖 亘爻蹖丕乇蹖 丕夭 倬蹖趩蹖丿诏蹖鈥屬囏� 賵 馗乇丕蹖賮 讴鬲丕亘貙 賳丕诏賮鬲賴 賲丕賳丿.
October 9, 2016
Taleb is a pretty good writer, but I thought this was a very uneven book. As I read it I was constantly alternating between "Wow, that's a really great insight, a great way of presenting it" and "Gee, who doesn't realize that?", or even "That just seems flat-out wrong".
It's a book that should have been read by the quantitative analysts ("quants") working for the hedge funds and investment banks in early 2008; but it probably wouldn't have made much difference in the financial melt-down that followed. The problem with all their quantitative analysis was, as Taleb rightly points out, that it assumed that everything that could happen in the markets belonged to the domain of bell-curve events, and that hence probabilities could be computed for any possible market outcome. But "Black Swan" events (very rare, not even things we think about happening, and not linked to the factors that determine day to day market swings) do occur, they are of course unpredictable, and they can have massive effects. Some sorts of unpredictable events (such as unexpected conflict flareups, deaths of influential national leaders) are not Black Swan events because they are events we know about, and they are not really unexpected - only the timing is in doubt. Others, the real Black Swans, such as 9/11 and the derivatives bubble, have effects that play out over years.
But really, other than as a cautionary tale for those whose job it is to predict (unpredictable) things on a daily basis, these observations probably don't surprise most people who have thought much about the nature of reality and our grasp of the future. No one that I know owns a crystal ball. Without one even broad outlines of the future, that we believe are pretty certain, still have an element of risk/uncertainty; and perhaps a more significant element than we realize.
As the esteemed Donald (not Trump, the other one) pointed out, in one of his rare truly insightful comments, there are the unknowns that we know about, and the unknowns that we don't know about. It's the latter part of reality where the Black Swans live. (Of course, they also live in Australia, which is how the phrase got its meaning.)
It's a book that should have been read by the quantitative analysts ("quants") working for the hedge funds and investment banks in early 2008; but it probably wouldn't have made much difference in the financial melt-down that followed. The problem with all their quantitative analysis was, as Taleb rightly points out, that it assumed that everything that could happen in the markets belonged to the domain of bell-curve events, and that hence probabilities could be computed for any possible market outcome. But "Black Swan" events (very rare, not even things we think about happening, and not linked to the factors that determine day to day market swings) do occur, they are of course unpredictable, and they can have massive effects. Some sorts of unpredictable events (such as unexpected conflict flareups, deaths of influential national leaders) are not Black Swan events because they are events we know about, and they are not really unexpected - only the timing is in doubt. Others, the real Black Swans, such as 9/11 and the derivatives bubble, have effects that play out over years.
But really, other than as a cautionary tale for those whose job it is to predict (unpredictable) things on a daily basis, these observations probably don't surprise most people who have thought much about the nature of reality and our grasp of the future. No one that I know owns a crystal ball. Without one even broad outlines of the future, that we believe are pretty certain, still have an element of risk/uncertainty; and perhaps a more significant element than we realize.
As the esteemed Donald (not Trump, the other one) pointed out, in one of his rare truly insightful comments, there are the unknowns that we know about, and the unknowns that we don't know about. It's the latter part of reality where the Black Swans live. (Of course, they also live in Australia, which is how the phrase got its meaning.)
Read
February 4, 2025It has been more than two months since I read this book and only now I succeed in writing a review about what this book can mean for a historian. That says something about how difficult it is to separate the problematic aspects of this book (the arrogant and polemical tone) from the real content. Because Taleb does have something to say for those who look at the past.
For the sake of clarity, firstly his definition of Black Swans: these are unexpected events, both negative and positive, with a huge impact, where no prior warnings exist for those who experience the event, but of which we post-factually are able to give explanations and thus have the impression that they were nevertheless predictable. That is already quite something to chew on. What Taleb offers is the paradoxical side of Black Swans: they come unexpectedly, but we can explain them perfectly afterwards. Some examples: the First World War had to break out if you see how recklessly in the decades before an arms race was under way and how the political leaders underestimated the enormous implications of their aggressive behavior; the fall of the Communist bloc in 1989 could have been predicted, because there were many indications that the economies of those countries were broke, that they were military-technological giants on clay feet, and that their populations only confessed to the official ideology for appearances; and so on, and so on.
Taleb sketches nothing less here, than the work historians do (and by extension of course also journalists and other categories): explaining why something happened. You could have the impression that he actually takes this as a child's play: every one could predict the outcome, given the right facts. But of course, Taleb is not that stupid. In his book there is one striking example that, in all its simplicity, explains the core problem of historical observation. Taleb quotes a scientific experiment: suppose you have an ice block of 1 cubic meter, and you put that in a heated room; by applying a number of scientific laws you can almost perfectly predict how quickly this ice block will melt and how large the pool of water eventually will be; but then think about the reverse experiment: you start with a large pool of water in a room; you can formulate dozens or even hundreds of explanations of how that pool came about, of which only one is that of the experiment with the ice block. In other words: it鈥檚 nearly impossible to find out exactly what happened.
When I read this, I was initially very impressed: indeed, the dense veil that hangs over the past makes it almost impossible for a historian to reconstruct what really happened. But after some thought, I have to admit that I felt badly deceived, or better, that I was angry with myself that I had not seen it at once. Because the experiment of Taleb is of such simplicity that it is not realistic: from the experience of a historian we know that there have to be a lot more clues in the room than the simple pool of water: maybe there were still people in white lab coats running around indicating a scientific experiment, perhaps there were heat-convectors in the immediate vicinity, maybe in the puddle there still was the wooden pallet on which the ice block was transported, perhaps scientific reports surfaced in which the experiment was literally described, or perhaps there was a cleaning crew present of which some people had seen everything happen, etc. To keep it short: a really perfect reconstruction may not be easy, but there are always enough traces that provide an approximative, plausible explanation. And just that last thing, and the methodology that comes with it, is the work of the historian.
Another interesting aspect in this book is that Taleb gives many explanations why we do not see Black Swans coming, and that is also relevant to the work of the historian, because it shows where the pitfalls lie, the classic "fallacies" of which one half century ago the American historian D.H. Fischer gave an almost exhaustive list in his seminal work . Taleb mainly focusses on psychological-mental aspects: our very human inclination, for example, to always assume that things will continue to go as they go now; we are mentally blind to the factor of change and chance in history. What is especially bad is that now we think we can predict the future better because of the flight science has taken and has brought more knowledge to the foreside. No wonder Taleb has a lot of criticism on econometrists and demographers who make predictions about economic growth, population trends and so on, which in retrospect almost always prove to be incorrect.
Now, Taleb blames this mainly on the use of wrong probability models (and the technicality of this makes the reading of the second half of this book so difficult). And that's where - according to me - he gets trapped in an own kind of contradiction. His book is full of historical examples of predictions and expectations that turned out to be wrong, and at the end of his book he argues for a form of stoicism because we cannot know which unexpected things can happen. But in other places he argues that we are able to demarcate an area (he calls it Mediocristan) where we are fairly safe, and thus also a very small area (Extremistan) where the Black Swans are active; and this knowledge, that demarcation, could protect us to a certain extent against huge mistakes.
I'm afraid that, in all its vagueness, with this Taleb once again opens the door to historians who imagine that, based on facts from the past, they can predict the future to some extent, and we are back to square one. The incomprehensible thing is that Taleb himself warnes against these kind of mistakes, mistakes that are inherent to mankind: "We do not spontaneously learn that we don鈥檛 learn that we don鈥檛 learn. The problem lies in the structure of our minds: we don鈥檛 learn rules, just facts, and only facts. Metarules (such as the rule that we have a tendency to not learn rules) we don鈥檛 seem to be good at getting. We scorn the abstract; we scorn it with passion "(pp xxvi). It is a lesson an historian should always remember.
For the sake of clarity, firstly his definition of Black Swans: these are unexpected events, both negative and positive, with a huge impact, where no prior warnings exist for those who experience the event, but of which we post-factually are able to give explanations and thus have the impression that they were nevertheless predictable. That is already quite something to chew on. What Taleb offers is the paradoxical side of Black Swans: they come unexpectedly, but we can explain them perfectly afterwards. Some examples: the First World War had to break out if you see how recklessly in the decades before an arms race was under way and how the political leaders underestimated the enormous implications of their aggressive behavior; the fall of the Communist bloc in 1989 could have been predicted, because there were many indications that the economies of those countries were broke, that they were military-technological giants on clay feet, and that their populations only confessed to the official ideology for appearances; and so on, and so on.
Taleb sketches nothing less here, than the work historians do (and by extension of course also journalists and other categories): explaining why something happened. You could have the impression that he actually takes this as a child's play: every one could predict the outcome, given the right facts. But of course, Taleb is not that stupid. In his book there is one striking example that, in all its simplicity, explains the core problem of historical observation. Taleb quotes a scientific experiment: suppose you have an ice block of 1 cubic meter, and you put that in a heated room; by applying a number of scientific laws you can almost perfectly predict how quickly this ice block will melt and how large the pool of water eventually will be; but then think about the reverse experiment: you start with a large pool of water in a room; you can formulate dozens or even hundreds of explanations of how that pool came about, of which only one is that of the experiment with the ice block. In other words: it鈥檚 nearly impossible to find out exactly what happened.
When I read this, I was initially very impressed: indeed, the dense veil that hangs over the past makes it almost impossible for a historian to reconstruct what really happened. But after some thought, I have to admit that I felt badly deceived, or better, that I was angry with myself that I had not seen it at once. Because the experiment of Taleb is of such simplicity that it is not realistic: from the experience of a historian we know that there have to be a lot more clues in the room than the simple pool of water: maybe there were still people in white lab coats running around indicating a scientific experiment, perhaps there were heat-convectors in the immediate vicinity, maybe in the puddle there still was the wooden pallet on which the ice block was transported, perhaps scientific reports surfaced in which the experiment was literally described, or perhaps there was a cleaning crew present of which some people had seen everything happen, etc. To keep it short: a really perfect reconstruction may not be easy, but there are always enough traces that provide an approximative, plausible explanation. And just that last thing, and the methodology that comes with it, is the work of the historian.
Another interesting aspect in this book is that Taleb gives many explanations why we do not see Black Swans coming, and that is also relevant to the work of the historian, because it shows where the pitfalls lie, the classic "fallacies" of which one half century ago the American historian D.H. Fischer gave an almost exhaustive list in his seminal work . Taleb mainly focusses on psychological-mental aspects: our very human inclination, for example, to always assume that things will continue to go as they go now; we are mentally blind to the factor of change and chance in history. What is especially bad is that now we think we can predict the future better because of the flight science has taken and has brought more knowledge to the foreside. No wonder Taleb has a lot of criticism on econometrists and demographers who make predictions about economic growth, population trends and so on, which in retrospect almost always prove to be incorrect.
Now, Taleb blames this mainly on the use of wrong probability models (and the technicality of this makes the reading of the second half of this book so difficult). And that's where - according to me - he gets trapped in an own kind of contradiction. His book is full of historical examples of predictions and expectations that turned out to be wrong, and at the end of his book he argues for a form of stoicism because we cannot know which unexpected things can happen. But in other places he argues that we are able to demarcate an area (he calls it Mediocristan) where we are fairly safe, and thus also a very small area (Extremistan) where the Black Swans are active; and this knowledge, that demarcation, could protect us to a certain extent against huge mistakes.
I'm afraid that, in all its vagueness, with this Taleb once again opens the door to historians who imagine that, based on facts from the past, they can predict the future to some extent, and we are back to square one. The incomprehensible thing is that Taleb himself warnes against these kind of mistakes, mistakes that are inherent to mankind: "We do not spontaneously learn that we don鈥檛 learn that we don鈥檛 learn. The problem lies in the structure of our minds: we don鈥檛 learn rules, just facts, and only facts. Metarules (such as the rule that we have a tendency to not learn rules) we don鈥檛 seem to be good at getting. We scorn the abstract; we scorn it with passion "(pp xxvi). It is a lesson an historian should always remember.
August 8, 2008
This review will be comprised of two parts: a review of the ideas presented and a review of the way in which it is written
(A) The ideas
There is no question here, Taleb is an erudite and intelligent scholar. His take on epistomology and the scientific method breathe fresh air into the subject and gloss it with some 21st century context.
It would be difficult for me to overstate the importance of the black swan problem in modern life and the degree to which we are, as societies, unaware of its impact. However, anybody with half a background in statistics, chaos theory or the philosophy of science will have encountered most of the concepts in this book before and will have cogitated at length over them. Still, Taleb's text acts both as a refresher course and a collection of intelligent new perspectives on the subject which make for a decent think-a-thon. For that reason somebody with an interest should give this book a go.
(B) The execution
This book could have been a third of its length. Taleb comes across as insufferable and fustian. His one-page-per-topic writing style flits between ideas without exploring or explaining them properly. The narrative is disjoint and underdeveloped. Only at the end of the book does he even begin to make some positive suggestions for replacing the intellectual institutions he (rightly) criticises.
Anybody who has read Richard Dawkins will be familiar with the arrogance with which Taleb states his claims and dismisses the thinking of others. It is almost enough to make one toss the book away.
So I gave this book two stars. I valued the content but it is most definitely not groundbreaking and it most definitely is not well written.
'Fooled by randomness' is slightly better.
(A) The ideas
There is no question here, Taleb is an erudite and intelligent scholar. His take on epistomology and the scientific method breathe fresh air into the subject and gloss it with some 21st century context.
It would be difficult for me to overstate the importance of the black swan problem in modern life and the degree to which we are, as societies, unaware of its impact. However, anybody with half a background in statistics, chaos theory or the philosophy of science will have encountered most of the concepts in this book before and will have cogitated at length over them. Still, Taleb's text acts both as a refresher course and a collection of intelligent new perspectives on the subject which make for a decent think-a-thon. For that reason somebody with an interest should give this book a go.
(B) The execution
This book could have been a third of its length. Taleb comes across as insufferable and fustian. His one-page-per-topic writing style flits between ideas without exploring or explaining them properly. The narrative is disjoint and underdeveloped. Only at the end of the book does he even begin to make some positive suggestions for replacing the intellectual institutions he (rightly) criticises.
Anybody who has read Richard Dawkins will be familiar with the arrogance with which Taleb states his claims and dismisses the thinking of others. It is almost enough to make one toss the book away.
So I gave this book two stars. I valued the content but it is most definitely not groundbreaking and it most definitely is not well written.
'Fooled by randomness' is slightly better.
March 18, 2009
A lot of blogs said a lot of nice things about this book, and from this I conclude that most of those bloggers either A) strictly read the executive summary or B) only read other bloggers. This is a pretty terrible book, and while it has one or two good ideas, they are better and more rigorously expressed in books like "Sway" or "The Drunkard's Walk" than they are in this shameless exercise in self promotion.
The fact that the author displays a limited understanding of the topic, and tends to lump everything he doesn't understand into the same bucket would be forgivable from an author possessed of wit and charm. Sadly, we get neither, and no small portion of the book is dedicated to elaborations on the author's high opinion of himself and low opinions of virtually everyone else.
If you are thinking about reading the book because you've heard the term "A Black Swan" in an interesting context, I can only attempt to wave my arms in frantic warning. The eponymous black swan is an event which is highly unlikely to happen, so unlikely as to be unpredictable, but which happens anyway because when a lot of things happen (and they do) then it becomes nearly certain that some of them will be wildly unlikely. The greater the range of possible outcomes, the more disruptive this black swan will be. In short, if you grasp normal distribution, you already know this.
This is very much an "Everyone But Me Is Stupid" sort of book, and as such it is guaranteed to have a certain appeal to readers who share that sentiment. If that's the case then it's probably a good read, but otherwise I really strongly endorse any other book on the topic. Either of two I mention (Brafman & Brafman's 'Sway' and Mlodinow's 'The Drunkard's Walk') will be more informative and vastly more entertaining.
The fact that the author displays a limited understanding of the topic, and tends to lump everything he doesn't understand into the same bucket would be forgivable from an author possessed of wit and charm. Sadly, we get neither, and no small portion of the book is dedicated to elaborations on the author's high opinion of himself and low opinions of virtually everyone else.
If you are thinking about reading the book because you've heard the term "A Black Swan" in an interesting context, I can only attempt to wave my arms in frantic warning. The eponymous black swan is an event which is highly unlikely to happen, so unlikely as to be unpredictable, but which happens anyway because when a lot of things happen (and they do) then it becomes nearly certain that some of them will be wildly unlikely. The greater the range of possible outcomes, the more disruptive this black swan will be. In short, if you grasp normal distribution, you already know this.
This is very much an "Everyone But Me Is Stupid" sort of book, and as such it is guaranteed to have a certain appeal to readers who share that sentiment. If that's the case then it's probably a good read, but otherwise I really strongly endorse any other book on the topic. Either of two I mention (Brafman & Brafman's 'Sway' and Mlodinow's 'The Drunkard's Walk') will be more informative and vastly more entertaining.
September 5, 2019
I love reading and I rarely criticise authors. I think it takes discipline to complete a book and thus authors deserves respect. This review is my first negative one and hopefully my last. I buddy read this which was the only positive aspect. We read about a chapter a day and every time we discussed it, we would be at a loss for words. I heard such great reviews about this book highlighting that it was quite controversial. Generally i seek out anything controversial but this author is just a rebel without a cause. It was a perfect example of the dunning kruger effect (which is a concept that the author refers too in the book). About 40 % was contradictory ramblings, the other 40 % was an attack on the greatest scientists and philosophers of our time. In fact he even targets every person with an MBA. Another 10 % was about how the author knows more than anybody else in the world (he basically regurgitates known concepts and comes up with new words which he strings听 together to form nonsensical statements). For someone who clearly despises statistics, he claims to understand it better than a Phd student听 (i suppose its normal to spend all your valuable time becoming an expert in a subject so that you can go on to passionately discredit it). The lowest point was when he insulted autistic people encouraging them to send someone else to socialise at a party because apparently he is 'ceratin' that autistic people are incapable of socialising themselves. The last 10 % was basically a constant reminder that the bell curve and statistics in general is complete nonsense. Sorry I may have given the wrong stats (deliberately) but I'm sure that the author won't mind because who needs stats anyway. I honestly didn't see the point of the book. In the beginning of some chapters, he would agree with some mathematician or philosopher but by the end of the the very same chapter, he does a complete 360 (sorry there goes my reference to maths again). The amazing bit is that he actually uses so much of stats and science听to explain his points but then goes on to discredit the very same principles. For someone who is preaching about the fact that most things can't be predicted with certainty (which is rather obvious), he is fairly 'certain' about his viewpoint. In fact he is so certain that he literally created his own aproach to randomness. If you are interested in arrogant ignorance, please read this book. This is by far the worst non fiction book I have read but it did give my friend and I plenty to laugh about so it wasn't a complete waste of time. I highly recommend reading this for pure entertainment.
March 21, 2011
Not as overbearingly arrogant as others claim; in fact, often very self depreciating.
More seriously, his writing style is terribly confusing, made worse by my own unfamiliarity with the subject and his insistence on personal jargon standing in for concepts. Very anectdotal as well as making use of "thought experiments" to illustrate concepts that could have done with more explanation and less story. Yes, I get his point that stories help us learn, but I would argue that stories work best as analogies on the mythical or fable level, or when a single analogy perfectly illustrates an entire principle such as Scroedinger's cat.
Update: cannot get through this muddled mess of a book. Surrendering and returning to the library.
More seriously, his writing style is terribly confusing, made worse by my own unfamiliarity with the subject and his insistence on personal jargon standing in for concepts. Very anectdotal as well as making use of "thought experiments" to illustrate concepts that could have done with more explanation and less story. Yes, I get his point that stories help us learn, but I would argue that stories work best as analogies on the mythical or fable level, or when a single analogy perfectly illustrates an entire principle such as Scroedinger's cat.
Update: cannot get through this muddled mess of a book. Surrendering and returning to the library.
June 23, 2019
Nassim Nicholas Taleb discusses "black swans", unexpected and life-changing events, and how life is far more uncertain than most believe it to be. He also examines, in-depth, how we fool ourselves into believing reality is otherwise by various means like confirmation bias (we look for evidence to support our existing beliefs) and narrative fallacies (the tendency to describe existence using linear stories when reality is far more complicated).
Mix in a heaping dose of storytelling and autobiographical information and you get The Black Swan.
"This combination of low predictability and large impact makes the Black Swan a great puzzle; but that is not yet the core concern of this book. Add to this phenomenon the fact that we tend to act as if it does not exist!" Prologue xxii
This is a dense read, full of philosophical references and terminology. Basically, beyond black swans having a larger impact on reality than we realize they do, this book can be simplified way down to "beware of because" and "know what you don't know".
"Beware of because" because (tee-hee) reality is far more random than most believe it to be. And we suck at predicting the future, for a variety of reasons, but partially because it is impossible to project future events from historical ones.
"Note here that I am not saying causes do not exist; do not use this argument to avoid trying to learn from history. All I am saying is that is it not so simple; be suspicious of the "because" and handle it with care 鈥� particularly in situations where you suspect silent evidence." pgs 120-121
"Silent evidence" is the information not readily apparent for whatever reason. Taleb gives an illustrative example of silent evidence from ancient history of a philosopher being presented an argument that a group of sailors survived a shipwreck because they prayed. The philosopher wonders how many of the sailors who drowned were also praying. The drowned sailors, you see, are the silent evidence.
Biologically, Taleb says, human beings are not set up to be deep thinkers and are fooled by a variety of logical fallacies. This is only a problem because, as time goes on, humanity has less running away to do from things trying to eat us and more dealing with the complexities of modern existence.
But by remembering "to know what we don't know" and understanding some of the limitations built into our brains by memory and logical fallacies, we can be prepared to make better decisions than before. Or, at least, we'll have a better grasp on how risky and unknown life is.
Anyway, this book certainly gave me a lot to think about. The part that struck me the most is when Taleb applies his black swan idea to careers and how this uncertainty applies particularly to authors and artists. For every J.K. Rowling, there will be thousands of writers who never make that break through. I started wondering how many extraordinary books I will never get to read because of this phenomena.
The author's tone throughout the book, slightly irreverent, didn't annoy me as much as it seems to have bothered other readers. I enjoyed learning a new way to look at reality, but, as I mentioned before, this is a dense read and I wouldn't consider it "fun" reading either.
It may appeal most to philosophers and anyone who wants to consider new ways to view reality.
Mix in a heaping dose of storytelling and autobiographical information and you get The Black Swan.
"This combination of low predictability and large impact makes the Black Swan a great puzzle; but that is not yet the core concern of this book. Add to this phenomenon the fact that we tend to act as if it does not exist!" Prologue xxii
This is a dense read, full of philosophical references and terminology. Basically, beyond black swans having a larger impact on reality than we realize they do, this book can be simplified way down to "beware of because" and "know what you don't know".
"Beware of because" because (tee-hee) reality is far more random than most believe it to be. And we suck at predicting the future, for a variety of reasons, but partially because it is impossible to project future events from historical ones.
"Note here that I am not saying causes do not exist; do not use this argument to avoid trying to learn from history. All I am saying is that is it not so simple; be suspicious of the "because" and handle it with care 鈥� particularly in situations where you suspect silent evidence." pgs 120-121
"Silent evidence" is the information not readily apparent for whatever reason. Taleb gives an illustrative example of silent evidence from ancient history of a philosopher being presented an argument that a group of sailors survived a shipwreck because they prayed. The philosopher wonders how many of the sailors who drowned were also praying. The drowned sailors, you see, are the silent evidence.
Biologically, Taleb says, human beings are not set up to be deep thinkers and are fooled by a variety of logical fallacies. This is only a problem because, as time goes on, humanity has less running away to do from things trying to eat us and more dealing with the complexities of modern existence.
But by remembering "to know what we don't know" and understanding some of the limitations built into our brains by memory and logical fallacies, we can be prepared to make better decisions than before. Or, at least, we'll have a better grasp on how risky and unknown life is.
Anyway, this book certainly gave me a lot to think about. The part that struck me the most is when Taleb applies his black swan idea to careers and how this uncertainty applies particularly to authors and artists. For every J.K. Rowling, there will be thousands of writers who never make that break through. I started wondering how many extraordinary books I will never get to read because of this phenomena.
The author's tone throughout the book, slightly irreverent, didn't annoy me as much as it seems to have bothered other readers. I enjoyed learning a new way to look at reality, but, as I mentioned before, this is a dense read and I wouldn't consider it "fun" reading either.
It may appeal most to philosophers and anyone who wants to consider new ways to view reality.
January 23, 2016
丕賱賮賰乇丞 丕賱賲丨賵乇賷丞 賱賴匕丕 丕賱賰鬲丕亘 賴賷 丕賳賰 毓丕噩夭 毓賳 丕賱鬲賰賴賳貙 賵兀賷丕 鬲賰賳 丕賱賳馗乇賷丕鬲 丕賱丕丨氐丕卅賷丞 賵丨爻丕亘 丕賱丕丨鬲賲丕賱丕鬲 丕賱匕賷 鬲毓鬲賲丿賴貙 賮賲丕 賱賲 賷賰賳 賷囟毓 丕賱毓卮賵丕卅賷丞 賵丕賱鬲卮賰賰賷丞 賮賷 丕賱丨爻亘丕賳 賮賴賵 賱丕 賷毓賵賱 毓賱賷賴. 賳丨賳 賳毓賷卮 亘賲賮丕賴賷賲 (賵亘乇賲噩丞) 鬲丨丕賵賱 丕賯賳丕毓賳丕 亘賯丿乇鬲賳丕 毓賱賶 丕賱鬲毓丕賲賱 賲毓 毓丕賱賲 亘賯賵丕賳賷賳 孬丕亘鬲丞貙 毓賳丿賲丕 賱丕 鬲賰賵賳 賴匕賴 賴賷 丕賱丨賯賷賯丞. 賱兀賳 丕賱亘噩毓丕鬲 丕賱爻賵丿丕亍貙 兀賵 丕賱丨丿孬 丕賱丕賯賱 鬲賵賯毓丕 亘賱 丕賱匕賷 賷賯毓 禺丕乇噩 賳胤丕賯 賰賱 丕丨鬲賲丕賱丕鬲賳丕 賷賲賰賳 丕賳 賷丨丿孬 (賲賵噩亘丕 賰丕賳 丕賵 爻丕賱亘丕).
賴賱 鬲丨鬲丕噩 賴匕賴 丕賱賮賰乇丞 丕賱賶 600 氐賮丨丞 賱卮乇丨賴丕. 賱丕 兀毓鬲賯丿. 卮毓乇鬲 丕賳 丕賱賰丕鬲亘 亘丕賱睾 賮賷 丕賱丕爻鬲乇爻丕賱 賮賷 丕賱爻乇丿 賵賴賵 賷卮賷乇 丕賱賶 賴匕丕 賮賷 禺丕鬲賲鬲賴 丨賷賳 賷賯賵賱 丕賳 丕賱賰鬲丕亘 賰鬲亘 賳賮爻賴. 賵賱賰賳賴 乇亘賲丕 卮毓乇 亘丕賱丨丕噩丞 丕賱賶 賰賱 賴匕丕 丕賱賰賱丕賲 賱兀賳 賲丕 賷丨丕賵賱 鬲兀賰賷丿賴 賷賯毓 亘丕賱鬲囟丕丿 賲毓 亘乇賲噩丞 丨丕賱賷丞: 丕賷 鬲賱賰 丕賱賮賰乇丞 丕賱賯丕卅賱丞 丕賳 亘賵爻毓賳丕 亘孬賯丞 賵囟毓 鬲賯丿賷乇丕鬲 氐丨賷丨丞 賱賲丕 賱丕 賳毓賱賲. 賵賴賷 賮賰乇丞 賯丿 賱丕 鬲丐孬乇 丕匕丕 賰丕賳 丕賱鬲賯丿賷乇/丕賱鬲賵賯毓 賲鬲毓賱賯 亘賵噩亘丞 丕賱睾丿丕亍 丕賱鬲賷 兀毓丿鬲賴丕 兀賲賷 丕賱賷賵賲貙 賱賰賳賴丕 賷賲賰賳 丕賳 鬲氐亘丨 賰丕乇孬賷丞/丕毓噩丕夭賷丞 丕匕丕 賰丕賳鬲 鬲鬲毓賱賯 亘鬲賯丿賷乇 賳賲賵 禺賱賷丞 爻乇胤丕賳賷丞 賮賷 禺賱丕賱 爻賳賵丕鬲 兀賵 兀乇亘丕丨 賲丕賱賷丞 賳丕噩賲丞 毓賳 丕爻鬲孬賲丕乇.
賴賳丕賰 氐毓賵亘丞 賮賷 賲賱丕丨賯丞 兀賮賰丕乇 賳爻賷賲 賮賷 丕賱賰鬲丕亘 賵丕賱乇亘胤 亘賷賳賴丕. 賲毓 匕賱賰 賮賴賵 賷毓鬲賲丿 丕爻賱賵亘 賯氐氐賷 亘爻賷胤 賮賷 丕賱賯爻賲賷賳 丕賱丕賵賱 賵丕賱孬丕賳賷 賲賳 丕賱賰鬲丕亘 賲賲丕 賷噩毓賱賴 賯丕丿乇 毓賱賶 丕賱賵氐賵賱 賱賱賯丕乇賷亍 丕賱毓丕丿賷 賵卮丿 丕賱丕賳鬲亘丕賴. 丕賱賯爻賲 丕賱孬丕賱孬 賰丕賳 丕賰孬乇 鬲賯賳賷丞 賵賯丿 賵囟毓 賳爻賷賲 賲賱丕丨馗丕鬲 鬲卮賷乇 丕賱賶 丕賲賰丕賳賷丞 鬲噩丕賵夭賴 賱睾賷乇 丕賱賲禺鬲氐賷賳 丕賵 丕賱賲賴鬲賲賷賳.
丕賱賰鬲丕亘 賷賮鬲丨 丕賱賵毓賷 毓賱賶 兀賮賰丕乇 賱賲 兀賳鬲亘賴 賱賴丕 賲爻亘賯丕 賵賷孬賷乇 丕賱鬲兀賲賱 賮賷 賲丕 賷胤乇丨賴. 乇亘賲丕 賷賰賵賳 丕賷囟丕 亘丿丕賷丞 賱賱鬲睾賷賷乇貙 賵賱賰賳 丕賱鬲睾賷賷乇 賮賷 丕賱鬲毓丕賲賱 賲毓 丕賱鬲賵賯毓丕鬲 賵丕賱鬲賯丿賷乇丕鬲 賱丕 賷丨丿孬 亘亘爻丕胤丞 丕賱丕賳鬲賴丕亍 賲賳 賯乇丕亍丞 丕賱賰鬲丕亘.
賴賱 鬲丨鬲丕噩 賴匕賴 丕賱賮賰乇丞 丕賱賶 600 氐賮丨丞 賱卮乇丨賴丕. 賱丕 兀毓鬲賯丿. 卮毓乇鬲 丕賳 丕賱賰丕鬲亘 亘丕賱睾 賮賷 丕賱丕爻鬲乇爻丕賱 賮賷 丕賱爻乇丿 賵賴賵 賷卮賷乇 丕賱賶 賴匕丕 賮賷 禺丕鬲賲鬲賴 丨賷賳 賷賯賵賱 丕賳 丕賱賰鬲丕亘 賰鬲亘 賳賮爻賴. 賵賱賰賳賴 乇亘賲丕 卮毓乇 亘丕賱丨丕噩丞 丕賱賶 賰賱 賴匕丕 丕賱賰賱丕賲 賱兀賳 賲丕 賷丨丕賵賱 鬲兀賰賷丿賴 賷賯毓 亘丕賱鬲囟丕丿 賲毓 亘乇賲噩丞 丨丕賱賷丞: 丕賷 鬲賱賰 丕賱賮賰乇丞 丕賱賯丕卅賱丞 丕賳 亘賵爻毓賳丕 亘孬賯丞 賵囟毓 鬲賯丿賷乇丕鬲 氐丨賷丨丞 賱賲丕 賱丕 賳毓賱賲. 賵賴賷 賮賰乇丞 賯丿 賱丕 鬲丐孬乇 丕匕丕 賰丕賳 丕賱鬲賯丿賷乇/丕賱鬲賵賯毓 賲鬲毓賱賯 亘賵噩亘丞 丕賱睾丿丕亍 丕賱鬲賷 兀毓丿鬲賴丕 兀賲賷 丕賱賷賵賲貙 賱賰賳賴丕 賷賲賰賳 丕賳 鬲氐亘丨 賰丕乇孬賷丞/丕毓噩丕夭賷丞 丕匕丕 賰丕賳鬲 鬲鬲毓賱賯 亘鬲賯丿賷乇 賳賲賵 禺賱賷丞 爻乇胤丕賳賷丞 賮賷 禺賱丕賱 爻賳賵丕鬲 兀賵 兀乇亘丕丨 賲丕賱賷丞 賳丕噩賲丞 毓賳 丕爻鬲孬賲丕乇.
賴賳丕賰 氐毓賵亘丞 賮賷 賲賱丕丨賯丞 兀賮賰丕乇 賳爻賷賲 賮賷 丕賱賰鬲丕亘 賵丕賱乇亘胤 亘賷賳賴丕. 賲毓 匕賱賰 賮賴賵 賷毓鬲賲丿 丕爻賱賵亘 賯氐氐賷 亘爻賷胤 賮賷 丕賱賯爻賲賷賳 丕賱丕賵賱 賵丕賱孬丕賳賷 賲賳 丕賱賰鬲丕亘 賲賲丕 賷噩毓賱賴 賯丕丿乇 毓賱賶 丕賱賵氐賵賱 賱賱賯丕乇賷亍 丕賱毓丕丿賷 賵卮丿 丕賱丕賳鬲亘丕賴. 丕賱賯爻賲 丕賱孬丕賱孬 賰丕賳 丕賰孬乇 鬲賯賳賷丞 賵賯丿 賵囟毓 賳爻賷賲 賲賱丕丨馗丕鬲 鬲卮賷乇 丕賱賶 丕賲賰丕賳賷丞 鬲噩丕賵夭賴 賱睾賷乇 丕賱賲禺鬲氐賷賳 丕賵 丕賱賲賴鬲賲賷賳.
丕賱賰鬲丕亘 賷賮鬲丨 丕賱賵毓賷 毓賱賶 兀賮賰丕乇 賱賲 兀賳鬲亘賴 賱賴丕 賲爻亘賯丕 賵賷孬賷乇 丕賱鬲兀賲賱 賮賷 賲丕 賷胤乇丨賴. 乇亘賲丕 賷賰賵賳 丕賷囟丕 亘丿丕賷丞 賱賱鬲睾賷賷乇貙 賵賱賰賳 丕賱鬲睾賷賷乇 賮賷 丕賱鬲毓丕賲賱 賲毓 丕賱鬲賵賯毓丕鬲 賵丕賱鬲賯丿賷乇丕鬲 賱丕 賷丨丿孬 亘亘爻丕胤丞 丕賱丕賳鬲賴丕亍 賲賳 賯乇丕亍丞 丕賱賰鬲丕亘.
August 20, 2021
"We never learn."
Here I am, on a beach in Greece, trying to put my thoughts together about this book, which I have enjoyed more than I expected, but at the same time, annoyed me here and there with the writing, which is all over the place.
"We are social animals" - how true is this statement! I never realized this until I worked more than a year from home. I have always considered myself somewhat antisocial, but I was proved wrong. When I returned to the office, I felt like I was in vacation, and this feeling didn't left me yet. And I don't have problems at home, it's just that I never realize how much I missed my colleagues, friends, our jokes and interactions. Above statement has a continuation: "hell is other people" - also true, but some of them can be heaven too: a sparkling conversation, a good joke, a meaninful look, a kind gesture, a shared moment - all these can make someone feel good for a long time.
I didn't find him as arrogant as others said he is (try in , now that's arrogance), mainly because of his intelligence, and humor which made me snort from the beginning to the end. Yes, he's trashing some celebrities' statements in the field, but the way he does it is quite witty and hilarious (albeit not that nice).
But I have preffered to read more real examples, instead of so many thought experiments. Stories do have their roles, true, but in a non-fiction book, too many of them give the impression that the research behind the book was shallow, which clearly it was not. Mr. Taleb is highly erudite and my impression is that he wanted to convey to the reader as much info as possible, which, on one hand, made him repetitive, and on the other, clogged the narration. But he made his point very clear: Black Swan is an unpredictible event with an extreme impact on the world and/or oneself's life, and he does a good job demonstrating it. In relation to it, there are highly interesting topics on luck, uncertainty, probability, and prectictibily - you may be surprised by all the examples provided.
I'm not a philosophy fan, nor economics, and read (by choice) very few books on it; almost everyone today is a philosopher and has a lot of advices for the others. However, the author conveys his ideas and expertise in relation to other sciences, which from my PoV, I have found to be very refreshing, reliable, and accurate. I don't pretend to have advanced economics studies (although I have a master's degree in one of its branches but that's when our ways parted) therefore I can't attest or contradict his knowledge in this book, but I do agree with most of his experiences and life advices, because my life led me, more or less, to the same conclusions. Below quotes resonated the most with me:
"The problem with business people [...] is that if you act like a loser they will treat you as a loser - you set the yardstick yourself. There is no absolute measure of good or bad. It is not what you are telling people, it is how you are saying it."
"[...] just as we tend to underestimate the role of luck in life in general, we tend to overestimate it in games of chance."
"I propose that if you want a simple step to a higher form of life, as distant from the animal as you can get, then you may have to dennarate, that is, shut down the television set, minimize time spent reading newspapers, ignore the blogs. Train your reasoning abilities to control your decisions; nudge System 1 (the heuristic or experiential system) out of the important ones. Train yourself to spot the difference between the sensational and the empirical. This insulation from the toxicity of the world will have an additional benefit: it will improve your well-being. Also, bear in mind how shallow we are with probability, the mother of all abstract notions. You do not have to do much more in order to gain a deeper understanding of things around you. Above all, learn to avoid "tunneling"".
"I once received another piece of life-changing advice, which [...] I find applicable, wise, and emirically valid. My classmate in Paris, the novelist-to-be Jean-Olivier Tedesco, pronounced, as he prevented me from running to catch a subway, "I don't run for trains." Snub your destiny. I have taught myself to resist running to keep on schedule. This may seem a very small piece of advice, but it registered. In refusing to run to catch trains, I have felt the true value of elegance and aesthetics in behaviour, a sense of being in control of my time, my schedule, and my life. Missing a train is only painful if you run after it! Likewise, not matching the idea of success others expect from you is only painful if that's what you are seeking. You stand above the rat race and the pecking order, not outside of it, if you do so by choice."
"It is more difficult to be a loser in a game you set up yourself. In Black Swan terms, this means that you are exposed to the improbable only if you let it control you. You always control what you do; so make this your end."
"I am sometimes taken aback by how people can have a miserable day or get angry because they feel cheated by a bad meal, cold coffee, a social rebuff, or a rude reception. Recall my discussion in Chapter 8 on the difficulty in seeing the true odds of the events that run your own life. We are quick to forget that just being alive is an extraordinary piece of good luck, a remote event, a chance occurance of monsterous proportions. Imagine a speck of dust next to a planet a billion times the size of the earth. The speck of dust represents the odds in favor of your being born; the huge planet would be the odds against it. So stop sweating the small stuff. Don't be like the ingrate who got a castle as a present and worries about the mildew in the bathroom. Stop looking the gift horse in the mouth - remember that you are a Black Swan."
And the best way to demonstrate that his judgement is correct, see this statement made in the essay following the end of this 2nd edition, in 2010: "Once again, I am not saying that we need to stop globalization and travel. We just need to be aware of the side effects, the trade-offs - and few people are. I see the risk of a very strange acute virus spreading through out the planet."
I think Q. E. D.
Here I am, on a beach in Greece, trying to put my thoughts together about this book, which I have enjoyed more than I expected, but at the same time, annoyed me here and there with the writing, which is all over the place.
"We are social animals" - how true is this statement! I never realized this until I worked more than a year from home. I have always considered myself somewhat antisocial, but I was proved wrong. When I returned to the office, I felt like I was in vacation, and this feeling didn't left me yet. And I don't have problems at home, it's just that I never realize how much I missed my colleagues, friends, our jokes and interactions. Above statement has a continuation: "hell is other people" - also true, but some of them can be heaven too: a sparkling conversation, a good joke, a meaninful look, a kind gesture, a shared moment - all these can make someone feel good for a long time.
I didn't find him as arrogant as others said he is (try in , now that's arrogance), mainly because of his intelligence, and humor which made me snort from the beginning to the end. Yes, he's trashing some celebrities' statements in the field, but the way he does it is quite witty and hilarious (albeit not that nice).
But I have preffered to read more real examples, instead of so many thought experiments. Stories do have their roles, true, but in a non-fiction book, too many of them give the impression that the research behind the book was shallow, which clearly it was not. Mr. Taleb is highly erudite and my impression is that he wanted to convey to the reader as much info as possible, which, on one hand, made him repetitive, and on the other, clogged the narration. But he made his point very clear: Black Swan is an unpredictible event with an extreme impact on the world and/or oneself's life, and he does a good job demonstrating it. In relation to it, there are highly interesting topics on luck, uncertainty, probability, and prectictibily - you may be surprised by all the examples provided.
I'm not a philosophy fan, nor economics, and read (by choice) very few books on it; almost everyone today is a philosopher and has a lot of advices for the others. However, the author conveys his ideas and expertise in relation to other sciences, which from my PoV, I have found to be very refreshing, reliable, and accurate. I don't pretend to have advanced economics studies (although I have a master's degree in one of its branches but that's when our ways parted) therefore I can't attest or contradict his knowledge in this book, but I do agree with most of his experiences and life advices, because my life led me, more or less, to the same conclusions. Below quotes resonated the most with me:
"The problem with business people [...] is that if you act like a loser they will treat you as a loser - you set the yardstick yourself. There is no absolute measure of good or bad. It is not what you are telling people, it is how you are saying it."
"[...] just as we tend to underestimate the role of luck in life in general, we tend to overestimate it in games of chance."
"I propose that if you want a simple step to a higher form of life, as distant from the animal as you can get, then you may have to dennarate, that is, shut down the television set, minimize time spent reading newspapers, ignore the blogs. Train your reasoning abilities to control your decisions; nudge System 1 (the heuristic or experiential system) out of the important ones. Train yourself to spot the difference between the sensational and the empirical. This insulation from the toxicity of the world will have an additional benefit: it will improve your well-being. Also, bear in mind how shallow we are with probability, the mother of all abstract notions. You do not have to do much more in order to gain a deeper understanding of things around you. Above all, learn to avoid "tunneling"".
"I once received another piece of life-changing advice, which [...] I find applicable, wise, and emirically valid. My classmate in Paris, the novelist-to-be Jean-Olivier Tedesco, pronounced, as he prevented me from running to catch a subway, "I don't run for trains." Snub your destiny. I have taught myself to resist running to keep on schedule. This may seem a very small piece of advice, but it registered. In refusing to run to catch trains, I have felt the true value of elegance and aesthetics in behaviour, a sense of being in control of my time, my schedule, and my life. Missing a train is only painful if you run after it! Likewise, not matching the idea of success others expect from you is only painful if that's what you are seeking. You stand above the rat race and the pecking order, not outside of it, if you do so by choice."
"It is more difficult to be a loser in a game you set up yourself. In Black Swan terms, this means that you are exposed to the improbable only if you let it control you. You always control what you do; so make this your end."
"I am sometimes taken aback by how people can have a miserable day or get angry because they feel cheated by a bad meal, cold coffee, a social rebuff, or a rude reception. Recall my discussion in Chapter 8 on the difficulty in seeing the true odds of the events that run your own life. We are quick to forget that just being alive is an extraordinary piece of good luck, a remote event, a chance occurance of monsterous proportions. Imagine a speck of dust next to a planet a billion times the size of the earth. The speck of dust represents the odds in favor of your being born; the huge planet would be the odds against it. So stop sweating the small stuff. Don't be like the ingrate who got a castle as a present and worries about the mildew in the bathroom. Stop looking the gift horse in the mouth - remember that you are a Black Swan."
And the best way to demonstrate that his judgement is correct, see this statement made in the essay following the end of this 2nd edition, in 2010: "Once again, I am not saying that we need to stop globalization and travel. We just need to be aware of the side effects, the trade-offs - and few people are. I see the risk of a very strange acute virus spreading through out the planet."
I think Q. E. D.
September 21, 2020
袩褨褋谢褟 褍褋褨褦褩 褎褨谢芯褋芯褎褋褜泻芯褩, 褨褋褌芯褉懈褔薪芯, 褋芯褑褨芯谢芯谐褨褔薪芯褩, 械泻芯薪芯屑褨褔薪芯褩 邪泻邪写械屑褨褔薪芯褩 谢褨褌械褉邪褌褍褉懈, 褟泻褍 写芯胁械谢芯褋褟 褔懈褌邪褌懈 蟹邪 褉芯泻懈 薪邪胁褔邪薪薪褟 褨 邪褋锌褨褉邪薪褌褍褉懈, 屑褨泄 屑芯蟹芯泻 胁懈褟胁谢褟褦褌褜褋褟 胁懈褉芯斜懈胁 芯写薪褍 褏芯褉芯褕褍 褉懈褋褍, 蟹邪 褟泻褍 屑芯卸褍 褉邪写褨褌懈: 蟹写邪褌薪褨褋褌褜 褉芯蟹褍屑褨褌懈, 褉芯蟹锌褨蟹薪邪胁邪褌懈 褨 蟹薪褨屑邪褌懈 谢邪锌褕褍 蟹 胁褍褏 胁褨写 褍褋褨褏 褋芯褉褌褨胁 "褎邪褏褨胁褑褨胁", "褌邪泻褋懈褋褌褨胁 褕懈锟斤拷芯泻芯谐芯 锌褉芯褎褨谢褞" 褨 "蟹薪邪褞-胁褋械-褉芯蟹泻邪卸褍-褟泻-屑芯褌懈胁褍胁邪褌懈-泻褉邪褖褍-写芯谢褞-写褨褌械泄-蟹薪褟褌懈-胁褉芯泻懈". 袨褋褜 锌械褉械写褨 屑薪芯褞 褖芯泄薪芯 斜褍谢邪 泻薪懈谐邪, 褟泻邪 薪邪谢械卸懈褌褜 写芯 褔懈褋谢邪 锌褉芯褋褌芯 bullshit'褍. 袦芯卸谢懈胁芯 褑械 褔邪褋 褌邪泻懈泄, 褖芯 锌芯锌褍谢褨蟹屑 胁褋褞写懈, 邪谢械 褑褟 泻薪懈谐邪 写谢褟 屑械薪械 褟泻 褨褋褌芯褉褨褟 蟹 孝褉邪屑锌芯屑 褌邪 袟械谢械薪褋褜泻懈屑. 袧械 胁褋械 褌械, 褖芯 泻褍锌褍褦褌褜褋褟 褕懈褉芯泻芯 褨 屑邪褋芯胁芯 屑邪褦 写谢褟 屑械薪械 芯褋芯斜懈褋褌芯 褏芯褔 褟泻褍褋褜 褑褨薪褍.
笑褟 泻薪懈谐邪 薪械 胁邪褉褌褍褦 屑芯褩褏 谐褉芯褕械泄, 褕泻芯写褍褞 薪邪胁褨褌褜 蟹邪 褌褨, 褖芯 锌褨褕谢懈 薪邪 械谢械泻褌褉芯薪薪懈泄 锌褉懈屑褨褉薪懈泻. 袉 褔邪褋褍 褌褉芯褏懈 褕泻芯写邪, 邪谢械 褖芯 胁卸械 褌褍褌 蟹褉芯斜懈褕?
笑褟 泻薪懈谐邪 薪械 胁邪褉褌褍褦 屑芯褩褏 谐褉芯褕械泄, 褕泻芯写褍褞 薪邪胁褨褌褜 蟹邪 褌褨, 褖芯 锌褨褕谢懈 薪邪 械谢械泻褌褉芯薪薪懈泄 锌褉懈屑褨褉薪懈泻. 袉 褔邪褋褍 褌褉芯褏懈 褕泻芯写邪, 邪谢械 褖芯 胁卸械 褌褍褌 蟹褉芯斜懈褕?
May 17, 2020
M-am tot g芒ndit ce carte a葯 putea s膬 v膬 recomand s膬pt膬m芒na asta, ca s膬 v膬 foloseasc膬. 葮i c芒nd am dat cu ochii de Leb膬da neagr膬 卯n bibliotec膬 am zis: daaa, asta e. Dac膬 nu a葲i citit-o, e o lectur膬 obligatorie. Dac膬 a葲i citit-o, ar fi bine s-o reciti葲i 卯n perioada asta, pentru c膬 sigur nu 葲ine葲i cont 卯n toat膬 nebunia asta de sfaturile lui Taleb. 脦n Leb膬da neagr膬, autorul ne arat膬 cum s膬 facem pentru a evita confuzia dintre g膬l膬gie 葯i informa葲ie, 葲in芒nd 卯n acela葯i timp cont de ignoran葲a noastr膬. Da, om p膬rea noi, oamenii, cele mai inteligente fiin葲e de pe planet膬, dar suntem jalnici atunci c芒nd vine vorba de a face previziuni. Este o carte pe care le-o recomand cu c膬ldur膬 pariorilor, juc膬torilor la burs膬, mai ales celor care n-au 卯n葲eles p芒n膬 acum c膬 informa葲iile pe care nu le au (lebedele negre) sunt cele mai importante, iar deciziile pe care le iau 卯n baza informa葲iilor pe care le de葲in rareori sunt corecte. Felul 卯n care creierul nostru pune toate informa葲iile 卯ntr-o poveste cu sens pentru noi face ca de multe ori s膬 ne 卯n葯el膬m 卯n leg膬tur膬 cu totul. Lectur膬 pl膬cut膬!
March 28, 2023
Interesting how the author growing up in Lebanon, tipping from a peaceful equilibrium into civil war, tells his story of the world disregarding improbable events through oversimplification and overreliance on the bell curve
Trusting bell curve quantitative models is like picking pennies before a steamroller
Fascinating storytelling on a potentially dull narrative in respect to psychological challenges of humans to deal with highly improbable events.
More thoughts to follow 馃Β馃枻馃М
Trusting bell curve quantitative models is like picking pennies before a steamroller
Fascinating storytelling on a potentially dull narrative in respect to psychological challenges of humans to deal with highly improbable events.
More thoughts to follow 馃Β馃枻馃М
March 28, 2017
讴鬲丕亘 賮賵賯鈥� 丕賱毓丕丿賴 亘賵丿.
亘乇乇爻蹖 賳爻亘鬲丕 賲賮氐賱蹖 乇賵 丿乇 賵亘賱丕诏賲 丿乇賲賵乇丿卮 賳賵卮鬲賲:
賴賲蹖賳 賯丿乇 亘诏賲 讴賴 亘乇丕蹖 亘丕乇 丿賵賲 禺賵丕賴賲 禺賵賳丿卮. 賮賯胤 丿乇 賲賵乇丿 鬲乇噩賲賴 亘诏賲 讴賴 亘丕 鬲賵噩賴 亘賴 丕蹖賳 讴賴 賲鬲賳 丕賳诏賱蹖爻蹖 孬賯蹖賱賴 讴丕乇 賯丕亘賱 賯亘賵賱蹖 丕賳噩丕賲 卮丿賴 丕賲丕 賲鬲丕爻賮丕賳賴 亘毓囟蹖 噩丕賴丕 賲鬲乇噩賲 亘乇丕蹖 賵丕跇賴 賴丕蹖蹖 讴賴 賲毓丕丿賱賴丕蹖 禺賵亘 賵 賲毓乇賵賮 丿丕乇賳 丿爻鬲 亘賴 賵丕跇賴 爻丕夭蹖 夭丿賴 蹖丕 丕夭 賵丕跇賴 賴丕蹖蹖 丕爻鬲賮丕丿賴 讴乇丿賴 讴賴 亘乇丕蹖 賲禺丕胤亘 賲賲讴賳賴 丌卮賳丕 賳亘丕卮賳丿. 亘賴 賴乇 丨丕賱. 賳爻禺賴鈥屰� 丕賳诏賱爻蹖卮 乇賵 賴賲 亘丕蹖丿 禺賵賳丿.
亘乇乇爻蹖 賳爻亘鬲丕 賲賮氐賱蹖 乇賵 丿乇 賵亘賱丕诏賲 丿乇賲賵乇丿卮 賳賵卮鬲賲:
賴賲蹖賳 賯丿乇 亘诏賲 讴賴 亘乇丕蹖 亘丕乇 丿賵賲 禺賵丕賴賲 禺賵賳丿卮. 賮賯胤 丿乇 賲賵乇丿 鬲乇噩賲賴 亘诏賲 讴賴 亘丕 鬲賵噩賴 亘賴 丕蹖賳 讴賴 賲鬲賳 丕賳诏賱蹖爻蹖 孬賯蹖賱賴 讴丕乇 賯丕亘賱 賯亘賵賱蹖 丕賳噩丕賲 卮丿賴 丕賲丕 賲鬲丕爻賮丕賳賴 亘毓囟蹖 噩丕賴丕 賲鬲乇噩賲 亘乇丕蹖 賵丕跇賴 賴丕蹖蹖 讴賴 賲毓丕丿賱賴丕蹖 禺賵亘 賵 賲毓乇賵賮 丿丕乇賳 丿爻鬲 亘賴 賵丕跇賴 爻丕夭蹖 夭丿賴 蹖丕 丕夭 賵丕跇賴 賴丕蹖蹖 丕爻鬲賮丕丿賴 讴乇丿賴 讴賴 亘乇丕蹖 賲禺丕胤亘 賲賲讴賳賴 丌卮賳丕 賳亘丕卮賳丿. 亘賴 賴乇 丨丕賱. 賳爻禺賴鈥屰� 丕賳诏賱爻蹖卮 乇賵 賴賲 亘丕蹖丿 禺賵賳丿.
May 21, 2020
亘丕 丕蹖賳讴賴 禺賱丕氐賴 讴鬲丕亘 乇賵 禺賵賳丿賲 賵 亘丕夭 賴賲 趩蹖夭 噩丿蹖丿蹖 亘乇丕賲 賳丿丕卮鬲 丕賲丕 亘賴 賳馗乇賲 蹖丕丿丌賵乇蹖鈥屬囏й� 賲賮蹖丿蹖 丿丕卮鬲 讴賴 亘丕蹖丿 賴賲蹖卮賴 噩賱賵蹖 趩卮賲賲 亘丕卮賴
亘賴 禺丕胤乇 賴賲蹖賳 禺賱丕氐賴 丕蹖 丕夭 亘乇丿丕卮鬲 禺賵丿賲 乇賵 丕夭卮 賲蹖賳賵蹖爻賲.
丌蹖丕 丕賵賳賯丿乇蹖 賲丨卮乇 亘賵丿 讴賴 亘乇賲 讴丕賲賱卮賵 賴賲 亘禺賵賳賲責
賳賴 禺亘 賲诏賴 賲乇囟 丿丕乇賲責 賴賲蹖賳 蹖讴 丕卮丕乇鬲 讴丕賮蹖 亘賵丿
賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴 蹖毓賳蹖 賱夭賵賲丕 趩蹖夭蹖 讴賴 賮讴乇 賲蹖讴賳蹖賲 丕鬲賮丕賯 賳賲蹖賮鬲賴. 趩乇丕責
蹖讴. 丿乇 丿爻鬲乇爻 賳亘賵丿賳 鬲賲丕賲 丕胤賱丕毓丕鬲:
賲丕 賮賯胤 賯爻賲鬲蹖 丕夭 丕胤賱丕毓丕鬲 乇賵 丿丕乇蹖賲 賵 丕诏賴 賮讴乇 讴賳蹖賲 丕蹖賳 賯爻賲鬲 丕夭 丕蹖賳 丕胤賱丕毓丕鬲 丿乇爻鬲賴 趩賳丕賳 賲胤賲卅賳 賲蹖卮蹖賲 讴賴 賲賲讴賳賴 賴賲賴 趩蹖夭 乇賵 倬丕蹖 鬲氐賲蹖賲 賳丕卮蹖 丕夭 丕蹖賳 丕胤賱丕毓丕鬲 亘匕丕乇蹖賲. 賲丕 丕夭 讴賵丿讴蹖 鬲丕 丕賲乇賵夭 賲蹖丿賵賳爻鬲蹖賲 賴賲賴 賯賵賴丕 爻賮蹖丿 賴爻鬲賳丿. 鈥溬呟屫堎嗀池屬呪€�. 賲丕 丕賲乇賵夭 賴夭丕乇 爻丕賱賲賵賳 賴爻鬲. 賲丕 賮乇丿丕 亘賴 賯賵蹖蹖 爻蹖丕賴 亘乇禺賵乇丿 賲蹖讴賳蹖賲 賵 鬲賲丕賲 丕蹖賳 賴夭丕乇丕賳 爻丕賱 夭賴乇 禺賵丕賴丿 卮丿 趩賵賳 鬲賮讴乇 賲丕 丕夭 丕爻丕爻 丕卮鬲亘丕賴 亘賵丿賴. 丕賵賳 鈥溫ж� 賯亘賱 丿丕賳爻鬲賳鈥� 賲乇亘賵胤 賲蹖卮賴 亘賴:
丿賵. 鬲毓氐亘 亘乇 亘丕賵乇賴丕 蹖丕 confirmation bias:
賲丕 亘賴 賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴 亘乇禺賵乇丿 賲蹖讴賳蹖賲. 毓氐亘丕賳蹖 賵 亘乇丌卮賮鬲賴 賲蹖卮蹖賲 趩賵賳 爻禺鬲賴 賯亘賵賱 讴賳蹖賲 鬲賲丕賲 丌賳趩賴 賲蹖丿賵賳爻鬲蹖賲 蹖丕 鬲噩乇亘賴 讴乇丿蹖賲 蹖丕 亘賴賲賵賳 诏賮鬲賴 亘賵丿賳 丕卮鬲亘丕賴 亘賵丿賴. 賲丕 亘乇賲蹖诏乇丿蹖賲 禺賵賳賴 賵 诏賵诏賱 賲蹖讴賳蹖賲 亘賱讴賴 亘賴 賵爻蹖賱賴 亘賴 丿爻鬲 丌賵乇丿賳 丕胤賱丕毓丕鬲 亘蹖卮鬲乇 丕夭 丕蹖賳 丌卮賮鬲诏蹖 乇賴丕 亘卮蹖賲. 丕蹖賳 讴丕乇 禺蹖賱蹖 禺賵亘蹖賴. 丕賲丕 賲丕 丿乇 毓賲蹖賯 鬲乇蹖賳 賱丕蹖賴鈥屬呝堎� 賴賳賵夭 賲鬲毓氐亘 賴爻鬲蹖賲. 倬爻 诏賵诏賱 賲蹖讴賳蹖賲 鈥溫促堌з囏� 賲亘賳蹖 亘乇 爻賮蹖丿 亘賵丿賳 鬲賲丕賲 賯賵賴丕鈥�. 亘毓丿 丕夭 爻丕毓鬲 賴丕 丕爻讴乇賵賱 賵 鬲亘 亘賴 鬲亘 卮丿賳, 丿賱賲賵賳 丌乇丕賲 賲蹖诏蹖乇賴 賵 賮讴乇 賲蹖讴賳蹖賲 賱丕亘丿 丕賵賳 賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴 蹖讴 禺胤丕蹖 丿蹖丿 亘賵丿賴.
賲丕 亘賴 丿賳亘丕賱 趩蹖夭蹖 賲蹖诏乇丿蹖賲 讴賴 賲蹖禺賵丕蹖賲 亘亘蹖賳蹖賲. 賲丕 趩蹖夭蹖 乇賵 賲蹖亘蹖賳蹖賲 讴賴 丿賱賲賵賳 賲蹖禺賵丕丿.
賲丕 賯賵蹖 爻賮蹖丿 乇賵 賲蹖禺賵丕蹖賲 倬爻 賮賯胤 賴賲賵賳 乇賵 爻乇趩 賲蹖讴賳蹖賲 賵 賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴 賲丕蹖 丕爻
爻賴. 禺胤丕蹖 乇賵丕蹖鬲 蹖丕 narrative fallacy:
賲睾夭 賲丕 丨噩賲 禺蹖賱蹖 夭蹖丕丿蹖 亘乇丕蹖 亘賴 蹖丕丿 爻倬乇丿賳 趩蹖夭賴丕 丿丕乇賴 丕賲丕 賲丕 亘賴 丿賱蹖賱 毓噩賱賴 丿乇 鬲讴丕賲賱 丿乇 胤蹖 賲蹖賱蹖賵賳 賴丕 爻丕賱, 丕賲乇賵夭 賮賯胤 賯丕丿乇蹖賲 丕夭 賯爻賲鬲 亘爻蹖丕乇 賲丨丿賵丿 賵 賳丕趩蹖夭蹖 丕夭 賲睾夭賲賵賳 乇賵 丕爻鬲賮丕丿賴 讴賳蹖賲(賲賳馗賵乇鈥� 丿乇氐丿賴丕蹖 賮蹖夭蹖讴丕賱 賳蹖爻鬲 賱夭賵賲丕). 丿賳蹖丕蹖 丕賲乇賵夭 丕賲丕 賲丿丕賲 丿乇 丨丕賱 亘賲亘丕乇丕賳 丕胤賱丕毓丕鬲蹖 賲丕爻鬲. 倬爻 賲睾夭 賲丕 爻賱讴鬲蹖賵 毓賲賱 賲蹖讴賳賴 賵 賮賯胤 趩蹖夭賴丕蹖蹖 乇賵 丿乇 胤賵賱 乇賵夭 賵 卮丕蹖丿 丿乇 胤賵賱 夭賳丿诏蹖 賲丕 丕賳鬲禺丕亘 賲蹖讴賳賴 讴賴 亘賴 賳馗乇卮 賲賴賲 賴爻鬲賳. 丕賵賳賵賯鬲 丕夭 丕賵賳 趩蹖夭賴丕 蹖讴 爻蹖乇 丿丕爻鬲丕賳蹖 亘乇丕蹖 亘賴 禺丕胤乇 爻倬乇丿賳 賲蹖爻丕夭賴. 賵 丕蹖賳噩丕爻鬲 讴賴 賲丕 诏丕賴丕 禺丕胤乇丕鬲 乇賵 亘賴 卮讴賱蹖 丨鬲丕 丕卮鬲亘丕賴 亘賴 蹖丕丿 丌賵乇丿賴 賵 亘賴鈥屫ㄙ� 賵 趩賴鈥屭嗁� 賴賲 賲蹖讴賳蹖賲. 蹖丕 亘乇毓讴爻. 亘蹖 丕蹖賳讴賴 亘賴 賮乇蹖亘蹖 讴賴 丕夭 賲睾夭 賲蹖禺賵乇蹖賲 丌诏丕賴 亘丕卮蹖賲 賵 蹖丕 亘賴 丿賱蹖賱 卮賲丕乇賴 丿賵 亘賴 丿丕賳丕蹖蹖 禺賵丿賲賵賳 賲鬲毓氐亘 亘丕卮蹖賲. 賲丕 賮讴乇 賲蹖讴賳蹖賲 賴賵卮賲賳丿 賴爻鬲蹖賲 賵 賴乇趩賴 讴賴 亘賴 蹖丕丿 賲蹖丕乇蹖賲 賱丕亘丿 賳蹖丕夭 賴爻鬲 趩賵賳 賲丕 丌賱乇丿蹖 倬蹖卮 亘蹖賳蹖 賴丕蹖 賱丕夭賲 乇賵 讴乇丿賴 亘賵丿蹖賲. 睾丕賮賱 丕夭 丕蹖賳讴賴 禺胤丕蹖 卮賲丕乇賴 趩賴丕乇 丿乇 丕賳鬲馗丕乇賲賵賳賴.
趩賴丕乇. 禺胤丕蹖 亘丕夭蹖 蹖丕 lucid fallacy
賲丕 禺賵丿賲賵賳 乇賵 賴賵卮賲賳丿 賲蹖丿賵賳蹖賲. 亘賴 鬲噩乇亘賴 賴丕賲賵賳 賲賮鬲禺乇 賵 賲睾乇賵乇蹖賲. 賲丕 丕夭 丕卮鬲亘丕賴丕鬲 禺賵丿賲賵賳 蹖丕 丿蹖诏乇丕賳 丿乇爻 賲蹖诏蹖乇蹖賲. 亘乇丕蹖 賴乇 賯丿賲 鬲賮讴乇 賵 亘乇賳丕賲賴鈥屫臂屫槽� 賲蹖讴賳蹖賲. 丨鬲丕 丕賵賳賯丿乇 丿丕賳丕 賵 丿賵乇丕賳丿蹖卮 賵 诏賵诏賵賱蹖 賴爻鬲蹖賲 讴賴 賲丨丿賵丿賴 丕蹖 亘乇丕蹖 禺胤乇 丕丨鬲賲丕賱蹖 亘賴 卮讴賱 囟乇蹖亘 丕胤賲蹖賳丕賳 丿乇 賳馗乇 賲蹖诏蹖乇蹖賲. 趩賵賳 賮讴乇 賲蹖讴賳蹖賲 夭賳丿诏蹖 亘丕夭蹖鈥屫й� 賴爻鬲 亘丕 賯賵丕賳蹖賳蹖 爻賮鬲 賵 爻禺鬲 丕夭 倬蹖卮 鬲毓蹖蹖賳 卮丿賴. 賲丕 賯賵丕賳蹖賳 乇賵 賲蹖丿賵賳蹖賲. 賲丕 賯賵丕賳蹖賳 乇賵 乇毓丕蹖鬲 賲蹖讴賳蹖賲. 倬爻 趩乇丕 诏丕賴蹖 亘丕夭蹖 乇賵 賲蹖亘丕夭蹖賲責 卮丕蹖丿 趩賵賳 賮乇丕賲賵卮 賲蹖讴賳蹖賲 讴賴 賴乇诏夭 倬丕蹖丕賳 賴蹖趩 亘丕夭蹖鈥屫й� 賲卮禺氐 賳蹖爻鬲. 卮丕蹖丿 亘賴鬲乇 賲蹖亘賵丿 丿乇 賲丿乇爻賴 賵賯鬲蹖 賲毓賱賲 禺賵丿卮 乇賵 亘賴 賯胤毓丕鬲 賳丕賲爻丕賵蹖 鬲賯爻蹖賲 賲蹖讴乇丿 亘賱讴賴 賲丕 丌賲丕乇 賵 丕丨鬲賲丕賱丕鬲 乇賵 亘賴 禺賵亘蹖 蹖丕丿 亘诏蹖乇蹖賲 鬲賵噩賴 亘蹖卮鬲乇蹖 亘賴 丿乇爻 賲蹖讴乇丿蹖賲. 丕賵賳賵賯鬲 丕賲乇賵夭 賲蹖丿賵賳爻鬲蹖賲 讴賴 賴乇诏夭 賴蹖趩 趩蹖夭 賯胤毓蹖 賳蹖爻鬲. 鬲賳賴丕 趩蹖夭蹖 讴賴 賲蹖鬲賵賳賲 亘賴 卮賲丕 賯賵賱 賯胤毓蹖 亘賵丿賳卮 乇賵 亘丿賲 丕蹖賳賴 讴賴 丕诏賴 蹖讴 爻蹖賱蹖 亘賴 賲賳 亘夭賳蹖丿, 賲賳 賴賲 卮賲丕 乇賵 賲蹖夭賳賲. 亘丕 卮丕鬲 诏丕賳 丕賱亘鬲賴. 賴丕賴丕賴丕 ^_^ 倬爻 丨賵丕爻賲賵賳 亘丕卮賴 讴賴 賲丕 鬲賯乇蹖亘丕 賴蹖趩賵賯鬲 賳賲蹖鬲賵賳蹖賲 乇蹖爻讴 賴丕 乇賵 賲禺氐賵氐丕 丿乇 丕亘毓丕丿 亘夭乇诏 丿乇爻鬲 賵 賯胤毓蹖 丨爻丕亘 讴賳蹖賲. 趩賵賳 亘賴 丿賱蹖賱 卮賲丕乇賴 蹖讴 賲丨丿賵丿賴 丿丕賳卮 賲丕 丕賳丿讴賴 賵 趩蹖夭賴丕蹖蹖 賴爻鬲 讴賴 賲丕 賳賲蹖丿丕賳蹖賲 乇蹖蹖爻. 丕蹖賳 亘賴 賳丕丿丕賳蹖賽 禺賵丿 賲毓鬲乇賮 賵 丌诏丕賴 亘賵丿賳 卮丕蹖丿 丿乇 噩丕蹖蹖 賳丕噩蹖 賲丕 亘丕卮賴. 讴賴 丕賱亘鬲賴 亘丕夭 賴賲 禺蹖賱蹖 乇賵卮 丨爻丕亘 賳讴賳蹖賳 賵 亘乇蹖丿 賵 蹖賴 诏賱鈥屭з堚€屫藏ㄙ堎� 亘禺賵乇蹖賳.
禺亘 丿蹖诏賴 倬丕卮蹖賲 亘乇蹖賲 賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴賲賵賳賵 丿乇 丌睾賵卮 亘诏蹖乇蹖賲 賵 亘丕賴丕卮 讴賲蹖 丨乇賮 亘夭賳蹖賲 賵 賮乇丿丕 亘乇丕卮 丕爻倬丕诏鬲蹖 爻亘夭蹖噩丕鬲 亘倬夭蹖賲
亘賴 禺丕胤乇 賴賲蹖賳 禺賱丕氐賴 丕蹖 丕夭 亘乇丿丕卮鬲 禺賵丿賲 乇賵 丕夭卮 賲蹖賳賵蹖爻賲.
丌蹖丕 丕賵賳賯丿乇蹖 賲丨卮乇 亘賵丿 讴賴 亘乇賲 讴丕賲賱卮賵 賴賲 亘禺賵賳賲責
賳賴 禺亘 賲诏賴 賲乇囟 丿丕乇賲責 賴賲蹖賳 蹖讴 丕卮丕乇鬲 讴丕賮蹖 亘賵丿
賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴 蹖毓賳蹖 賱夭賵賲丕 趩蹖夭蹖 讴賴 賮讴乇 賲蹖讴賳蹖賲 丕鬲賮丕賯 賳賲蹖賮鬲賴. 趩乇丕責
蹖讴. 丿乇 丿爻鬲乇爻 賳亘賵丿賳 鬲賲丕賲 丕胤賱丕毓丕鬲:
賲丕 賮賯胤 賯爻賲鬲蹖 丕夭 丕胤賱丕毓丕鬲 乇賵 丿丕乇蹖賲 賵 丕诏賴 賮讴乇 讴賳蹖賲 丕蹖賳 賯爻賲鬲 丕夭 丕蹖賳 丕胤賱丕毓丕鬲 丿乇爻鬲賴 趩賳丕賳 賲胤賲卅賳 賲蹖卮蹖賲 讴賴 賲賲讴賳賴 賴賲賴 趩蹖夭 乇賵 倬丕蹖 鬲氐賲蹖賲 賳丕卮蹖 丕夭 丕蹖賳 丕胤賱丕毓丕鬲 亘匕丕乇蹖賲. 賲丕 丕夭 讴賵丿讴蹖 鬲丕 丕賲乇賵夭 賲蹖丿賵賳爻鬲蹖賲 賴賲賴 賯賵賴丕 爻賮蹖丿 賴爻鬲賳丿. 鈥溬呟屫堎嗀池屬呪€�. 賲丕 丕賲乇賵夭 賴夭丕乇 爻丕賱賲賵賳 賴爻鬲. 賲丕 賮乇丿丕 亘賴 賯賵蹖蹖 爻蹖丕賴 亘乇禺賵乇丿 賲蹖讴賳蹖賲 賵 鬲賲丕賲 丕蹖賳 賴夭丕乇丕賳 爻丕賱 夭賴乇 禺賵丕賴丿 卮丿 趩賵賳 鬲賮讴乇 賲丕 丕夭 丕爻丕爻 丕卮鬲亘丕賴 亘賵丿賴. 丕賵賳 鈥溫ж� 賯亘賱 丿丕賳爻鬲賳鈥� 賲乇亘賵胤 賲蹖卮賴 亘賴:
丿賵. 鬲毓氐亘 亘乇 亘丕賵乇賴丕 蹖丕 confirmation bias:
賲丕 亘賴 賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴 亘乇禺賵乇丿 賲蹖讴賳蹖賲. 毓氐亘丕賳蹖 賵 亘乇丌卮賮鬲賴 賲蹖卮蹖賲 趩賵賳 爻禺鬲賴 賯亘賵賱 讴賳蹖賲 鬲賲丕賲 丌賳趩賴 賲蹖丿賵賳爻鬲蹖賲 蹖丕 鬲噩乇亘賴 讴乇丿蹖賲 蹖丕 亘賴賲賵賳 诏賮鬲賴 亘賵丿賳 丕卮鬲亘丕賴 亘賵丿賴. 賲丕 亘乇賲蹖诏乇丿蹖賲 禺賵賳賴 賵 诏賵诏賱 賲蹖讴賳蹖賲 亘賱讴賴 亘賴 賵爻蹖賱賴 亘賴 丿爻鬲 丌賵乇丿賳 丕胤賱丕毓丕鬲 亘蹖卮鬲乇 丕夭 丕蹖賳 丌卮賮鬲诏蹖 乇賴丕 亘卮蹖賲. 丕蹖賳 讴丕乇 禺蹖賱蹖 禺賵亘蹖賴. 丕賲丕 賲丕 丿乇 毓賲蹖賯 鬲乇蹖賳 賱丕蹖賴鈥屬呝堎� 賴賳賵夭 賲鬲毓氐亘 賴爻鬲蹖賲. 倬爻 诏賵诏賱 賲蹖讴賳蹖賲 鈥溫促堌з囏� 賲亘賳蹖 亘乇 爻賮蹖丿 亘賵丿賳 鬲賲丕賲 賯賵賴丕鈥�. 亘毓丿 丕夭 爻丕毓鬲 賴丕 丕爻讴乇賵賱 賵 鬲亘 亘賴 鬲亘 卮丿賳, 丿賱賲賵賳 丌乇丕賲 賲蹖诏蹖乇賴 賵 賮讴乇 賲蹖讴賳蹖賲 賱丕亘丿 丕賵賳 賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴 蹖讴 禺胤丕蹖 丿蹖丿 亘賵丿賴.
賲丕 亘賴 丿賳亘丕賱 趩蹖夭蹖 賲蹖诏乇丿蹖賲 讴賴 賲蹖禺賵丕蹖賲 亘亘蹖賳蹖賲. 賲丕 趩蹖夭蹖 乇賵 賲蹖亘蹖賳蹖賲 讴賴 丿賱賲賵賳 賲蹖禺賵丕丿.
賲丕 賯賵蹖 爻賮蹖丿 乇賵 賲蹖禺賵丕蹖賲 倬爻 賮賯胤 賴賲賵賳 乇賵 爻乇趩 賲蹖讴賳蹖賲 賵 賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴 賲丕蹖 丕爻
爻賴. 禺胤丕蹖 乇賵丕蹖鬲 蹖丕 narrative fallacy:
賲睾夭 賲丕 丨噩賲 禺蹖賱蹖 夭蹖丕丿蹖 亘乇丕蹖 亘賴 蹖丕丿 爻倬乇丿賳 趩蹖夭賴丕 丿丕乇賴 丕賲丕 賲丕 亘賴 丿賱蹖賱 毓噩賱賴 丿乇 鬲讴丕賲賱 丿乇 胤蹖 賲蹖賱蹖賵賳 賴丕 爻丕賱, 丕賲乇賵夭 賮賯胤 賯丕丿乇蹖賲 丕夭 賯爻賲鬲 亘爻蹖丕乇 賲丨丿賵丿 賵 賳丕趩蹖夭蹖 丕夭 賲睾夭賲賵賳 乇賵 丕爻鬲賮丕丿賴 讴賳蹖賲(賲賳馗賵乇鈥� 丿乇氐丿賴丕蹖 賮蹖夭蹖讴丕賱 賳蹖爻鬲 賱夭賵賲丕). 丿賳蹖丕蹖 丕賲乇賵夭 丕賲丕 賲丿丕賲 丿乇 丨丕賱 亘賲亘丕乇丕賳 丕胤賱丕毓丕鬲蹖 賲丕爻鬲. 倬爻 賲睾夭 賲丕 爻賱讴鬲蹖賵 毓賲賱 賲蹖讴賳賴 賵 賮賯胤 趩蹖夭賴丕蹖蹖 乇賵 丿乇 胤賵賱 乇賵夭 賵 卮丕蹖丿 丿乇 胤賵賱 夭賳丿诏蹖 賲丕 丕賳鬲禺丕亘 賲蹖讴賳賴 讴賴 亘賴 賳馗乇卮 賲賴賲 賴爻鬲賳. 丕賵賳賵賯鬲 丕夭 丕賵賳 趩蹖夭賴丕 蹖讴 爻蹖乇 丿丕爻鬲丕賳蹖 亘乇丕蹖 亘賴 禺丕胤乇 爻倬乇丿賳 賲蹖爻丕夭賴. 賵 丕蹖賳噩丕爻鬲 讴賴 賲丕 诏丕賴丕 禺丕胤乇丕鬲 乇賵 亘賴 卮讴賱蹖 丨鬲丕 丕卮鬲亘丕賴 亘賴 蹖丕丿 丌賵乇丿賴 賵 亘賴鈥屫ㄙ� 賵 趩賴鈥屭嗁� 賴賲 賲蹖讴賳蹖賲. 蹖丕 亘乇毓讴爻. 亘蹖 丕蹖賳讴賴 亘賴 賮乇蹖亘蹖 讴賴 丕夭 賲睾夭 賲蹖禺賵乇蹖賲 丌诏丕賴 亘丕卮蹖賲 賵 蹖丕 亘賴 丿賱蹖賱 卮賲丕乇賴 丿賵 亘賴 丿丕賳丕蹖蹖 禺賵丿賲賵賳 賲鬲毓氐亘 亘丕卮蹖賲. 賲丕 賮讴乇 賲蹖讴賳蹖賲 賴賵卮賲賳丿 賴爻鬲蹖賲 賵 賴乇趩賴 讴賴 亘賴 蹖丕丿 賲蹖丕乇蹖賲 賱丕亘丿 賳蹖丕夭 賴爻鬲 趩賵賳 賲丕 丌賱乇丿蹖 倬蹖卮 亘蹖賳蹖 賴丕蹖 賱丕夭賲 乇賵 讴乇丿賴 亘賵丿蹖賲. 睾丕賮賱 丕夭 丕蹖賳讴賴 禺胤丕蹖 卮賲丕乇賴 趩賴丕乇 丿乇 丕賳鬲馗丕乇賲賵賳賴.
趩賴丕乇. 禺胤丕蹖 亘丕夭蹖 蹖丕 lucid fallacy
賲丕 禺賵丿賲賵賳 乇賵 賴賵卮賲賳丿 賲蹖丿賵賳蹖賲. 亘賴 鬲噩乇亘賴 賴丕賲賵賳 賲賮鬲禺乇 賵 賲睾乇賵乇蹖賲. 賲丕 丕夭 丕卮鬲亘丕賴丕鬲 禺賵丿賲賵賳 蹖丕 丿蹖诏乇丕賳 丿乇爻 賲蹖诏蹖乇蹖賲. 亘乇丕蹖 賴乇 賯丿賲 鬲賮讴乇 賵 亘乇賳丕賲賴鈥屫臂屫槽� 賲蹖讴賳蹖賲. 丨鬲丕 丕賵賳賯丿乇 丿丕賳丕 賵 丿賵乇丕賳丿蹖卮 賵 诏賵诏賵賱蹖 賴爻鬲蹖賲 讴賴 賲丨丿賵丿賴 丕蹖 亘乇丕蹖 禺胤乇 丕丨鬲賲丕賱蹖 亘賴 卮讴賱 囟乇蹖亘 丕胤賲蹖賳丕賳 丿乇 賳馗乇 賲蹖诏蹖乇蹖賲. 趩賵賳 賮讴乇 賲蹖讴賳蹖賲 夭賳丿诏蹖 亘丕夭蹖鈥屫й� 賴爻鬲 亘丕 賯賵丕賳蹖賳蹖 爻賮鬲 賵 爻禺鬲 丕夭 倬蹖卮 鬲毓蹖蹖賳 卮丿賴. 賲丕 賯賵丕賳蹖賳 乇賵 賲蹖丿賵賳蹖賲. 賲丕 賯賵丕賳蹖賳 乇賵 乇毓丕蹖鬲 賲蹖讴賳蹖賲. 倬爻 趩乇丕 诏丕賴蹖 亘丕夭蹖 乇賵 賲蹖亘丕夭蹖賲責 卮丕蹖丿 趩賵賳 賮乇丕賲賵卮 賲蹖讴賳蹖賲 讴賴 賴乇诏夭 倬丕蹖丕賳 賴蹖趩 亘丕夭蹖鈥屫й� 賲卮禺氐 賳蹖爻鬲. 卮丕蹖丿 亘賴鬲乇 賲蹖亘賵丿 丿乇 賲丿乇爻賴 賵賯鬲蹖 賲毓賱賲 禺賵丿卮 乇賵 亘賴 賯胤毓丕鬲 賳丕賲爻丕賵蹖 鬲賯爻蹖賲 賲蹖讴乇丿 亘賱讴賴 賲丕 丌賲丕乇 賵 丕丨鬲賲丕賱丕鬲 乇賵 亘賴 禺賵亘蹖 蹖丕丿 亘诏蹖乇蹖賲 鬲賵噩賴 亘蹖卮鬲乇蹖 亘賴 丿乇爻 賲蹖讴乇丿蹖賲. 丕賵賳賵賯鬲 丕賲乇賵夭 賲蹖丿賵賳爻鬲蹖賲 讴賴 賴乇诏夭 賴蹖趩 趩蹖夭 賯胤毓蹖 賳蹖爻鬲. 鬲賳賴丕 趩蹖夭蹖 讴賴 賲蹖鬲賵賳賲 亘賴 卮賲丕 賯賵賱 賯胤毓蹖 亘賵丿賳卮 乇賵 亘丿賲 丕蹖賳賴 讴賴 丕诏賴 蹖讴 爻蹖賱蹖 亘賴 賲賳 亘夭賳蹖丿, 賲賳 賴賲 卮賲丕 乇賵 賲蹖夭賳賲. 亘丕 卮丕鬲 诏丕賳 丕賱亘鬲賴. 賴丕賴丕賴丕 ^_^ 倬爻 丨賵丕爻賲賵賳 亘丕卮賴 讴賴 賲丕 鬲賯乇蹖亘丕 賴蹖趩賵賯鬲 賳賲蹖鬲賵賳蹖賲 乇蹖爻讴 賴丕 乇賵 賲禺氐賵氐丕 丿乇 丕亘毓丕丿 亘夭乇诏 丿乇爻鬲 賵 賯胤毓蹖 丨爻丕亘 讴賳蹖賲. 趩賵賳 亘賴 丿賱蹖賱 卮賲丕乇賴 蹖讴 賲丨丿賵丿賴 丿丕賳卮 賲丕 丕賳丿讴賴 賵 趩蹖夭賴丕蹖蹖 賴爻鬲 讴賴 賲丕 賳賲蹖丿丕賳蹖賲 乇蹖蹖爻. 丕蹖賳 亘賴 賳丕丿丕賳蹖賽 禺賵丿 賲毓鬲乇賮 賵 丌诏丕賴 亘賵丿賳 卮丕蹖丿 丿乇 噩丕蹖蹖 賳丕噩蹖 賲丕 亘丕卮賴. 讴賴 丕賱亘鬲賴 亘丕夭 賴賲 禺蹖賱蹖 乇賵卮 丨爻丕亘 賳讴賳蹖賳 賵 亘乇蹖丿 賵 蹖賴 诏賱鈥屭з堚€屫藏ㄙ堎� 亘禺賵乇蹖賳.
禺亘 丿蹖诏賴 倬丕卮蹖賲 亘乇蹖賲 賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴賲賵賳賵 丿乇 丌睾賵卮 亘诏蹖乇蹖賲 賵 亘丕賴丕卮 讴賲蹖 丨乇賮 亘夭賳蹖賲 賵 賮乇丿丕 亘乇丕卮 丕爻倬丕诏鬲蹖 爻亘夭蹖噩丕鬲 亘倬夭蹖賲
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
August 14, 2017
倬乇賮爻賵乇 賳爻蹖賲 胤丕賱亘 毓賱丕賵賴 亘乇 賮毓丕賱蹖鬲 賴丕蹖 倬跇賵賴卮蹖 賵 毓賱賲蹖 丿乇 夭賲蹖賳賴 讴爻亘 賵 讴丕乇 賴賲 賮毓丕賱 亘賵丿賴 丕賲丕 丕賵 乇丕 亘蹖卮鬲乇 亘賴 禺丕胤乇 讴丕乇賴丕蹖卮 丿乇 丨賵夭賴 蹖 丕丨鬲賲丕賱丕鬲 賵 毓丿賲 賯胤毓蹖鬲 賲蹖卮賳丕爻賳丿. 賲賮賴賵賲 賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴 丕蹖賳 丕爻鬲 讴賴 賲乇丿賲 乇丕 賲噩亘賵乇 賲蹖爻丕夭丿 丿乇亘丕乇賴 蹖 賳丕卮賳丕禺鬲賴 賴丕 賵 賯丿乇鬲 丌賳賴丕 鬲丕賲賱 讴賳賳丿. 鬲丕賲賱 亘賴 賲毓賳丕蹖 賴丕賱賵 賳亘賵丿賳 賳賴 卮讴 诏乇丕蹖蹖 丕賮乇丕胤蹖 賵 丕賳賮毓丕賱.
賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴 爻賴 賵蹖跇诏蹖 丿丕乇丿 睾蹖乇 賲賳鬲馗乇賴 丕爻鬲.倬蹖丕賲丿卮 爻賳诏蹖賳 丕爻鬲. 倬爻 丕夭 丕賳讴賴 丕鬲賮丕賯 丕賮鬲丕丿 賮讴乇 賲蹖讴賳蹖賲 賯丕亘賱 倬蹖卮 亘蹖賳蹖 亘賵丿 (賵賱蹖 賯丕亘賱 倬蹖卮 亘蹖賳蹖 賳蹖爻鬲).
賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴 賴賲賴 蹖 乇賵蹖丿丕丿賴丕蹖 噩賴丕賳賲丕賳 乇丕, 丕夭 丕賳丿蹖卮賴 賴丕 賵 丕丿蹖丕賳 诏乇賮鬲賴 鬲丕 乇賵蹖丿丕丿賴丕蹖 鬲丕乇蹖禺蹖 賵 噩賳亘賴 賴丕蹖 夭賳丿诏蹖 卮禺氐蹖 禺賵丿賲丕賳 乇丕 鬲賵噩蹖賴 賲蹖讴賳賳丿.
丕蹖賳 讴鬲丕亘 乇賵 丕賳賯丿乇 丿賵爻鬲 丿丕卮鬲賲 讴賴 丿賵 亘丕乇 禺賵賳丿賲卮. 蹖賴 噩丕賴丕蹖蹖 丌丿賲賵 卮诏賮鬲 夭丿賴 賲蹖讴賳賴
賯爻賲鬲蹖 丕夭 讴鬲丕亘:
賲丕乇讴賵爻 爻蹖爻乇賵, 禺胤蹖亘, 爻禺賳鈥屫池必�, 賲鬲賮讴乇 賵爻蹖丕爻鬲 賲丿丕乇 乇賵丕賯蹖 乇賵賲蹖 丕蹖賳 丿丕爻鬲丕賳 乇丕 诏賮鬲: 亘賴 蹖讴 賳賮乇 亘蹖鈥屫屬� 讴賴 亘賴 禺丿丕蹖丕賳 亘丕賵乇 賳丿丕卮鬲 丕賱賵丕丨蹖 賳卮丕賳 丿丕丿賳丿 讴賴 鬲氐賵蹖乇 賳蹖丕蹖卮 诏乇丕賳蹖 亘乇 丌賳 賳賯卮 亘爻鬲賴 亘賵丿 讴賴 亘丕 賳蹖丕蹖卮 丕夭 丨丕丿孬賴 蹖 讴卮鬲蹖 噩丕賳 亘賴 丿乇 亘乇丿賴 亘賵丿賳丿. 丕丿毓丕蹖 賯囟蹖賴 丕蹖賳 亘賵丿 讴賴 賳蹖丕蹖卮 卮賲丕 乇丕 丕夭 睾乇賯 卮丿賳 賳噩丕鬲 賲蹖丿賴丿. 卮禺氐 亘蹖 丿蹖賳 倬乇爻蹖丿: 鬲賲孬丕賱 讴爻丕賳蹖 讴賴 賳蹖丕蹖卮 讴乇丿賳丿 賵 睾乇賯 卮丿賳丿 讴賵責
賲蹖鬲賵丕賳 賲卮丕賴丿賴鈥屭� 爻乇爻乇蹖 乇丕 賮乇蹖賮鬲 鬲丕 賲毓噩夭賴 乇丕 亘丕賵乇 讴賳丿.
賯賵蹖 爻蹖丕賴 爻賴 賵蹖跇诏蹖 丿丕乇丿 睾蹖乇 賲賳鬲馗乇賴 丕爻鬲.倬蹖丕賲丿卮 爻賳诏蹖賳 丕爻鬲. 倬爻 丕夭 丕賳讴賴 丕鬲賮丕賯 丕賮鬲丕丿 賮讴乇 賲蹖讴賳蹖賲 賯丕亘賱 倬蹖卮 亘蹖賳蹖 亘賵丿 (賵賱蹖 賯丕亘賱 倬蹖卮 亘蹖賳蹖 賳蹖爻鬲).
賯賵賴丕蹖 爻蹖丕賴 賴賲賴 蹖 乇賵蹖丿丕丿賴丕蹖 噩賴丕賳賲丕賳 乇丕, 丕夭 丕賳丿蹖卮賴 賴丕 賵 丕丿蹖丕賳 诏乇賮鬲賴 鬲丕 乇賵蹖丿丕丿賴丕蹖 鬲丕乇蹖禺蹖 賵 噩賳亘賴 賴丕蹖 夭賳丿诏蹖 卮禺氐蹖 禺賵丿賲丕賳 乇丕 鬲賵噩蹖賴 賲蹖讴賳賳丿.
丕蹖賳 讴鬲丕亘 乇賵 丕賳賯丿乇 丿賵爻鬲 丿丕卮鬲賲 讴賴 丿賵 亘丕乇 禺賵賳丿賲卮. 蹖賴 噩丕賴丕蹖蹖 丌丿賲賵 卮诏賮鬲 夭丿賴 賲蹖讴賳賴
賯爻賲鬲蹖 丕夭 讴鬲丕亘:
賲丕乇讴賵爻 爻蹖爻乇賵, 禺胤蹖亘, 爻禺賳鈥屫池必�, 賲鬲賮讴乇 賵爻蹖丕爻鬲 賲丿丕乇 乇賵丕賯蹖 乇賵賲蹖 丕蹖賳 丿丕爻鬲丕賳 乇丕 诏賮鬲: 亘賴 蹖讴 賳賮乇 亘蹖鈥屫屬� 讴賴 亘賴 禺丿丕蹖丕賳 亘丕賵乇 賳丿丕卮鬲 丕賱賵丕丨蹖 賳卮丕賳 丿丕丿賳丿 讴賴 鬲氐賵蹖乇 賳蹖丕蹖卮 诏乇丕賳蹖 亘乇 丌賳 賳賯卮 亘爻鬲賴 亘賵丿 讴賴 亘丕 賳蹖丕蹖卮 丕夭 丨丕丿孬賴 蹖 讴卮鬲蹖 噩丕賳 亘賴 丿乇 亘乇丿賴 亘賵丿賳丿. 丕丿毓丕蹖 賯囟蹖賴 丕蹖賳 亘賵丿 讴賴 賳蹖丕蹖卮 卮賲丕 乇丕 丕夭 睾乇賯 卮丿賳 賳噩丕鬲 賲蹖丿賴丿. 卮禺氐 亘蹖 丿蹖賳 倬乇爻蹖丿: 鬲賲孬丕賱 讴爻丕賳蹖 讴賴 賳蹖丕蹖卮 讴乇丿賳丿 賵 睾乇賯 卮丿賳丿 讴賵責
賲蹖鬲賵丕賳 賲卮丕賴丿賴鈥屭� 爻乇爻乇蹖 乇丕 賮乇蹖賮鬲 鬲丕 賲毓噩夭賴 乇丕 亘丕賵乇 讴賳丿.
February 17, 2013
Wall-banger at page 64. This might not be the final rating. I entertain the possibility of picking this up again, but at the moment I cannot bear the thought. The author is an annoying schmuck and that overshadows the concepts, which are quite interesting. You want to learn something useful within the same genre, pick up "Thinking, fast and slow" by Daniel Kahneman instead.
March 27, 2009
Okay, let's see if I got it straight...
An anti-academic academic weaves a non-narrative narrative about predicting the unpredictable into the theory that rigid theories are bad.
Oh, and count on things you can't conceive of happening happening.
Something like that.
Taleb's observations on the expectations and biases we hold, especially when estimating risk or uncertainty, are pretty dead on.
His key practical point is about the need for a NON-parametric look at any situation in which low-probability events can carry a high-impact. He's almost certainly right that we over-apply the "bell curve" and other normalized frequency distributions, with the consequence of underestimating the probability of very rare events.
But he's kind of a jerk about it.
If you don't mind that kind of thing (I don't, really), then this is a pretty good read. If you've thought along these lines before, though, don't expect to be startled. There are no magic recipes for success in Taleb's "Extremistan" here, just some common sense principles that you can pretty much derive from the first 50 pages of the book.
My only other complaint--and it's not one I can really spell out with any confidence--is this: I came away with this diffuse sense of overconfidence from Taleb...that he believes his metaphors and conjectures, etc. apply in more instances than they actually do.
All told, it's a good book, and if I could force it on MBA graduates, I would. I'd just package it with a single grain of salt.
An anti-academic academic weaves a non-narrative narrative about predicting the unpredictable into the theory that rigid theories are bad.
Oh, and count on things you can't conceive of happening happening.
Something like that.
Taleb's observations on the expectations and biases we hold, especially when estimating risk or uncertainty, are pretty dead on.
His key practical point is about the need for a NON-parametric look at any situation in which low-probability events can carry a high-impact. He's almost certainly right that we over-apply the "bell curve" and other normalized frequency distributions, with the consequence of underestimating the probability of very rare events.
But he's kind of a jerk about it.
If you don't mind that kind of thing (I don't, really), then this is a pretty good read. If you've thought along these lines before, though, don't expect to be startled. There are no magic recipes for success in Taleb's "Extremistan" here, just some common sense principles that you can pretty much derive from the first 50 pages of the book.
My only other complaint--and it's not one I can really spell out with any confidence--is this: I came away with this diffuse sense of overconfidence from Taleb...that he believes his metaphors and conjectures, etc. apply in more instances than they actually do.
All told, it's a good book, and if I could force it on MBA graduates, I would. I'd just package it with a single grain of salt.
December 27, 2012
This book is a weird mix of novel ideas, bragging, and pseudo-science.
Taleb makes a strong case for his theory of black swans. It's an interesting and valuable theory but it's also one that could be communicated in a short conversation and does not need a whole book to contain it.
Taleb fills the rest of the pages by bragging about his own success and ridiculing established philosophers, economists, and anyone else he can think of. I'm not in any position to judge his opinions of these people, but I know that he really drops the ball with his math, which is amateur at best and misleading at its worst. For example, on page 235 of the hardcover edition he writes: "Take a random sample of any two people in the U.S. population who jointly earn $1 million per annum ... it would be $50,000 and $950,000" This is used to illustrate income inequality in the U.S., but really the only reason it's true is because $50,000 is a common annual income. If he set his total to $2 million, or $100 million, his point would seem even more significant. I stopped reading this book shortly after that page.
Taleb makes a strong case for his theory of black swans. It's an interesting and valuable theory but it's also one that could be communicated in a short conversation and does not need a whole book to contain it.
Taleb fills the rest of the pages by bragging about his own success and ridiculing established philosophers, economists, and anyone else he can think of. I'm not in any position to judge his opinions of these people, but I know that he really drops the ball with his math, which is amateur at best and misleading at its worst. For example, on page 235 of the hardcover edition he writes: "Take a random sample of any two people in the U.S. population who jointly earn $1 million per annum ... it would be $50,000 and $950,000" This is used to illustrate income inequality in the U.S., but really the only reason it's true is because $50,000 is a common annual income. If he set his total to $2 million, or $100 million, his point would seem even more significant. I stopped reading this book shortly after that page.
May 26, 2023
賰丕賳賵丕 賷賯賵賱賵賳 兀賳 賰賱 丕賱亘噩毓 賮賷 丕賱毓丕賱賲 兀亘賷囟 丨鬲賷 鬲賮丕噩兀賵丕 亘亘噩毓 兀爻賵丿 賮賰丕賳 丨丿孬 睾賷乇 賲鬲賵賯毓 賵兀氐亘丨鬲 賴匕賴 賳馗乇賷丞 丕賱亘噩毓賴 丕賱爻賵丿丕亍 賴賷 賰賱 丨丿孬 睾賷乇 賲鬲賵賯毓 賷丨丿孬 賱賳丕
丨丿孬 賱丕 賷賲賰賳 兀賳 鬲鬲禺賷賱賴 賷氐丿賲賰 賵鬲鬲爻兀賱 賰賷賮 賵賱賲丕匕丕 賵賱賲鬲賷 .. 鬲兀孬賷乇賴 卮丿賷丿 賵亘毓丿 鬲賱賯賷 丕賱氐丿賲丞 賳噩丿 丕賱鬲亘乇賷乇丕鬲 賱丨丿賵孬賴
賰鬲丕亘 賲禺賷賮 賱丕賳賴 毓賳 兀賰鬲乇 賲丕 賷禺賷賮 丕賱賳賮爻 丕賱亘卮乇賷丞 賵賴賵 丕賱兀丨丿丕孬 睾賷乇 丕賱賲鬲賵賯毓賴 賰賷賮 賳鬲賱賯丕賴丕 賵賳鬲毓丕賲賱 賲毓賴丕
賮賰賲 賲賳 亘噩毓賴 爻賵丿丕亍 胤丕乇丿鬲賳丕 賮賷 賴匕賴 丕賱丨賷丕丞
丨丿孬 賱丕 賷賲賰賳 兀賳 鬲鬲禺賷賱賴 賷氐丿賲賰 賵鬲鬲爻兀賱 賰賷賮 賵賱賲丕匕丕 賵賱賲鬲賷 .. 鬲兀孬賷乇賴 卮丿賷丿 賵亘毓丿 鬲賱賯賷 丕賱氐丿賲丞 賳噩丿 丕賱鬲亘乇賷乇丕鬲 賱丨丿賵孬賴
賰鬲丕亘 賲禺賷賮 賱丕賳賴 毓賳 兀賰鬲乇 賲丕 賷禺賷賮 丕賱賳賮爻 丕賱亘卮乇賷丞 賵賴賵 丕賱兀丨丿丕孬 睾賷乇 丕賱賲鬲賵賯毓賴 賰賷賮 賳鬲賱賯丕賴丕 賵賳鬲毓丕賲賱 賲毓賴丕
賮賰賲 賲賳 亘噩毓賴 爻賵丿丕亍 胤丕乇丿鬲賳丕 賮賷 賴匕賴 丕賱丨賷丕丞
December 29, 2024
"As we travel more on this planet epidemics will be more acute--we will have a germ population dominated by a few numbers and the successful killer will spread vastly more effectively".
"September 11th was a black swan, this [Covid19] is a white swan"*.
I'm not sure I agree with Nassim. The Covid19 is globally massive, was predictable by some and, surely, "darker than Vantablack".
Maybe for some it was improbable (I mean, for those who insisted "it's just a flu on steroids", or those against lockdowns or "travel bans"). [Yes, some acted as if it "didn't exist"].
It really depends on which side of the "fence" you're at: victim or agent/perpetrator (if the virus was a "planned thing"**). If there was a plan, those who "did"*** it, knew about the odds. The millions of victims (both the dead and the infected) didn't and weren't prepared.
But even if the coronavirus spread was the result of an accident (which might have occurred in a Wuhan lab), there's still an element of prediction...and criminality, because the virus was not fully contained; thus, let loose. Plus, information was blocked.
馃惣 馃惣 馃惣
Now, back to the book. One might think, once upon a time everybody believed swans were all white. Until Australia was discovered. Then that belief was falsified.
According to Nassim a Black Swan event has 3 characteristics. (1) It's an outlier; a rare event. (2) It carries extreme impact. (3) Its explanation occurs only after the fact, you may call it "retrospective predictability".
The author makes the case for this thesis: small number of Black Swans can explain almost everything in the world. I have my doubts, though.
He also suggests that increasing effects of Black Swans in our recent time is due to increasing complexity. Maybe.
He gives plenty of examples (some from his own experience as a "quant" and a financial trader) of faulty definitions of "risk" in finance; ...and astrology. Because they leave aside Black Swans. So he wonders, "why do we keep focusing on pennies instead of dollars, why, on minutiae instead of general large events?" [I even heard him once speaking about "extreme events" and telling the audience: "try to avoid your psychology professor and you'll live longer"]. 馃え馃え
"Unread books are antilibrary" (be it the Umberto Eco's, a very large one or any other). Black Swans come from our misrepresentations on the role (likelihood) of surprise, ..and unread books. An antischolar is a skeptical empiricist, as Nassim likes to think of himself.
How the Black Swan keeps hiding from us? Because we are fooled by our emotions and other errors (the confirmation error, namely). Even knowledge derived from games is "lethal".
Nassim's analysis of some of the errors the human mind makes, is pertinent. Like, many people do confuse "almost all terrorists are Moslems" for "almost all Moslems are terrorists". The consequence is an overestimation of 50,000 times. Unfair, really.
And still, I am wondering, there are other birds ...and animals, even extinct ones. And colors.
Nassim, I would challenge you to write another series called "Certo", this time around. On the first volume you would focus on Retroactive Epistemology apropos the coronavirus. (As if implementing a sort of variation of the Melting Ice Cube experiment you describe in your book). Who's accountable for the spread of Covid19?? You should focus your epistemological machinery on finding the culprit. Not for money-making purposes. Rather to pursue Truth.
There are minds in the West who think there's a panda bear, invisible thus far, doing terrible things. You should title your first volume of the new series "The Red Panda: the Impact of the Highly Probable".
No insider trading allowed.
馃惣 (not of this color)
Yes, I forgot about the bat.
*
**Just a reminder to the naive mind: China has a Biological Warfare Program.
***
UPDATE
UPDATE
I've been wondering about the "Bitcoin crash". Is it highly probable? Or...? I think it would be very bad for Elon Musk. He just bought a $1,5 Billion stake in Bitcoin.
UPDATE
This is interesting, Bitcoin as a Black Swan. And now Nassim? 馃
UPDATE
Bitcoin is "nada".
UPDATE
What is "bird flu" for Nassim?
28th December 2024
(AI-generated image)
Just pondering...
"September 11th was a black swan, this [Covid19] is a white swan"*.
I'm not sure I agree with Nassim. The Covid19 is globally massive, was predictable by some and, surely, "darker than Vantablack".
"Frustration that the pandemic we are living through was predictable and preventable,...鈥�. Dominic Jermey of the Zoological Society of London
Maybe for some it was improbable (I mean, for those who insisted "it's just a flu on steroids", or those against lockdowns or "travel bans"). [Yes, some acted as if it "didn't exist"].
It really depends on which side of the "fence" you're at: victim or agent/perpetrator (if the virus was a "planned thing"**). If there was a plan, those who "did"*** it, knew about the odds. The millions of victims (both the dead and the infected) didn't and weren't prepared.
But even if the coronavirus spread was the result of an accident (which might have occurred in a Wuhan lab), there's still an element of prediction...and criminality, because the virus was not fully contained; thus, let loose. Plus, information was blocked.
馃惣 馃惣 馃惣
Now, back to the book. One might think, once upon a time everybody believed swans were all white. Until Australia was discovered. Then that belief was falsified.
According to Nassim a Black Swan event has 3 characteristics. (1) It's an outlier; a rare event. (2) It carries extreme impact. (3) Its explanation occurs only after the fact, you may call it "retrospective predictability".
The author makes the case for this thesis: small number of Black Swans can explain almost everything in the world. I have my doubts, though.
He also suggests that increasing effects of Black Swans in our recent time is due to increasing complexity. Maybe.
He gives plenty of examples (some from his own experience as a "quant" and a financial trader) of faulty definitions of "risk" in finance; ...and astrology. Because they leave aside Black Swans. So he wonders, "why do we keep focusing on pennies instead of dollars, why, on minutiae instead of general large events?" [I even heard him once speaking about "extreme events" and telling the audience: "try to avoid your psychology professor and you'll live longer"]. 馃え馃え
"Unread books are antilibrary" (be it the Umberto Eco's, a very large one or any other). Black Swans come from our misrepresentations on the role (likelihood) of surprise, ..and unread books. An antischolar is a skeptical empiricist, as Nassim likes to think of himself.
How the Black Swan keeps hiding from us? Because we are fooled by our emotions and other errors (the confirmation error, namely). Even knowledge derived from games is "lethal".
Nassim's analysis of some of the errors the human mind makes, is pertinent. Like, many people do confuse "almost all terrorists are Moslems" for "almost all Moslems are terrorists". The consequence is an overestimation of 50,000 times. Unfair, really.
And still, I am wondering, there are other birds ...and animals, even extinct ones. And colors.
Nassim, I would challenge you to write another series called "Certo", this time around. On the first volume you would focus on Retroactive Epistemology apropos the coronavirus. (As if implementing a sort of variation of the Melting Ice Cube experiment you describe in your book). Who's accountable for the spread of Covid19?? You should focus your epistemological machinery on finding the culprit. Not for money-making purposes. Rather to pursue Truth.
There are minds in the West who think there's a panda bear, invisible thus far, doing terrible things. You should title your first volume of the new series "The Red Panda: the Impact of the Highly Probable".
No insider trading allowed.
馃惣 (not of this color)
Yes, I forgot about the bat.
*
**Just a reminder to the naive mind: China has a Biological Warfare Program.
***
UPDATE
UPDATE
I've been wondering about the "Bitcoin crash". Is it highly probable? Or...? I think it would be very bad for Elon Musk. He just bought a $1,5 Billion stake in Bitcoin.
UPDATE
This is interesting, Bitcoin as a Black Swan. And now Nassim? 馃
UPDATE
Bitcoin is "nada".
UPDATE
What is "bird flu" for Nassim?
28th December 2024
(AI-generated image)
Just pondering...
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