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How to Read Numbers: A Guide to Statistics in the News
Every day, most of us will read or watch something in the news that is based on statistics in some way. Sometimes it'll be obvious - 'X people develop cancer every year' - and sometimes less obvious - 'How smartphones destroyed a generation'. Statistics are an immensely powerful tool for understanding the world, but in the wrong hands they can be dangerous.
Introducing you to the common mistakes that journalists make and the tricks they sometimes deploy, HOW TO READ NUMBERS is a vital guide that will help you understand when and how to trust the numbers in the news - and, just as importantly, when not to.
Introducing you to the common mistakes that journalists make and the tricks they sometimes deploy, HOW TO READ NUMBERS is a vital guide that will help you understand when and how to trust the numbers in the news - and, just as importantly, when not to.
208 pages, Paperback
First published January 1, 2021
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1,257 people want to read
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 52 reviews
April 3, 2021
This is one of my favourite kinds of book - it takes on the way statistics are presented to us, points out flaws and pitfalls, and gives clear guidance on how to do it better. The Chivers brothers' book isn't particularly new in doing this - for example, Michael Blastland and Andrew Dilnot did something similar in the excellent 2007 title The Tiger that Isn't - but it's good to have an up-to-date take on the subject, and How to Read Numbers gives us both some excellent new examples and highlights errors that are more common now.
The relatively slim title (and that's a good thing) takes the reader through a whole host of things that can go wrong. So, for example, they explore the dangers of anecdotal evidence, tell of study samples that are too small or badly selected, explore the easily misunderstood meaning of 'statistical significance', consider confounders, effect size, absolute versus relative risk, rankings, cherry picking and more.
This is all done in a light, approachable style that makes the book a delight to read. Just occasionally the jokes are a little heavy-handed (as when they gave examples based on people buying their book), but it's all nicely balanced, informative and laser-accurate in pinpointing the errors we see day after day from the media. The book finishes with a 'statistical style guide' for journalists, which should be printed out and placed on every desk in a media outlet.
Off the top of my head, the only major issue they don't address is - though this is indirectly covered in asking for statistics to be given with confidence intervals. Overall, an excellent addition to the armoury of good use of statistics. I suspect a self-selecting readership will result in the Chivers brothers largely preaching to the converted - but if even a few media sources take the hint it will be well worth it, and even if they don't, it gives readers the tools to recognise misuse of statistics in many cases.
The relatively slim title (and that's a good thing) takes the reader through a whole host of things that can go wrong. So, for example, they explore the dangers of anecdotal evidence, tell of study samples that are too small or badly selected, explore the easily misunderstood meaning of 'statistical significance', consider confounders, effect size, absolute versus relative risk, rankings, cherry picking and more.
This is all done in a light, approachable style that makes the book a delight to read. Just occasionally the jokes are a little heavy-handed (as when they gave examples based on people buying their book), but it's all nicely balanced, informative and laser-accurate in pinpointing the errors we see day after day from the media. The book finishes with a 'statistical style guide' for journalists, which should be printed out and placed on every desk in a media outlet.
Off the top of my head, the only major issue they don't address is - though this is indirectly covered in asking for statistics to be given with confidence intervals. Overall, an excellent addition to the armoury of good use of statistics. I suspect a self-selecting readership will result in the Chivers brothers largely preaching to the converted - but if even a few media sources take the hint it will be well worth it, and even if they don't, it gives readers the tools to recognise misuse of statistics in many cases.
June 2, 2021
More nonfiction books should be written like this: short, clear, it's very obvious what it's trying to achieve, not too technical.
(I find it hard to recommend without mentioning that I have two physics degrees and married someone who describes themselves as a "Bayesian statistician" so there wasn't anything really new to me. But it all seems correct and solid advice with some great lines, and should be read by all journalists and lots of other people).
(I find it hard to recommend without mentioning that I have two physics degrees and married someone who describes themselves as a "Bayesian statistician" so there wasn't anything really new to me. But it all seems correct and solid advice with some great lines, and should be read by all journalists and lots of other people).
July 7, 2024
This is a short, but very informative and useful book, to help you try to make sense of the myriads of numbers that are thrown at you every day in the media, advertising and on the internet.
You don’t need a prior knowledge of mathematics or statistics to understand the book. Everything is explained in simple terms with many relevant, easy to grasp, examples. For those who want to delve deeper into the mathematics, each chapter has an add-on section. These are highlighted as ‘extra, but not essential reading� and can be skipped over, without losing any understanding of the principles under discussion.
I believe that statistics is probably the most important area of maths that is taught in schools, and is essential for navigating and understanding the world of information (only money matters and budgeting comes close in importance). [Pure maths is (in my opinion) the most fascinating and wonderful branch of mathematics, but it is not particularly useful for daily living, and (unfortunately) most people can do without it]. I wish I had had the book when I was teaching maths, as there are so many great examples given, which would have been invaluable to put before the pupils.
The chapter headings are:
The book is very readable, and has a subtle sense of humour. One passage that really appealed to me (though had little to do with statistics) was:
I would recommend this book to everyone � especially to those who struggle with numbers and stats, but want to understand.
You don’t need a prior knowledge of mathematics or statistics to understand the book. Everything is explained in simple terms with many relevant, easy to grasp, examples. For those who want to delve deeper into the mathematics, each chapter has an add-on section. These are highlighted as ‘extra, but not essential reading� and can be skipped over, without losing any understanding of the principles under discussion.
I believe that statistics is probably the most important area of maths that is taught in schools, and is essential for navigating and understanding the world of information (only money matters and budgeting comes close in importance). [Pure maths is (in my opinion) the most fascinating and wonderful branch of mathematics, but it is not particularly useful for daily living, and (unfortunately) most people can do without it]. I wish I had had the book when I was teaching maths, as there are so many great examples given, which would have been invaluable to put before the pupils.
The chapter headings are:
1) Put numbers into context.
2) Give absolute risk, not just relative
3) Check whether the study you’re reporting on is a fair representation of the literature
4) Give the sample size of the study � and be wary of small samples
5) Be aware of problems that science is struggling with, like p-hacking and publication bias
6) Don’t report forecasts as single numbers. Give the confidence interval and explain it.
7) Be careful about saying or implying that something causes something else
8) Be wary of cherry-picking and random variation
9) Beware of rankings
10) Always give your sources
11) If you get it wrong, admit it
The book is very readable, and has a subtle sense of humour. One passage that really appealed to me (though had little to do with statistics) was:
Imagine you’re on a beach one afternoon. The waves come in and out; sometimes they reach higher up the beach, sometimes lower. You’ve built a sandcastle, and you’re waiting for it to be destroyed by the tide. (This is a good thing to do with young children, to teach them about the remorselessness of time and the futility of all human endeavour.).
I would recommend this book to everyone � especially to those who struggle with numbers and stats, but want to understand.
September 4, 2021
Finished this book in less than two days through audiobook, I have enjoyed the authors' approach in explaining mathematically technical concepts in order to provide context, clarity and absolute objective perspective to every data, table, and graph seen in the news.
It is often true that the more alarming the headline sounds by the way it was written, the more it attracts readers' interests into reading the article. But some articles have been providing plots that have little to no context at all. This book will enlighten you on how to critique data results and presentations in news so you would never be fooled by another misleading or exaggerated headline again.
Best read along/before/after How Not to Be Wrong by Jordan Ellenberg and The Art of Thinking Clearly by Rolf Dobelli.
It is often true that the more alarming the headline sounds by the way it was written, the more it attracts readers' interests into reading the article. But some articles have been providing plots that have little to no context at all. This book will enlighten you on how to critique data results and presentations in news so you would never be fooled by another misleading or exaggerated headline again.
Best read along/before/after How Not to Be Wrong by Jordan Ellenberg and The Art of Thinking Clearly by Rolf Dobelli.
October 19, 2021
*Concept of R (virus spread rate)
Mean average and median
Dz’s-貹dz
Anecdotal evidence (1 case)
Variance concept (distance from average)
Normal distribution
How many is Enough?
*Un-skew the data (adjust the weight)
Framing effect (angle)
Null and alternative hypothesis
*Significant testing (fluke%)
*P-value & P-Hacking (0.05)
*95% accuracy
Meta-analyses (literature review)
Confounder (ice-cream and drowning)
Least squares method (sum of squared residuals)
Instrumental variable approach (wars, economic growth and rainfall)
*Denominator (x/?). Absolute Value vs Relative Value. Reference point. the prior probability.)
Prosecutor’s fallacy
Priming effect (first)
Publication Bias (novelty)
“funnel plot� (triangle shape. distribution)
Poisson distribution
Texas sharpshooter fallacy (draws a bullseye around cluster)
Survivorship bias (the ones that came back)
*Collider bias (control. grey hair & running speed. food poisoning and influenza with control for fever)
Goodhart’s Law (focus too much on measure & metrics)
January 22, 2022
A very interesting book, almost a refresher course on college statistics, with emphasis on myriad ways in which news misquote data. The book explores a number of statistical biases that creep into studies reported and educates you on how to detect such biases. My favourite was the Goodhart's Law which states that "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure". This one you can see everywhere, from govts. chasing Covid testing as targets to metrics used at workplace.
The authors at the end ask even the readers to call out on such media outlets and hold them responsible for incomplete/inaccurate reports.
"This is not just a book, in fact, but the start of a campaign for statistical literacy and responsibility in the media."
The authors at the end ask even the readers to call out on such media outlets and hold them responsible for incomplete/inaccurate reports.
"This is not just a book, in fact, but the start of a campaign for statistical literacy and responsibility in the media."
January 19, 2022
I was rooting for this book. Don't get me wrong, it is a good book but falls short of it becoming great. We're bombarded with numbers and statistics in news and popular media and the book does a good job identifying some of the pitfalls readers and authors fall into. The book is careful not to assign blame because this stuff is hard.
Unfortunately this is a terse reading. Most times it felt matter of fact. I appreciate the fact that they don't labor the point but I wish it did at some point. For instance, I learned about collider variable but I can't recall the exact mechanism.
Unfortunately this is a terse reading. Most times it felt matter of fact. I appreciate the fact that they don't labor the point but I wish it did at some point. For instance, I learned about collider variable but I can't recall the exact mechanism.
October 25, 2022
Неочаквано интересна и полезна книга. Авторите доста се бяха постарали да обяснят сложни статистики по лесен, достъпен и забавен начин. Е, от едно четене няма да стана статистически гуру, но определено, помага да погледнеш по нов начин на всичките таблици, номера и статистики, които се ползват по новини, вестници и т.н. :)
Книгата е идеална да си я имаш до себе си и когато ти потрябва да отвориш на дадена глава и да разшифроваш поредните статистически данни, които са захвърлени в лицето ти без контекст и съдържание. :)
Книгата е идеална да си я имаш до себе си и когато ти потрябва да отвориш на дадена глава и да разшифроваш поредните статистически данни, които са захвърлени в лицето ти без контекст и съдържание. :)
October 9, 2022
Brilliant about important statistical concepts, explained in an accessible, intuitive and straightforward way, packed with real-world examples. Not only useful for journalists, who are the primary targets of this book, but also for academics, politicians, professionals, students and ordinary citizens aiming to understand data and science. The chapters are brief, but sufficiently long to give a proper understanding of all the concepts the book seeks to present.
December 27, 2022
Easy to understand guide to statistics - no math skills needed. Helps you to have a critical look at headlines and conclusions made based on statistics. You'll learn what are e.g. Simpson's paradox, prosecutor's fallacy, cherry picking and Texas sharpshooter's fallacy.
Here's the summary of book's advice,
Here's the summary of book's advice,
November 21, 2023
Enjoyable read regarding how statistics can be prone to different biases etc. Important as ever in todays climate.
June 28, 2024
My undergrad literature in a book, although probably more like ASM and BCM it had some good and practical ways to navigate scary news headlines
April 19, 2025
Mye repetisjon av gammel kunnskap, dog mye ny kunnskap. Lavterskel og lett lesing
Read
January 30, 2023Очень отрезвляющая и полезная книга. Рациональному и критическому мышлению ура.
October 16, 2022
This book should be essential reading for everyone. It covers all the areas in which you can be misled by numbers and statistics. It is very readable and presented very clearly. It has a slight bias towards British examples but this in no way demininishes it. In fact, it is nice to see something written that does not pander to a probably broader worldwide audience. That said, I in no way want to give the impression that this makes the book less accessible or worthwhile for anyone. Everyone should read it. Everyone should understand it.
January 18, 2022
There’s nothing wrong with this book, it just didn’t contain anything new or particularly interesting
December 10, 2022
читала на русском.
короткая, по делу, подойдёт и как гид для журналистов, и как пособие по цифрам для читателей
короткая, по делу, подойдёт и как гид для журналистов, и как пособие по цифрам для читателей
June 27, 2024
I hadn’t heard of this book until recently. Glad I found it (thanks to goodreads!). The news is SO misleading SO much of the time. Especially with data. Tom and David Chivers help sort all this out.
As they highlight, context with data matters a ton. Take this simple statement: Nearly ten percent of the world’s people live in extreme poverty.
This is true. And standing alone, without context, this statement would lead many to think the world has a huge poverty problem. They'd be right. But they'd also be missing a big part of the equation: Just twenty-five years ago nearly 30 percent of people lived in extreme poverty.
So the world’s extreme poverty problem is actually getting much better.
The prospects for the future would be very different if instead of consistently improving extreme poverty was stagnating at nearly ten percent. Or, worse, if extreme poverty was increasing. But there's no way of knowing which of these distinct scenarios is true from the simple statement alone.
You need context. And the news so often doesn’t provide any.
Terrorism is another good example. The events of September 11, 2001 highlighted the great dangers of terrorism. It obviously has received a lot of press. But what about other threats? While terrorists have killed about 3,000 Americans since 2000, over 20,000 Americans die by homicide or murder annually. And more than 38,000 die from traffic accidents each year.
Is terrorism, in context, as threatening as the media can make it seem?
Hardly.
The book explains in great detail how people embrace facts presented by the press without context all the time. They disregard trends. They ignore the net impact of something and focus on discrete effects. They gloss over comparables and instead focus on isolated samples. They confuse outliers and aberrations with the mean or the median. And—a big recurring challenge—many have trouble with scale, hardly distinguishing 100 million units of something from a billion units.
Anecdotal thinking, moreover, is particularly widespread, as the authors delve into. The press often tells stories without considering the big picture. Global warming deniers, for example, describe dramatic blizzards to assert that the world is not warming. But to know whether there's global warming you need to know, well, whether the globe is warming—not how much snow there was in a single place on a single day. And the data clearly establish that Earth, on the whole, is getting hotter.
It’s often the case, like with global warming, that context with data is not just important—it is a necessary precondition to understanding something at all.
This short little book isn’t just enjoyable; it’s super useful. All consumers of the news should read it. And—perhaps more importantly—so should every journalist.
As they highlight, context with data matters a ton. Take this simple statement: Nearly ten percent of the world’s people live in extreme poverty.
This is true. And standing alone, without context, this statement would lead many to think the world has a huge poverty problem. They'd be right. But they'd also be missing a big part of the equation: Just twenty-five years ago nearly 30 percent of people lived in extreme poverty.
So the world’s extreme poverty problem is actually getting much better.
The prospects for the future would be very different if instead of consistently improving extreme poverty was stagnating at nearly ten percent. Or, worse, if extreme poverty was increasing. But there's no way of knowing which of these distinct scenarios is true from the simple statement alone.
You need context. And the news so often doesn’t provide any.
Terrorism is another good example. The events of September 11, 2001 highlighted the great dangers of terrorism. It obviously has received a lot of press. But what about other threats? While terrorists have killed about 3,000 Americans since 2000, over 20,000 Americans die by homicide or murder annually. And more than 38,000 die from traffic accidents each year.
Is terrorism, in context, as threatening as the media can make it seem?
Hardly.
The book explains in great detail how people embrace facts presented by the press without context all the time. They disregard trends. They ignore the net impact of something and focus on discrete effects. They gloss over comparables and instead focus on isolated samples. They confuse outliers and aberrations with the mean or the median. And—a big recurring challenge—many have trouble with scale, hardly distinguishing 100 million units of something from a billion units.
Anecdotal thinking, moreover, is particularly widespread, as the authors delve into. The press often tells stories without considering the big picture. Global warming deniers, for example, describe dramatic blizzards to assert that the world is not warming. But to know whether there's global warming you need to know, well, whether the globe is warming—not how much snow there was in a single place on a single day. And the data clearly establish that Earth, on the whole, is getting hotter.
It’s often the case, like with global warming, that context with data is not just important—it is a necessary precondition to understanding something at all.
This short little book isn’t just enjoyable; it’s super useful. All consumers of the news should read it. And—perhaps more importantly—so should every journalist.
November 21, 2024
How to Read Numbers: A Guide to Stats in the News (and Knowing When to Trust Them) by Tom Chivers and David Chivers is a practical, accessible and often assuming book that builds its readers a toolkit to pick apart the data they read in the news. With one an economist and the other a science journalist, the Chivers cousins are well equipped to the task, presenting complicated concepts digestibly and regularly using relatable news stories to explain them.
In delightfully bite-size chinks, the book runs through 22 mistakes the media (and others) make in its presentation of data. Each chapter follows a similar self-contained model, which makes the book highly readable. It begins by presenting a news story involving data and illustrating the mistake it makes or the problem it causes for its reader. The authors then briefly outline the statistical jargon or concept that underlines the problem, before moving to an invented example to showcase the concept in practice. Finally, the chapter returns to the headline, the real news story, and prompts the reader to engage again with the news story, but now equipped with the relevant tool to break it apart.
The approach makes the book both highly readable and easily accessible to a novice, enabling a reader to learn without perhaps being aware they are learning, or how much they are learning. Moreover, the books levity and brevity lend a certain ease to what could otherwise be a dry, dull subject. While this reader enjoyed the style and approach - designed to appeal to a novice reader - a more knowledgeable reader may find this book to be a timely but ultimately limited analysis of how low numeral literacy occurs and impacts our perceptions. The book is highly repetitive of themes, and often offers only cursory nods to in-depth descriptions or mechanisms for solving the problems it creates. As journalist Stephen Bush noted in the Big Issue a few years back, a sequel explaining how to *write* numbers feels an essential development this book neither aspires to nor achieves.
For the uninitiated amongst you, I'd that, statistically speaking, there is a very low p-value that you won't enjoy this book. But if you already know what the line above means... this book might not be for you!
In delightfully bite-size chinks, the book runs through 22 mistakes the media (and others) make in its presentation of data. Each chapter follows a similar self-contained model, which makes the book highly readable. It begins by presenting a news story involving data and illustrating the mistake it makes or the problem it causes for its reader. The authors then briefly outline the statistical jargon or concept that underlines the problem, before moving to an invented example to showcase the concept in practice. Finally, the chapter returns to the headline, the real news story, and prompts the reader to engage again with the news story, but now equipped with the relevant tool to break it apart.
The approach makes the book both highly readable and easily accessible to a novice, enabling a reader to learn without perhaps being aware they are learning, or how much they are learning. Moreover, the books levity and brevity lend a certain ease to what could otherwise be a dry, dull subject. While this reader enjoyed the style and approach - designed to appeal to a novice reader - a more knowledgeable reader may find this book to be a timely but ultimately limited analysis of how low numeral literacy occurs and impacts our perceptions. The book is highly repetitive of themes, and often offers only cursory nods to in-depth descriptions or mechanisms for solving the problems it creates. As journalist Stephen Bush noted in the Big Issue a few years back, a sequel explaining how to *write* numbers feels an essential development this book neither aspires to nor achieves.
For the uninitiated amongst you, I'd that, statistically speaking, there is a very low p-value that you won't enjoy this book. But if you already know what the line above means... this book might not be for you!
November 10, 2024
How to read numbers, or: Do not trust any number you see in the media at first glance.
This took me ages to finish because it's non-fiction, and if the decision is between should I continue reading my fiction/fantasy/romance novel that has great plot and world building or this non-fiction book about math, you can probably guess what the answer is going to be most of the times...
But once I did pick it up it was always a good read! It has easy breakdowns of how statistics and numbers and studies work and it also holds up being a book from 2021, even when reading it three years later. A lot of times, non-fiction books become a little outdated, this is not the case here and if you have no idea about statistics in the news and want to learn the basics (and your fiction novels are sounding a little dull at the moment), I would recommend giving this ago!
This took me ages to finish because it's non-fiction, and if the decision is between should I continue reading my fiction/fantasy/romance novel that has great plot and world building or this non-fiction book about math, you can probably guess what the answer is going to be most of the times...
But once I did pick it up it was always a good read! It has easy breakdowns of how statistics and numbers and studies work and it also holds up being a book from 2021, even when reading it three years later. A lot of times, non-fiction books become a little outdated, this is not the case here and if you have no idea about statistics in the news and want to learn the basics (and your fiction novels are sounding a little dull at the moment), I would recommend giving this ago!
January 12, 2025
Another book explaining statistics and their misuses, this books also happens to be very well-written, humorous, and educational. I found it an easy but informative read, and I will recommend this book to anyone looking to spot statistical errors in the press or wanting to learn a bit more about statistics in general. The only reason I knocked off a star (really only half a star) is because it had a bit too much focus on British concepts, some of which I didn’t follow very well. Other than this minor issue, a very good book! 4.5/5
November 3, 2022
Great little book. Pitched at exactly the right level to be both helpful and easy to read. While I was familiar with a lot of the concepts discussed it's a great refresher of basic statistics and things to look out for whenever dealing with numbers out in the wild. Will almost certainly keep handy for future reference and would recommend to anyone that wants to be more informed about how the world is presented to them.
October 4, 2023
The authors have suggested that creators of media and consumers of media should read this book, it I feel everyone would benefit from reading this book! This book summarises the in layman's terms the principles of applied basic statistics. Being aware of the common statistical mistakes that we may come across makes us more, accurately, informed.
April 17, 2024
"How to Read Numbers" offers a brief and accessible introduction to understanding numbers and statistics, covering fundamental concepts. While it serves as a good starting point, it feels too basic for me on the subject. Overall, it provides a solid foundation but probably leaves many readers wanting more complexity.
March 7, 2025
Gives statistical tools and welcomes you to critically analyse news. If you have a STEM background, you might find it as more of a refresher rather than learning new concepts. A highlight for me was Goodhart's Law ("when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure") and the need to publish/record less novel studies or the ones that did not show a significant result.
March 30, 2021
Full of useful advice but short enough to be very readable
So good I wish I had written it.
Full of valuable advice that all journalists who use numbers should read. And all those who want to understand news stories should also read to improve their skeptics intuition.
So good I wish I had written it.
Full of valuable advice that all journalists who use numbers should read. And all those who want to understand news stories should also read to improve their skeptics intuition.
May 31, 2022
Definitely not worth taking the time to read if you’ve taken a stats class recently enough you can remember it, but we’d be a lot better off if everyone who hasn’t were to read it. Short and sweet and succinct, good lessons, explained very well.
August 8, 2022
Surprisingly easy to read and entertaining. Completely accessible, even to those with no humber literacy.
It explains the basic concepts with entertaining examples and clear, to the point explanations.
Wonderful
It explains the basic concepts with entertaining examples and clear, to the point explanations.
Wonderful
October 1, 2023
This was an excellent read, looking at how statistics are often used in a way that misrepresents the facts. The author even provides a statistical style guide when presenting information numbers. I recommend this book to others.
November 21, 2023
Очень полезная книга даже для тех, кто постоянно имеет дело с данными: держит в тонусе, не давая лениться. Исчерпывающий и понятно даже обывателю написанный гид о том, как читать новости. Хотя может разочаровать любителей сенсаций и однозначных выводов.
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