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152 pages, ebook
First published May 1, 2016
Climate dynamics, geology, and biology are all causally intertwined in the Earth system, and are bound to be intertwined on other inhabited worlds. By generalizing our models of the Earth system and its development, researchers are beginning to formulate what I would christen 鈥楨xo-Earth system science鈥欌€攁 general science of habitable and inhabited worlds. In the next decade we will begin to be able to test the predictions of those models against new observations of what our current theories say should be potentially habitable exoplanets. There are bound to be surprises鈥攑erhaps profound ones鈥攁bout the prevalence of habitable worlds, and of life, in the nearby cosmos. Perhaps we will find that despite all those potentially habitable planets out there, there are no signs of life on any of them. Perhaps we will find abundant life and will be left pondering why after fifty years of searching, no signal of extraterrestrial intelligence has been detected. Either way, the results are destined to change our view of ourselves and of our world. I trust that we will look back at the Earth and our own intelligence with a renewed sense of wonder and a determination to help sustain this remarkable planet.Lurking behind that innocent paragraph is a sizable shelf of other books. I'd start with:
Equally, Earth system considerations call for some rethinking of economics and a wider social discussion about what kind of future we want, which will engage the arts and the humanities as well as the social sciences.I imagine artists and humanitarians deserve as much voice as anyone else, but I wasn't aware that these groups had any particular insight into making civilization sustainable. I thought artists were mainly interested in making things look pretty, at least before art took its modern turn and decided the viewer needed to be shocked. And I'm not sure what "the humanities" can tell us about things like stoichiometry, which is the first step in calculating carbon footprints and understanding nutrient cycling. Lenton left out a number of other groups, such as the Amish, who apart from their fecundity might be closer to living sustainabily than most people in the United States. In any case, I think it's a bit early to talk about the future "we want," given that what "we want" and are currently taking is so far beyond what we can sustainably have. The first job is to change what "we want", namely in the direction of far less material and energy (particularly fossil carbon energy).