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1983.
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Reading Progress
November 18, 2024
–
Started Reading
November 18, 2024
– Shelved
November 18, 2024
–
1.75%
"Prologue: Hiroshima/Nagasaki
70k buildings damaged/destroyed
200k deaths after 5 years
1949.08.29 - "First Lightning" NE Kazakhstan
Igor Kurchatov
Stalin appointed Lavrenti Beria
4 days later detected by US B-29
Arzamus-16
Put every resource into it
American response to develop H-bomb
Truman gave go-ahead in 1950.01
1952,11.01 Eniwetok tst
Had to be refrigerated
Soviets get H-bomb 9 months later, needs on refrig."
page
7
70k buildings damaged/destroyed
200k deaths after 5 years
1949.08.29 - "First Lightning" NE Kazakhstan
Igor Kurchatov
Stalin appointed Lavrenti Beria
4 days later detected by US B-29
Arzamus-16
Put every resource into it
American response to develop H-bomb
Truman gave go-ahead in 1950.01
1952,11.01 Eniwetok tst
Had to be refrigerated
Soviets get H-bomb 9 months later, needs on refrig."
November 18, 2024
–
2.5%
"1954.01: Doctrine of massive retaliation
No surprise first strike
1950: 298 US nukes, end of devase more than 18k
B052 bombers constantly in the air
1957.05: Soviets launch first nuclear ICBM
.10: Sputnik launch
Soviet lead, failed US Vanguard missile launch
1961.10: Soviets largest explosion triggered on Earth
Khruschev's comments
1950s: Still no overall strategic plan for US use of nukes"
page
10
No surprise first strike
1950: 298 US nukes, end of devase more than 18k
B052 bombers constantly in the air
1957.05: Soviets launch first nuclear ICBM
.10: Sputnik launch
Soviet lead, failed US Vanguard missile launch
1961.10: Soviets largest explosion triggered on Earth
Khruschev's comments
1950s: Still no overall strategic plan for US use of nukes"
November 21, 2024
–
2.75%
"JFK - rething US nuclear policy
Roosevelt allowed commanders to authorize nukes
JFK -> Only the President can authorize nukes, systems to prevent accidental launch
Massive Retaliation rejected as not fit for purpose. Selective retaliation. `Counterforce`
New SIOP
Cuban Missile crisis 1962, settled w/ secret agreement to remove US missiles from Turkey
Cuban missiles were armed when invasion was considered"
page
11
Roosevelt allowed commanders to authorize nukes
JFK -> Only the President can authorize nukes, systems to prevent accidental launch
Massive Retaliation rejected as not fit for purpose. Selective retaliation. `Counterforce`
New SIOP
Cuban Missile crisis 1962, settled w/ secret agreement to remove US missiles from Turkey
Cuban missiles were armed when invasion was considered"
November 21, 2024
–
3.5%
"RAND Corporation: MAD
Mid 60s: Soviets develop ABMs
Late 60s: US develops MIRVs
US regains lead, Atlas, Titan, Thor ICBMs
Nuclear Subs: Polaris
After missile crisis: Partial Test Ban Treaty
1968 - Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
1972 - Nixon, Brezhnev sign SALT I, new era of détente
1975 - Ford, Helsinki accords
Soyuz and Apollo dock together in outer space
Moscow - underground city
US Pershing missiles were fast"
page
14
Mid 60s: Soviets develop ABMs
Late 60s: US develops MIRVs
US regains lead, Atlas, Titan, Thor ICBMs
Nuclear Subs: Polaris
After missile crisis: Partial Test Ban Treaty
1968 - Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
1972 - Nixon, Brezhnev sign SALT I, new era of détente
1975 - Ford, Helsinki accords
Soyuz and Apollo dock together in outer space
Moscow - underground city
US Pershing missiles were fast"
November 21, 2024
–
5.0%
"Preemptive strikes may be necessary
'Launch Under Attack'
Therefore danger: If one side gets an advantage, increased likelihood of launching first strike.
1980s Soviets began to fear US would launch first strike. Reagan elected.
REAGAN
Sworn in 1981
40 min later US hostages in Iran returned from Tehran airport, made to wait tl/ inauguration. Negotiated by Carter.
Richard Allen first announcement is of their release."
page
20
'Launch Under Attack'
Therefore danger: If one side gets an advantage, increased likelihood of launching first strike.
1980s Soviets began to fear US would launch first strike. Reagan elected.
REAGAN
Sworn in 1981
40 min later US hostages in Iran returned from Tehran airport, made to wait tl/ inauguration. Negotiated by Carter.
Richard Allen first announcement is of their release."
November 21, 2024
–
5.5%
"Reagan born in 1911, grew up in Dixon. Father Jack Reagan, shoe salesman, occasional heavy drinker. Mother Nelle, religious.
Struggling childhood. Optimistic outlook, strong Christian faith, enjoyed westerns, adventure stories, morality tales where good wins over evil.
After Eureka College, sports reporter in radio.
Moved to Des Moines.
1937 - went to Hollywood, contract w/ WB.
B-movies
1940 - married Jane Wyman"
page
22
Struggling childhood. Optimistic outlook, strong Christian faith, enjoyed westerns, adventure stories, morality tales where good wins over evil.
After Eureka College, sports reporter in radio.
Moved to Des Moines.
1937 - went to Hollywood, contract w/ WB.
B-movies
1940 - married Jane Wyman"
November 24, 2024
–
6.25%
"1946 red scare
"The Communist Plan for Hollywood"
FBI under J. E. Hoover lead role in tracking down communists
Leaked names to sympathetic congressmen
1947 Reagan met with FBI, informer codename T-10, president of SAG, HUAC began.
Some actors refused to testify based on 1A. contempt of congress, 0.5-1 yr sentences. Nobody hired them afterward.
Realism in Hollywood
1948 - Reagan and Wyman divorced"
page
25
"The Communist Plan for Hollywood"
FBI under J. E. Hoover lead role in tracking down communists
Leaked names to sympathetic congressmen
1947 Reagan met with FBI, informer codename T-10, president of SAG, HUAC began.
Some actors refused to testify based on 1A. contempt of congress, 0.5-1 yr sentences. Nobody hired them afterward.
Realism in Hollywood
1948 - Reagan and Wyman divorced"
November 24, 2024
–
6.75%
"General Electric contract to host TV on CBS.
1954-1962 Reagan visited 139 GE plants.
Enabled him to be confident performer on TV.
Talking engagement -> fine speech-maker.
1964 - supports Goldwater, some considered Reagan. L. B. Johnson elected.
1966 - Runs for governor, "citizen-politician". No detailed policy.
Opponent Pat Brown
Won w/ 1m votes
Hands-off approach, one page typed summary, willing to compromsie"
page
27
1954-1962 Reagan visited 139 GE plants.
Enabled him to be confident performer on TV.
Talking engagement -> fine speech-maker.
1964 - supports Goldwater, some considered Reagan. L. B. Johnson elected.
1966 - Runs for governor, "citizen-politician". No detailed policy.
Opponent Pat Brown
Won w/ 1m votes
Hands-off approach, one page typed summary, willing to compromsie"
November 24, 2024
–
7.25%
"2nd term won about half of 1st
Reformed welfare payments
1974 he stood acide, eyeing election. Nixon resigns due to Watergate.
Reagan vs. Ford in 1976 GOP primaries
Ford lost to Jimmy Carter
Reagan fav. at 1980: Stagflation, withdrawal from Vietnam, communists gaining regimes, loss of Shah of Iran, replaced by Khomeini. "Great Satan" of America
1979 - US embassy psnl. in Tehran taken hostage
Carter looked weak"
page
29
Reformed welfare payments
1974 he stood acide, eyeing election. Nixon resigns due to Watergate.
Reagan vs. Ford in 1976 GOP primaries
Ford lost to Jimmy Carter
Reagan fav. at 1980: Stagflation, withdrawal from Vietnam, communists gaining regimes, loss of Shah of Iran, replaced by Khomeini. "Great Satan" of America
1979 - US embassy psnl. in Tehran taken hostage
Carter looked weak"
November 24, 2024
–
7.5%
"Committee on the Present Danger
Growing Soviet threat, opposed détente
SS-20 missiles, going on offensive in 3rd world
Claim: USSR designed to win nuclear war
Lobbied ag. SALT II
1979 - Reagan joins Ex. Board of CPD
Picked up CPD talking points
Xmas 1979 Soviets invade Afghanistan. Carter abandons SALT II, trade sanctions, boycott of Mscw. Olympics. He looked weak.
Reagan cold war warrior."
page
30
Growing Soviet threat, opposed détente
SS-20 missiles, going on offensive in 3rd world
Claim: USSR designed to win nuclear war
Lobbied ag. SALT II
1979 - Reagan joins Ex. Board of CPD
Picked up CPD talking points
Xmas 1979 Soviets invade Afghanistan. Carter abandons SALT II, trade sanctions, boycott of Mscw. Olympics. He looked weak.
Reagan cold war warrior."
November 24, 2024
–
8.5%
"Reagan's opponent George H. W. Bush
Personality & Leadership
Presented as outsider coming to shake things up
Alexander Haig for SoS
Caspar Weinberger for SoD
James Baker for CoS
Michael Deaver, known Reagan since California, link to Nancy. On the phone w/ First Lady up to 12 times a day. Nancy made opinions felt via Deaver.
Edwin Meese
Richard Allen NSAdvisor
1981 sworn in
Summary"
page
34
Personality & Leadership
Presented as outsider coming to shake things up
Alexander Haig for SoS
Caspar Weinberger for SoD
James Baker for CoS
Michael Deaver, known Reagan since California, link to Nancy. On the phone w/ First Lady up to 12 times a day. Nancy made opinions felt via Deaver.
Edwin Meese
Richard Allen NSAdvisor
1981 sworn in
Summary"
November 24, 2024
–
8.75%
"ANDROPOV
1982 - Brezhnev dies, he named Chernenko his favorite, but seen as spineless
Marshal Dmitri Ustinov, Defence Minister. Tough, worked for Stalin, built up Soviet bombing force and missile system from 60s
Wanted a stronger ruler, picked Yuri Andropov, 15 yrs head of KGB
Already appointed Andropov to funeral arrangements
Chernenko himself nominated Andropov
Brezhnev's death not made public
One-party state"
page
35
1982 - Brezhnev dies, he named Chernenko his favorite, but seen as spineless
Marshal Dmitri Ustinov, Defence Minister. Tough, worked for Stalin, built up Soviet bombing force and missile system from 60s
Wanted a stronger ruler, picked Yuri Andropov, 15 yrs head of KGB
Already appointed Andropov to funeral arrangements
Chernenko himself nominated Andropov
Brezhnev's death not made public
One-party state"
November 24, 2024
–
9.25%
"Stalin's Great Terror: more deaths than Hitler
Soviet leaders held supreme power.
Orthodoxy: central role of Communist Party, supreme rule of centralized state. Power held by self-perpetuating (elderly) elite.
Need for class-based confrontation and continuous struggle.
Each leader defined their own era
Brezhnev's rule: lack of change
Kremlinologists at Brezhnev's funeral: Bush, Shultz, Karl Carstens, Mauroy etc."
page
37
Soviet leaders held supreme power.
Orthodoxy: central role of Communist Party, supreme rule of centralized state. Power held by self-perpetuating (elderly) elite.
Need for class-based confrontation and continuous struggle.
Each leader defined their own era
Brezhnev's rule: lack of change
Kremlinologists at Brezhnev's funeral: Bush, Shultz, Karl Carstens, Mauroy etc."
November 24, 2024
–
9.5%
"Many expected Chernenko. Andropov appeared pale, stooping, elderly, awkward, hesitant.
68yrs old, little known about him in West, CIA not even sure if wife alive
Bush spent 30min and found him self-confident, clear, quick and concise
West German president Karl Carstens spent 90min
Brezhnev read prepared statements, defer to Andrei Gromyko, Foreign Minister
New broom sweeping through Kremlin"
page
38
68yrs old, little known about him in West, CIA not even sure if wife alive
Bush spent 30min and found him self-confident, clear, quick and concise
West German president Karl Carstens spent 90min
Brezhnev read prepared statements, defer to Andrei Gromyko, Foreign Minister
New broom sweeping through Kremlin"
November 25, 2024
–
10.0%
"Andropov born in 1914
Stavropol forced collectivisation
16yo joined the Komsomol
Rybinsk Technical College 1936
Komsomol secretary at college
Komsomol Central Committe organizer at local shipyards
1938 First Secretary of regional Komsomol
1940 Karelian Soviet Socialist Republic, meets wife Tanya, First Secretary of Komsomol in the region
1941 German invasion
Karelia railway"
page
40
Stavropol forced collectivisation
16yo joined the Komsomol
Rybinsk Technical College 1936
Komsomol secretary at college
Komsomol Central Committe organizer at local shipyards
1938 First Secretary of regional Komsomol
1940 Karelian Soviet Socialist Republic, meets wife Tanya, First Secretary of Komsomol in the region
1941 German invasion
Karelia railway"
November 25, 2024
–
10.5%
"Andropov's Komsomol involved in resistance, his work noted
Andropov leading Karelian reconstruction
1947 - Second Secretary in regional party
1950 - Narrowly survives purge
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, resp. for S relations to Eastern Eu.
1953 - Stalin's death
1954 - Soviet Ambassador to Hungary
1956 - Khrushchev's secret speech, Polish demonstrations, Wladyslaw Gomulka installed, Khrushchev threatens bringing troops"
page
42
Andropov leading Karelian reconstruction
1947 - Second Secretary in regional party
1950 - Narrowly survives purge
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, resp. for S relations to Eastern Eu.
1953 - Stalin's death
1954 - Soviet Ambassador to Hungary
1956 - Khrushchev's secret speech, Polish demonstrations, Wladyslaw Gomulka installed, Khrushchev threatens bringing troops"
November 25, 2024
–
10.75%
"Even bigger demonstrations later in Hungary
Hungarian leader calls Andropov to help, 30k troops surround Budapest
Imre Nagy installed
November - Soviet tanks, battles in Budapest
Hu. looks to west for military support - Eisenhower says no
Andropov shifts allegiance to János Kádár
300 rebels incl. Nagy, were executed (Andropov likely played a role)
Andropov calm while others felt besieged @ embassy"
page
43
Hungarian leader calls Andropov to help, 30k troops surround Budapest
Imre Nagy installed
November - Soviet tanks, battles in Budapest
Hu. looks to west for military support - Eisenhower says no
Andropov shifts allegiance to János Kádár
300 rebels incl. Nagy, were executed (Andropov likely played a role)
Andropov calm while others felt besieged @ embassy"
November 25, 2024
–
11.25%
"Andropov showed he would be loyal to Soviet state
`Hungarian complex`
One year later returns to Moscow, member of Central Committee, international department
Andropov brought Yugoslavia back into the fold, managed relations with Mao's China, Sino-Russian split
Traveled widely within Com. block
2nd in command to Mikhail Suslov, and Khrushchev
Moderate, but not liberal
1967 - Head of KGB, non-voting mem of Politburo"
page
45
`Hungarian complex`
One year later returns to Moscow, member of Central Committee, international department
Andropov brought Yugoslavia back into the fold, managed relations with Mao's China, Sino-Russian split
Traveled widely within Com. block
2nd in command to Mikhail Suslov, and Khrushchev
Moderate, but not liberal
1967 - Head of KGB, non-voting mem of Politburo"
November 30, 2024
–
12.5%
"Andropov studied files at KGB
Jewish purges 1951-2
1968 - Prague spring: Dubcek, socialism w/ human face
Moscow sent in tanks
1973 - Andropov full member of Politburo: Ageing membership
Analytical mind, transformed KGB, pressure on dissidents
Helsinki Monitoring Group - imprisoned or executed
Moscow olympics 1980 - Andropov 'impending ideological sabotage' Schoolchildren evacuated from moscow
Saw many deficiencies"
page
50
Jewish purges 1951-2
1968 - Prague spring: Dubcek, socialism w/ human face
Moscow sent in tanks
1973 - Andropov full member of Politburo: Ageing membership
Analytical mind, transformed KGB, pressure on dissidents
Helsinki Monitoring Group - imprisoned or executed
Moscow olympics 1980 - Andropov 'impending ideological sabotage' Schoolchildren evacuated from moscow
Saw many deficiencies"
November 30, 2024
–
14.0%
"REAGAN REARMS
Public: tough, private: friendly (handwritten letters)
Part of Reagan's outlook
Accelerated military buildup
B1-B bomber, Pershing II planned
M-1 Abrams
F/A-18 Hornet
Lockheed stealth bomber - congress not told
NSA expanded 150%, new buildings and roads
Deficit 909b to 2.5t
Possible decap. nuc. attack"
page
56
Public: tough, private: friendly (handwritten letters)
Part of Reagan's outlook
Accelerated military buildup
B1-B bomber, Pershing II planned
M-1 Abrams
F/A-18 Hornet
Lockheed stealth bomber - congress not told
NSA expanded 150%, new buildings and roads
Deficit 909b to 2.5t
Possible decap. nuc. attack"
November 30, 2024
–
15.0%
"1981.03: Assassination attempt, AG receives reports from FBI, TS requests WS suspend trading. VP rushing back to DC. Soviet subs off US Atlantic "strange moves". SAM on alert.
Assassin lone gunman.
Letter to Brezhnev, 'an icy reply'.
Ivy League 82, rehearse protocols 4 nuclear strike
National Emergency Airborne Command Post
Further rehearsal before ivy."
page
60
Assassin lone gunman.
Letter to Brezhnev, 'an icy reply'.
Ivy League 82, rehearse protocols 4 nuclear strike
National Emergency Airborne Command Post
Further rehearsal before ivy."
November 30, 2024
–
16.0%
"1982.02: Situation Room briefing, prelude to ivy
"Reagan absorbed the discussions well" - Thomas Reed
Nine Lives, Rec 82 Alpha
"The map was a sea of red"
Reagan stunned by the speed and scale
Reagan told 150m US would die but it's possible to win a nuclear war. Reagan appalled. Only carried SIOP codes. "Ensure the ultimate nightmare never occurs" - Eureka speech
Speech had no effect on Moscow"
page
64
"Reagan absorbed the discussions well" - Thomas Reed
Nine Lives, Rec 82 Alpha
"The map was a sea of red"
Reagan stunned by the speed and scale
Reagan told 150m US would die but it's possible to win a nuclear war. Reagan appalled. Only carried SIOP codes. "Ensure the ultimate nightmare never occurs" - Eureka speech
Speech had no effect on Moscow"
November 30, 2024
–
16.75%
"Reagan: Soviet economy in "dire shape". New oil pipeline from Russia to west EU constructed, Reagan put immense pressure on EU allies not to sell the tech required for pipeline.
NNSDD 32: Weaken USSR alliances, USSR to bear brunt of economic shortcomings.
London speech on USSR economy
Mid-terms 1982: Dems capture 26 House seats.
1983.03: evil empire speech, Nancy argued against
Wanted Andropov to take note"
page
67
NNSDD 32: Weaken USSR alliances, USSR to bear brunt of economic shortcomings.
London speech on USSR economy
Mid-terms 1982: Dems capture 26 House seats.
1983.03: evil empire speech, Nancy argued against
Wanted Andropov to take note"
December 13, 2024
–
18.25%
"OPERATION RYaN
1972 war game - nervous Brezhnev
The nomenklatura
Brezhnev favored détente
Kremlin wanted 2 help 3rd world movements toward Socialism -> triumph without nuclear war
1970s: US economy striding forward, Soviets stagnating
Brezhnev old and frail
Computers: soviets behind, against the grain of Soviet society: illegal to own typewriter
This + Reagan generated paranoia
Nikolai Orgakov interview 1983"
page
73
1972 war game - nervous Brezhnev
The nomenklatura
Brezhnev favored détente
Kremlin wanted 2 help 3rd world movements toward Socialism -> triumph without nuclear war
1970s: US economy striding forward, Soviets stagnating
Brezhnev old and frail
Computers: soviets behind, against the grain of Soviet society: illegal to own typewriter
This + Reagan generated paranoia
Nikolai Orgakov interview 1983"
December 13, 2024
–
19.0%
"KGB a vast organization
1972 - FCD brand new building
1974 - Andropov appoints Vladimir Aleksandrovich Kryuchkov as FCD head: Andropov ally "unsmiling interior", total belief the West was conspiring against them.
KGB understanding of Watergate
SS-20 missiles alarmed West
Afghanistan - 1970s coup, Kabul asks Moscow 4 help 1979
12 Dec. meeting: Brezhnev drunk, Andropov and hard liners win out, they invade."
page
76
1972 - FCD brand new building
1974 - Andropov appoints Vladimir Aleksandrovich Kryuchkov as FCD head: Andropov ally "unsmiling interior", total belief the West was conspiring against them.
KGB understanding of Watergate
SS-20 missiles alarmed West
Afghanistan - 1970s coup, Kabul asks Moscow 4 help 1979
12 Dec. meeting: Brezhnev drunk, Andropov and hard liners win out, they invade."
December 13, 2024
–
19.25%
"Carter warns Brezhnev Afghanistan 'turning point', calls off SALT II, boycotts Moscow olympics
600k Russian troops passed through Afg. by 1980s, against guerilla army
Thousands of soldiers sent home in body bags on 'Black Tulips', land out of sight. 'Afgantsies' shunned due to rumors of war crimes, struggled w/ benefits
Reagan confrontational tone since beginning
1981 politburo meeting: universally angry"
page
77
600k Russian troops passed through Afg. by 1980s, against guerilla army
Thousands of soldiers sent home in body bags on 'Black Tulips', land out of sight. 'Afgantsies' shunned due to rumors of war crimes, struggled w/ benefits
Reagan confrontational tone since beginning
1981 politburo meeting: universally angry"
December 13, 2024
–
20.25%
"Pershing missiles: only possible target was leadership: Soviet defense adviser.
1980s: Soviet leadership feels balance of power is turning against them
May 1981: Andropov declares US preparing for war, nuclear war likely, calls for creation of RYaN, to give warning of attack
Haunted by 1941
Every Sov. embassy had KGB resident officer and a team, sent regular reports to Moscow. Also ran agents in the field."
page
81
1980s: Soviet leadership feels balance of power is turning against them
May 1981: Andropov declares US preparing for war, nuclear war likely, calls for creation of RYaN, to give warning of attack
Haunted by 1941
Every Sov. embassy had KGB resident officer and a team, sent regular reports to Moscow. Also ran agents in the field."
December 13, 2024
–
21.0%
"For RYaN, KGB residencies indicators of nuclear first strike.
Different categories.
During 1st year, no. of indicators grew to 292: Ne prosmotrite
RYaN confirmed in1981 KGB report by Andropov to Brezhnev
Volume of reports -> Moscow KGB sets up computer program
East Ger. for. int. service head writes skeptical letter
Large Perspex board: markers x, matrix, at-a-glance
Demands grew to absurdity: no. of lights on etc."
page
84
Different categories.
During 1st year, no. of indicators grew to 292: Ne prosmotrite
RYaN confirmed in1981 KGB report by Andropov to Brezhnev
Volume of reports -> Moscow KGB sets up computer program
East Ger. for. int. service head writes skeptical letter
Large Perspex board: markers x, matrix, at-a-glance
Demands grew to absurdity: no. of lights on etc."
December 13, 2024
–
22.25%
"Senior KGB op. Oleg Gordievsky was cynical, lip service to instructions
HVA asked to do exercises
1981.08 Brezhnev meets in secret in Crema w/ Warsaw Pact, sign agreement to streamline going to war
Andropov comes to power: superficial crckdn on corruption
1983.01 Major speech to Warsaw Pact: US missiles designed for war
New, RYaN indicators: poor understanding of West
Andropov denounces 'evil empire' speech"
page
89
HVA asked to do exercises
1981.08 Brezhnev meets in secret in Crema w/ Warsaw Pact, sign agreement to streamline going to war
Andropov comes to power: superficial crckdn on corruption
1983.01 Major speech to Warsaw Pact: US missiles designed for war
New, RYaN indicators: poor understanding of West
Andropov denounces 'evil empire' speech"
December 14, 2024
–
24.25%
"Reagan's 1979 visit to NORAD, no defence against nukes
Anderson proposes "protective missile system", Reagan delighted, but went quiet due to campaign
Reagan rejected MAD, often spoke of abolishing nukes
START talks
Zero-zero option
Peace movement, anti/Euromissile rally in Bonn, WG
Michael Heseltine, SD from 1983, countering peace movement
Reagan's popularity declined, Ivy League 82 had emotional impact"
page
97
Anderson proposes "protective missile system", Reagan delighted, but went quiet due to campaign
Reagan rejected MAD, often spoke of abolishing nukes
START talks
Zero-zero option
Peace movement, anti/Euromissile rally in Bonn, WG
Michael Heseltine, SD from 1983, countering peace movement
Reagan's popularity declined, Ivy League 82 had emotional impact"
December 14, 2024
–
24.5%
"Edward Teller, key player behind H-bomb in 1950s
Directing X-ray beams, 'third generation' of nukes (first atom, second hydrogen bomb).
1982.09.14: Teller visits Reagan in WH, outlining this vision. "Good evidence" it would work. Reagan impressed.
12.22: Reagan meets with joint chief's, Reagan asks if could focus on defense
1983.02.11: 2nd meeting, James. D. Watkins, delivers presentation to Reagan"
page
98
Directing X-ray beams, 'third generation' of nukes (first atom, second hydrogen bomb).
1982.09.14: Teller visits Reagan in WH, outlining this vision. "Good evidence" it would work. Reagan impressed.
12.22: Reagan meets with joint chief's, Reagan asks if could focus on defense
1983.02.11: 2nd meeting, James. D. Watkins, delivers presentation to Reagan"
December 14, 2024
–
25.0%
"Missile defense 'more moral'
Robert 'Bud' McFarlane
Admiral Watkins: 'Would it not be better if we could [...] protect, rather than avenge, our people?`
Reagan: 'Don't lose those words'
Reagan fired up, pushed staff to wr. announcement on missile defense for 03.23 address
McFarlane suggests running it by allies and Congress. Reagan ignores, worried it'd be argued to death. Ddnt mention to commission or cabinet."
page
100
Robert 'Bud' McFarlane
Admiral Watkins: 'Would it not be better if we could [...] protect, rather than avenge, our people?`
Reagan: 'Don't lose those words'
Reagan fired up, pushed staff to wr. announcement on missile defense for 03.23 address
McFarlane suggests running it by allies and Congress. Reagan ignores, worried it'd be argued to death. Ddnt mention to commission or cabinet."
December 14, 2024
–
26.25%
"SoS George Shultz, SoD Caspar Weinberger only heard shortly before, made objections.
Reagan adjusted but ignored fund. objections
Speech well received. Program dubbed 'Star Wars', NYT declares it a 'pipe dream'.
Star Wars a tenet of faith for rest of Reagan presidency
Kremlin staggered by speech: if US protected, more likely to start nuclear war
Yevkgeny Velikhov skeptical, but leadership thought it was realistic"
page
105
Reagan adjusted but ignored fund. objections
Speech well received. Program dubbed 'Star Wars', NYT declares it a 'pipe dream'.
Star Wars a tenet of faith for rest of Reagan presidency
Kremlin staggered by speech: if US protected, more likely to start nuclear war
Yevkgeny Velikhov skeptical, but leadership thought it was realistic"
December 15, 2024
–
27.25%
"LACK OF INTELLIGENCE
CIA profile on Andropov poor
William 'Bill' Casey head of CIA, member of OSS in WWII.
OSS -> CIA Truman 1947
Casey's hero 'Wild Bill' Donovan
No-nonsense, wanted aggressive approach, "wage war against USSR"
Alexander Haig's terrorism report. Casey's reaction, "blood on the floor".
All CIA stations instructed to report on covert Soviet action, many analysts cynical
80s CIA large & bureaucratic"
page
109
CIA profile on Andropov poor
William 'Bill' Casey head of CIA, member of OSS in WWII.
OSS -> CIA Truman 1947
Casey's hero 'Wild Bill' Donovan
No-nonsense, wanted aggressive approach, "wage war against USSR"
Alexander Haig's terrorism report. Casey's reaction, "blood on the floor".
All CIA stations instructed to report on covert Soviet action, many analysts cynical
80s CIA large & bureaucratic"
December 15, 2024
–
28.0%
"Casey impatient w/ reporting 2 Congress
'Reagan doctrine'
Casey led CIA: Contras in Nicaragua, Mujahideen in Afg, etc.
Little CIA info on Kremlin leaders, mainly health, but much about military, economy
Intercepting Zil imousine traffic, but they didn't talk politics
Almost no dialogue b/w US and USSR officials since Afghanistan, no way of knowing how other was feeling.
1983.93: Washington blizzard"
page
112
'Reagan doctrine'
Casey led CIA: Contras in Nicaragua, Mujahideen in Afg, etc.
Little CIA info on Kremlin leaders, mainly health, but much about military, economy
Intercepting Zil imousine traffic, but they didn't talk politics
Almost no dialogue b/w US and USSR officials since Afghanistan, no way of knowing how other was feeling.
1983.93: Washington blizzard"
December 15, 2024
–
28.5%
"1983.02: President invited by SoS George 'the Sphinx' Shultz to dinner at WH, regard. impro. of US/Soviet relations as principal task. Suggests meeting Soviet ambassador to DC, Anatoly Dobrynin.
Dobrynin Soviet ambassador for 20 yrs., respected in Kremlin and Washington. Central role in C.M. crisis, secret back channel 4 Kennedy directly w/ Khruschev. Got on well with Nixon and Kissinger, strong dislike of Carter."
page
114
Dobrynin Soviet ambassador for 20 yrs., respected in Kremlin and Washington. Central role in C.M. crisis, secret back channel 4 Kennedy directly w/ Khruschev. Got on well with Nixon and Kissinger, strong dislike of Carter."
December 15, 2024
–
28.75%
"Dobrynin horrified & puzzled by Reagan's attitude inoffice.
Regular visits to state department, main entrance w/ official, back door otherwise.
Meetings w/ Haig, only chided Moscow, no attempt at understanding.
When Shultz, Andropov replaced, he hoped 4 improvement
1983.02.15. Shultz surprise meeting w/ President"
page
115
Regular visits to state department, main entrance w/ official, back door otherwise.
Meetings w/ Haig, only chided Moscow, no attempt at understanding.
When Shultz, Andropov replaced, he hoped 4 improvement
1983.02.15. Shultz surprise meeting w/ President"
December 15, 2024
–
29.25%
"Back and forth, neither cede ground. US military bases, Soviet 3rd world aggression
Agreement Soviets to grant exit visas to Pentecostals -> neither side understood the other. To US, this was of fundamental importance, fate of individuals a vital part of political discourse.
To Soviets an irrelevance.
Shultz placed great importance on meeting, but ong term. Short term, Reagan not any smarter on his adversary."
page
117
Agreement Soviets to grant exit visas to Pentecostals -> neither side understood the other. To US, this was of fundamental importance, fate of individuals a vital part of political discourse.
To Soviets an irrelevance.
Shultz placed great importance on meeting, but ong term. Short term, Reagan not any smarter on his adversary."
December 15, 2024
–
29.75%
"DOUBLE AGENTS
Major Oleg Gordievsky - won't stand out in a crowd
Cutlure of paranoia in London embassy. Animosity.
Gordievsky's boss Arkady Guk ignorant abt. Britain, couldn't read English, poor judge of character, boastful, conspiracy theorist, alcoholi, opens up when drunk.
Everyone paranoid abt. listening devices. Computers, electric typewriters banned. "DON'T SAY NAMES OR DATES OUT LOUD""
page
119
Major Oleg Gordievsky - won't stand out in a crowd
Cutlure of paranoia in London embassy. Animosity.
Gordievsky's boss Arkady Guk ignorant abt. Britain, couldn't read English, poor judge of character, boastful, conspiracy theorist, alcoholi, opens up when drunk.
Everyone paranoid abt. listening devices. Computers, electric typewriters banned. "DON'T SAY NAMES OR DATES OUT LOUD""
December 15, 2024
–
30.0%
"Guk told agents to avoid London underground, thought advertising panels were booths where spy booths.
It was done in Moscow, the British must be doing it.
Gordievsky found intrigues on a scale unseen in Moscow. Himself aroused no suspicion as double agent of 8 yrs.
Soviet Foreign Ministry, 1963 transferred to KGB. 1966 Copenhagen residency. West was entirely new to him, USSR "vast, sterile concentration camp"."
page
120
It was done in Moscow, the British must be doing it.
Gordievsky found intrigues on a scale unseen in Moscow. Himself aroused no suspicion as double agent of 8 yrs.
Soviet Foreign Ministry, 1963 transferred to KGB. 1966 Copenhagen residency. West was entirely new to him, USSR "vast, sterile concentration camp"."
December 22, 2024
–
30.75%
"1968: USSR invasion of Cz. - Gordievsky began to hate the Communist state
Flat bugged by Danes -> dropping hints
1973 - approached by MI6: No payment, no endangering colleagues. Relief and satisfaction.
John Scarlett, case officer Joan
They met once a month. Eventually weekly.
Details of meetings.
Gordi. responsible for PR line: Contacts - old and on the margins, Gord. cynical
London residency "active measures""
page
123
Flat bugged by Danes -> dropping hints
1973 - approached by MI6: No payment, no endangering colleagues. Relief and satisfaction.
John Scarlett, case officer Joan
They met once a month. Eventually weekly.
Details of meetings.
Gordi. responsible for PR line: Contacts - old and on the margins, Gord. cynical
London residency "active measures""
December 22, 2024
–
31.75%
"Residency swamped w/ RYaN requests - told Kremlin what it wanted to hear, encouraged paranoia
Even Guk found some of these ridiculous
Gordievsky told MI6 about RYaN, they slowly realize Moscow genuinely scared of West.
Arctic fringe - 1970s: Gunvor Galtung Haavik: Arrested in 1977
KGB suspects a mole. Gordievsky in the meeting.
Arne Treholt: supplied information for money. Handler Gennadi Titov. Agent of influence"
page
127
Even Guk found some of these ridiculous
Gordievsky told MI6 about RYaN, they slowly realize Moscow genuinely scared of West.
Arctic fringe - 1970s: Gunvor Galtung Haavik: Arrested in 1977
KGB suspects a mole. Gordievsky in the meeting.
Arne Treholt: supplied information for money. Handler Gennadi Titov. Agent of influence"
December 22, 2024
–
32.5%
"Treholt arrested in 1984
HVA agent Rainer Rupp, 1968.
Kurt picks up his tab in Mainz, agrees to visit East Berlin. Recruited to hunt down Nazis. Asked to attend courses.
In brussels introduced to English girl named Ann Bowen. Rupp reveals he works for the Stasi. Controllers horrified, but she didn't report him. Married in 1972. Ann agrees to work for Stasi.
NATO headquarter job in Brussels. Rupp accepted."
page
130
HVA agent Rainer Rupp, 1968.
Kurt picks up his tab in Mainz, agrees to visit East Berlin. Recruited to hunt down Nazis. Asked to attend courses.
In brussels introduced to English girl named Ann Bowen. Rupp reveals he works for the Stasi. Controllers horrified, but she didn't report him. Married in 1972. Ann agrees to work for Stasi.
NATO headquarter job in Brussels. Rupp accepted."
January 18, 2025
–
32.75%
"Rupp excelled at NATO job.
Promoted to senior analyst in Political Affairs Directorate, involved w/ military planning
On NATO list of dtl. assessments f NATO policy.
1982 - promoted to head of Current Intelligence Group, nerve center of NATO
rcv. intel. on Warsaw Pact nations.
Rupp had access to a lot of top secret materials, even highest lvl. "Cosmic Top Secret""
page
131
Promoted to senior analyst in Political Affairs Directorate, involved w/ military planning
On NATO list of dtl. assessments f NATO policy.
1982 - promoted to head of Current Intelligence Group, nerve center of NATO
rcv. intel. on Warsaw Pact nations.
Rupp had access to a lot of top secret materials, even highest lvl. "Cosmic Top Secret""
January 18, 2025
–
33.25%
"At first Rupp took docs. home, but later took microcamera to work.
Squash bag warning system.
early 1983 - NATO MC 161 document: detailed survey of NATO vs. Warsaw Pact
HVA chief thoroughly depressed when he read it: NATO knew all eastern bloc's shortcomings, said they were locked into 'spiral of decline'."
page
133
Squash bag warning system.
early 1983 - NATO MC 161 document: detailed survey of NATO vs. Warsaw Pact
HVA chief thoroughly depressed when he read it: NATO knew all eastern bloc's shortcomings, said they were locked into 'spiral of decline'."
January 18, 2025
–
33.25%
"Rupp - 'switching modes'
March 1983 - Rupp join to assess NATO response to Strategic Defense Initiative. Sent to Washington for briefings on Star Wars. Convinced it's unfeasible, passed on to East Berlin.
Eu. countries' responses also reported back per stage.
HVA delighted to hear this, gave Rupp codename 'Topaz'. Info passed to KGB.
Through Rupp, HVA knew Pershing II and Cruise missile locations and tech specs."
page
133
March 1983 - Rupp join to assess NATO response to Strategic Defense Initiative. Sent to Washington for briefings on Star Wars. Convinced it's unfeasible, passed on to East Berlin.
Eu. countries' responses also reported back per stage.
HVA delighted to hear this, gave Rupp codename 'Topaz'. Info passed to KGB.
Through Rupp, HVA knew Pershing II and Cruise missile locations and tech specs."
January 18, 2025
–
33.5%
"HVA delighted to hear this, gave Rupp codename 'Topaz'. Info passed to KGB. Markus Wolf proud HVA was most effective service in Europe.
Through Rupp, HVA knew Pershing II and Cruise missile locations and their tech specs."
page
134
Through Rupp, HVA knew Pershing II and Cruise missile locations and their tech specs."
January 18, 2025
–
34.25%
"PSYOPS
Sea of Okhotsk
Japanese before, Since 1945 occupied by USSR. used for sub trials, and where they would launch sub nukes from.
Kurile islands important part of Soviet defense - guard exit points. Soviets regarded Sea of Okhotsk as their own.
April 1983 - USS Enterprise - Sea of Japan, annual exercises w/ South Korean Navy, then moored at Sasebo, JP"
page
137
Sea of Okhotsk
Japanese before, Since 1945 occupied by USSR. used for sub trials, and where they would launch sub nukes from.
Kurile islands important part of Soviet defense - guard exit points. Soviets regarded Sea of Okhotsk as their own.
April 1983 - USS Enterprise - Sea of Japan, annual exercises w/ South Korean Navy, then moored at Sasebo, JP"
January 18, 2025
–
34.5%
"By 1982 Soviet forces in the area grew from 18 to 47 Soviet Army divisions. Soviet Air Force in the area grew 6x.
US Pacific Fleet also grew dramatically due to Reagan's buildup."
page
138
US Pacific Fleet also grew dramatically due to Reagan's buildup."
January 18, 2025
–
34.75%
"Two weeks of FleetEx 83 - US carrier groups sailed up and down the Sea of Okhotsk parallel the Siberian coast, accompanied by bombers adn AWACs.
Navy conducted anti-sub exercises in Soviet missile sub patrol areas.
Midway shut down electronic, detected Soviet monitoring.
Invisible, Sailed South, suddenly turned up near Kamchatka, Soviets "clearly surprised".
Next day, mock attack at Zeleny military installation."
page
139
Navy conducted anti-sub exercises in Soviet missile sub patrol areas.
Midway shut down electronic, detected Soviet monitoring.
Invisible, Sailed South, suddenly turned up near Kamchatka, Soviets "clearly surprised".
Next day, mock attack at Zeleny military installation."
January 18, 2025
–
35.0%
"Two days later Kremlin issued formal complained, navy responded this was a navigational error.
FleetEx 83 planned as provocation to taunt. After Zeleny, Soviet Air Defense Force in Far East was put on high alert for the rest of spring and summer. FleetEx 83 was PSYOPS."
page
140
FleetEx 83 planned as provocation to taunt. After Zeleny, Soviet Air Defense Force in Far East was put on high alert for the rest of spring and summer. FleetEx 83 was PSYOPS."
January 18, 2025
–
35.0%
"1981 - US, UK, CA, and NOR ships led by USS Eisenhower crossed Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom Gap' without being noticed by Soviets.
Here NATO naval forces would line up to prevent Soviet Northern Fleet from breaking out of bases.
4 ships sailed north and 9 days remained near Kola peninsula, where more important Soviet bases were, used by nuclear subs.
Idea seemed to be force Soviets into defensive bastions."
page
140
Here NATO naval forces would line up to prevent Soviet Northern Fleet from breaking out of bases.
4 ships sailed north and 9 days remained near Kola peninsula, where more important Soviet bases were, used by nuclear subs.
Idea seemed to be force Soviets into defensive bastions."
January 18, 2025
–
35.25%
"Since 1960s US flew spy missions along Soviet borders to collect comint.
Operation River Joint flew up to 18 RC-135.
Always careful not to penetrate Soviet airspace. SIGINT sent back to NSA
Listened to Soviet Air Force comms. Fighter pilot send to follow them, misidentified RC-135 as B-52. Recalled to base.
This was going on for decades, but Reagan surge stepped it up. Probe Soveit defenses, keep on toes."
page
141
Operation River Joint flew up to 18 RC-135.
Always careful not to penetrate Soviet airspace. SIGINT sent back to NSA
Listened to Soviet Air Force comms. Fighter pilot send to follow them, misidentified RC-135 as B-52. Recalled to base.
This was going on for decades, but Reagan surge stepped it up. Probe Soveit defenses, keep on toes."
January 29, 2025
–
37.0%
"Fly fighters to soviet border
Exposed weakness in Soviet surveillance
Andropov issues shoot on sight order
Soviet spy program to steal technology (Line X) - US trojan horse op, Soviet gas pipeline explosion
Avel Harriman - respected in USSR
1983.05: Meeting with Andropov "first real meeting since current administration""
page
148
Exposed weakness in Soviet surveillance
Andropov issues shoot on sight order
Soviet spy program to steal technology (Line X) - US trojan horse op, Soviet gas pipeline explosion
Avel Harriman - respected in USSR
1983.05: Meeting with Andropov "first real meeting since current administration""
January 29, 2025
–
38.0%
"SHOOTDOWN
Anchorage, Alaska 1983.08.31
2 Korean Air Lines jumbos KAL 007, KAL015
Both flights due to fly in tandem to Seoul
007 had VHF malfunction
Reason for flight veering off-course?
Era before GPS, Inertial Navigation System limitations, 3 separate computer systems, data entered manually
Rulebook rarely followed
"finger-slipping"
Discrepancy detection
Wrong programming possible"
page
152
Anchorage, Alaska 1983.08.31
2 Korean Air Lines jumbos KAL 007, KAL015
Both flights due to fly in tandem to Seoul
007 had VHF malfunction
Reason for flight veering off-course?
Era before GPS, Inertial Navigation System limitations, 3 separate computer systems, data entered manually
Rulebook rarely followed
"finger-slipping"
Discrepancy detection
Wrong programming possible"
January 30, 2025
–
40.0%
"Departure time put back 30min
Captain Chun makes strange modifications to his flight plan, discrepancy of manifest, took on more fuel
KAL 007 takes off from Anchorage 4 am, all comms since departure were w/ copilot Son Dong-hui
Slowly drifts miles off course, crossing land
Cobra Call, RC-135, soviets spooked, 007 passes into airspace, Soviets hesitate, comms ignored
Deputy commander woken up and informed"
page
160
Captain Chun makes strange modifications to his flight plan, discrepancy of manifest, took on more fuel
KAL 007 takes off from Anchorage 4 am, all comms since departure were w/ copilot Son Dong-hui
Slowly drifts miles off course, crossing land
Cobra Call, RC-135, soviets spooked, 007 passes into airspace, Soviets hesitate, comms ignored
Deputy commander woken up and informed"
February 1, 2025
–
40.5%
"Soviet radars pick up 007 on Sakhalin at Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk
12m later Soviet fighters scrambled
Move to right interpreted as evidence this was military
Soviet Air Defense command at Kharbarovsk alerted
Misawa listening station
'snap-ons'
JP listening station at Wakkanai, also secret US post
Lead pilot of scrambled soviet SU-15s: Major Gennady Ossipovich: Was scrambled daily (River Joint or Cobra Ball), exhausted"
page
162
12m later Soviet fighters scrambled
Move to right interpreted as evidence this was military
Soviet Air Defense command at Kharbarovsk alerted
Misawa listening station
'snap-ons'
JP listening station at Wakkanai, also secret US post
Lead pilot of scrambled soviet SU-15s: Major Gennady Ossipovich: Was scrambled daily (River Joint or Cobra Ball), exhausted"
February 1, 2025
–
41.25%
"Told to test fire his guns, lock missiles on target.
Deputy commander wanted to get authorisation from Moscow
No secure link, had to cross another building to place a call.
Attempts to contact Marshal Alexandr Kardunov, US monitored the call, snap-ons
Ossipovich convinced 007 spy plane disguised as civilian airliner, tries to attract attention. Fire across aircraft, but no tracers."
page
165
Deputy commander wanted to get authorisation from Moscow
No secure link, had to cross another building to place a call.
Attempts to contact Marshal Alexandr Kardunov, US monitored the call, snap-ons
Ossipovich convinced 007 spy plane disguised as civilian airliner, tries to attract attention. Fire across aircraft, but no tracers."
February 1, 2025
–
42.0%
"007 crew clearly not looking out for aircraft nearby, concentrating on ascending to new height
3:26 AM - Ossipovich ordered to fire
Co-pilot calls Tokyo Air Traffic control, no mayday signal, just sitrep. Last words heard. Few minutes from leaving USSR airspace.
Japanese fishermen witnesses
Tokyo: Confusion 90m hesitation, 5AM misssing airliner alert, search and rescue missions.
Wakkanai was listening"
page
168
3:26 AM - Ossipovich ordered to fire
Co-pilot calls Tokyo Air Traffic control, no mayday signal, just sitrep. Last words heard. Few minutes from leaving USSR airspace.
Japanese fishermen witnesses
Tokyo: Confusion 90m hesitation, 5AM misssing airliner alert, search and rescue missions.
Wakkanai was listening"
February 1, 2025
–
43.0%
"OUTCRY
Missing airliner report 08.31
Most senior white house staff on holiday
Shultz alerted at 6.30
3 AM at Misawa, radio analyst picks up comms
5.30: JP Transport Ministry reports 007 missing
Wakkanai working to put together what happened, reports LMF to Misawa.
8.00 Tokyo: Misawa files CRITIC to NSA
State Department concerned
Anxious relatives gathering at Kimpo, KAL says plane landed at Sakhalin."
page
172
Missing airliner report 08.31
Most senior white house staff on holiday
Shultz alerted at 6.30
3 AM at Misawa, radio analyst picks up comms
5.30: JP Transport Ministry reports 007 missing
Wakkanai working to put together what happened, reports LMF to Misawa.
8.00 Tokyo: Misawa files CRITIC to NSA
State Department concerned
Anxious relatives gathering at Kimpo, KAL says plane landed at Sakhalin."
February 1, 2025
–
43.25%
"Misawa struggled to translate poor quality recording, Wakkanai instructed to get to JP station and ask to borrow their recordings
Misawa translates 'Target is destroyed'
Passed this with more CRITICs.
CIA, DIA conclude Soviets shot down airliner
Pentagon talk of scrambling jets, never happened
MG James Pfautz
Air Force persuaded it was accident, completely out of line w/ everyone else thought soviet brutality."
page
173
Misawa translates 'Target is destroyed'
Passed this with more CRITICs.
CIA, DIA conclude Soviets shot down airliner
Pentagon talk of scrambling jets, never happened
MG James Pfautz
Air Force persuaded it was accident, completely out of line w/ everyone else thought soviet brutality."
February 3, 2025
–
44.75%
"George Schultz condemns attack
Larry Speakes reveals recordings
Some SIGINT people were shocked int. was used for politics
Silence and denial from Moscow
Reagan pleased w/ Schultz, California address
Public outrage. Congress briefed on Ossipovich recording
Air Force Intelligence had different view, William Casey makes clear to Reagan, both ignored
No retaliation, Madrid meeting upcoming"
page
179
Larry Speakes reveals recordings
Some SIGINT people were shocked int. was used for politics
Silence and denial from Moscow
Reagan pleased w/ Schultz, California address
Public outrage. Congress briefed on Ossipovich recording
Air Force Intelligence had different view, William Casey makes clear to Reagan, both ignored
No retaliation, Madrid meeting upcoming"
February 8, 2025
–
45.75%
"09.01 Yuri Andropov informed, not happy w/ military
Ready to admit mistake, Ustinov talked him out of it
Dobrynin left for Washington to handle
09.02 Politburo meeting - unanimous Soviets not at fault
No apology in Soviet media
09.05 Reagan calls it 'massacre'
09.0 Ossipovich recordings shown at UN: Jeane Kirkpatrick
JP PM embarrassed
09.09 Kremlin response: Marshal Nikolai Ogarkov press conf. on CNN"
page
183
Ready to admit mistake, Ustinov talked him out of it
Dobrynin left for Washington to handle
09.02 Politburo meeting - unanimous Soviets not at fault
No apology in Soviet media
09.05 Reagan calls it 'massacre'
09.0 Ossipovich recordings shown at UN: Jeane Kirkpatrick
JP PM embarrassed
09.09 Kremlin response: Marshal Nikolai Ogarkov press conf. on CNN"
February 8, 2025
–
46.25%
"New part of SU-15 dialog: Ossipovich says he fired bursts across the bows of 007
Another, fabricated recording: Ossipovich says 007 flying w/o navigation lights
Madrid meeting confrontational, Gromyko lost his cool
NY, NJ governors ban Gromyko's aircraft in violation of US guarantees
Public interpretation out of line with int. assessments, questions begin to leak to press"
page
185
Another, fabricated recording: Ossipovich says 007 flying w/o navigation lights
Madrid meeting confrontational, Gromyko lost his cool
NY, NJ governors ban Gromyko's aircraft in violation of US guarantees
Public interpretation out of line with int. assessments, questions begin to leak to press"
February 8, 2025
–
47.0%
"William Casey: Enough debate
09.28 Andropov's public statement on shootdown: Maintains Soviet line: Illusions about better policy b/w US and USSR dispelled completely.
Soviets thought Reagan capable of almost anything
US notions: Soviets don't value human life, could shoot down civie plane w/o regret or remorse
Soviet leadership: Believed deliberate US provocation
Miscalculation lead closer to nuclear war"
page
188
09.28 Andropov's public statement on shootdown: Maintains Soviet line: Illusions about better policy b/w US and USSR dispelled completely.
Soviets thought Reagan capable of almost anything
US notions: Soviets don't value human life, could shoot down civie plane w/o regret or remorse
Soviet leadership: Believed deliberate US provocation
Miscalculation lead closer to nuclear war"
March 1, 2025
–
47.5%
"79.11.09 , 3AM: NS Advisor Zbigniew Brezinski called at home by military assistant William Odom: 220 soviet missiles launched, not verified, later 2200 reported by NORAD, third call from Odom verifies false alarm
False alarms common during Cold War.
1957.07. B-47 bomber crash at RAF LAkenheath, causing fires threatening nukes"
page
190
False alarms common during Cold War.
1957.07. B-47 bomber crash at RAF LAkenheath, causing fires threatening nukes"
March 1, 2025
–
47.75%
"1966.01.17: B-52 bomber routine mission out of Seymour Johnson AF Base in NC
Part of Operation Chrome Dome: 12 B-52 bombers constantly airborne 24/7 near Soviet perimeter.
2 mid-air refuelings from KC-135 tanker from Spain. Collides with B-52 bomber, all four ofKC-135, 3 of 7 of B-52 dead.
3 bombs land near Palomares, two detonated, nuclear cloud.
Several protested US flying over their territory -> abandon op"
page
191
Part of Operation Chrome Dome: 12 B-52 bombers constantly airborne 24/7 near Soviet perimeter.
2 mid-air refuelings from KC-135 tanker from Spain. Collides with B-52 bomber, all four ofKC-135, 3 of 7 of B-52 dead.
3 bombs land near Palomares, two detonated, nuclear cloud.
Several protested US flying over their territory -> abandon op"
March 1, 2025
–
48.25%
"1962.10.25: Duluth, MN: AF sentry spots intruder climbing fence, sounds alarm
Volk Field Airbase WI: Wrong alert - for nuclear war. Pilots scrambled, commander orders car to abort take-offs.
1962.10.27: Black Saturday Moorestown NJ, software test tape inserted when radars pick up sat. from Cubad dir. Operators 'confused', assumed missile launch. NORAD notified. Radar operators realize mistake before Pres. informed."
page
193
Volk Field Airbase WI: Wrong alert - for nuclear war. Pilots scrambled, commander orders car to abort take-offs.
1962.10.27: Black Saturday Moorestown NJ, software test tape inserted when radars pick up sat. from Cubad dir. Operators 'confused', assumed missile launch. NORAD notified. Radar operators realize mistake before Pres. informed."
March 1, 2025
–
48.75%
"Sepurkhov-15: secure compound 80 miles south of Moscow. Principal Soviet early warning station.
Radar limited by Earth curvature, US launches range extending satellites
Soviet tech lagged behind since Sputnik in 1957
Early 1980s: Soviets rush to catch up, create satellite network "Oko" to monitor US "Minuteman" Missiles.
Scientists rushed by leaders to complete well before it was ready. Provided 12 min. warning."
page
195
Radar limited by Earth curvature, US launches range extending satellites
Soviet tech lagged behind since Sputnik in 1957
Early 1980s: Soviets rush to catch up, create satellite network "Oko" to monitor US "Minuteman" Missiles.
Scientists rushed by leaders to complete well before it was ready. Provided 12 min. warning."
March 1, 2025
–
49.0%
"1983.09.26, 19:00: Lieutenant-Colonel Stanislav Petrov arrives at compound's command center, taking over a shift. Primarily computer engineer, Dep. Chief of Department of Military Algorithms, uslly worked software.
00:15 : Launch alarm. Petrov calls on teams to report back: Nobody sees signs of missile.
Petrov decides false alarm, orders restart.
Petrov on phone when system reboots, alarm again. Reports false alarm."
page
196
00:15 : Launch alarm. Petrov calls on teams to report back: Nobody sees signs of missile.
Petrov decides false alarm, orders restart.
Petrov on phone when system reboots, alarm again. Reports false alarm."
March 1, 2025
–
49.75%
"Interpreters continue to report no sign of missiles.
Petrov had less confidence in the systems than other officers.
When no other system picked up the launch, Petrov vindicated. Alert caused by freak reflections of sunrays off clouds.
Incident ended Petrov's career, dismissed on pretext.
After cw, Petrov lived a wretched life in a tower block. Award from Kofi Annan."
page
199
Petrov had less confidence in the systems than other officers.
When no other system picked up the launch, Petrov vindicated. Alert caused by freak reflections of sunrays off clouds.
Incident ended Petrov's career, dismissed on pretext.
After cw, Petrov lived a wretched life in a tower block. Award from Kofi Annan."
March 1, 2025
–
50.25%
"Autumn 1983: Two powers 18.4k warheads, subs, heavy bombers fully ready.
US fully confident, USSR anxious about their tech due to FleetEx83, KAL007 and Sepurkhov-15. Made Andropov more apprehensive."
page
201
US fully confident, USSR anxious about their tech due to FleetEx83, KAL007 and Sepurkhov-15. Made Andropov more apprehensive."
March 8, 2025
–
50.75%
"Summer 1982: Reagan intervenes in Lebanon
Iran lost as ally after Shah deposed
Egypt: assassination of Anwar Sadat
Large Palestinian community in S. Lebanon since Nakba (1948)
Six day war - 1967
PLO emerges led by Yasser Arafat
Munich Olympics Massacre in 1972
PLO evicted from Jordan -> Lebanon, state within state
IL Prime MInister Menachem Begin
Irgun
1982.06.06 - IL invaded Lebanon, at Beirut in 4 days"
page
203
Iran lost as ally after Shah deposed
Egypt: assassination of Anwar Sadat
Large Palestinian community in S. Lebanon since Nakba (1948)
Six day war - 1967
PLO emerges led by Yasser Arafat
Munich Olympics Massacre in 1972
PLO evicted from Jordan -> Lebanon, state within state
IL Prime MInister Menachem Begin
Irgun
1982.06.06 - IL invaded Lebanon, at Beirut in 4 days"
March 8, 2025
–
51.0%
"US gave enormous aid to IL
Every president since Truman supported
Zionist lobby in US very effective
Soviets military support to Libya, but especially Syria (Hafez al-Assad).
PLO fighters trained in Balashika
1973 - October War/Yom Kippur War, US on DEFCON 3
Kremlin accuses US of complicity in IL invasion"
page
204
Every president since Truman supported
Zionist lobby in US very effective
Soviets military support to Libya, but especially Syria (Hafez al-Assad).
PLO fighters trained in Balashika
1973 - October War/Yom Kippur War, US on DEFCON 3
Kremlin accuses US of complicity in IL invasion"
March 8, 2025
–
51.25%
"1982.06.96 - Menachem Begin and def. minister Ariel Sharon order full-scale invasion of s. Lebanon
1982.06.09 - IL Air Force confrontation with Syrian air force, classic proxy engagement
IL victory
IDF repeatedly shelled Beirut, images came out of civ. casualties
State Department Negotiator Philip Habib
1982.08.01 - Black Sunday
Resumed again on the 12th. Habib called Schultz to tell Begin to stop."
page
205
1982.06.09 - IL Air Force confrontation with Syrian air force, classic proxy engagement
IL victory
IDF repeatedly shelled Beirut, images came out of civ. casualties
State Department Negotiator Philip Habib
1982.08.01 - Black Sunday
Resumed again on the 12th. Habib called Schultz to tell Begin to stop."
March 8, 2025
–
51.5%
"Reagan put in a call, he was very angry. Told Begin to stop shelling or else, specifically used the word 'holocaust'.
Begin reluctantly calls it off.
Doctors say for every soldier there were four civs.
Multinational Force sent to Lebanon: US marines, French and Italian troops.
PLO leave for Tunisia in blaze of publicity."
page
206
Begin reluctantly calls it off.
Doctors say for every soldier there were four civs.
Multinational Force sent to Lebanon: US marines, French and Italian troops.
PLO leave for Tunisia in blaze of publicity."
March 8, 2025
–
51.75%
"1982.09.16-17: IDF troops allow Christian Phalangist militia to enter Palestinian refugee camps of Sabra and Shatila.
They carried out a massacre: nearly 2k men, womena nd children killed.
Israelis looked on and did nothing, refused to allow civilians to leave.
Worldwide revulsion at pictures of piles of corpses.
Israeli inquiry condemns forces and leadership, forcing resignation of Sharon as def. minister."
page
207
They carried out a massacre: nearly 2k men, womena nd children killed.
Israelis looked on and did nothing, refused to allow civilians to leave.
Worldwide revulsion at pictures of piles of corpses.
Israeli inquiry condemns forces and leadership, forcing resignation of Sharon as def. minister."
March 8, 2025
–
52.25%
"1982.09.19~: Multinational force sent back to Lebanon. Reagan put pressure on IL and Syria to withdraw.
1983.04.18: car bomb detonates at US embassy in Beirut, US responds by shelling paramilitary in hills above Beirut
1983.10.23~: Suicide bomber drove explosive truck into marine barracks at Beirut airport, 241 dead. Minutes later another bomber killed 58 French soldiers. Work of Hezbollah.
US bases on high alert."
page
209
1983.04.18: car bomb detonates at US embassy in Beirut, US responds by shelling paramilitary in hills above Beirut
1983.10.23~: Suicide bomber drove explosive truck into marine barracks at Beirut airport, 241 dead. Minutes later another bomber killed 58 French soldiers. Work of Hezbollah.
US bases on high alert."
March 8, 2025
–
52.75%
"Late October: request to intervene against Grenada. Granada wanted to lengthen its runways -> fear of soviet weapons recvd.
Reagan went ahead without informing London.
1983.10.25: Rangers and Marines lando n Grenada. Lengthen runways plan was turned out to be for latest civil airliners to boost tourism.
Margaret Thatcher enraged"
page
211
Reagan went ahead without informing London.
1983.10.25: Rangers and Marines lando n Grenada. Lengthen runways plan was turned out to be for latest civil airliners to boost tourism.
Margaret Thatcher enraged"
March 8, 2025
–
53.0%
"Foreign secretary Sir Geoffrey Howe announced on 24th no intervention is likely.
If UK not consulted on Grenada, would they be consulted on firing nukes?"
page
212
If UK not consulted on Grenada, would they be consulted on firing nukes?"
March 9, 2025
–
53.5%
"Summer 1983: Andropov's health in decline
During KAL 007 went to luxury villa near Simferopol.
Kidneys failing, weak heart
Dialysis started, Andropov kept up workload
1983.03: Politburo discusses concerns in secret"
page
214
During KAL 007 went to luxury villa near Simferopol.
Kidneys failing, weak heart
Dialysis started, Andropov kept up workload
1983.03: Politburo discusses concerns in secret"
March 9, 2025
–
54.0%
"Four weeks, denounces US 'militaristic course' in Pravda interview,
has episode 2 days later. Minor operation carried out successfully,
but Andropov so weak the post-op wound would not heal.
Chazov: 'Andropov began to realize he was not going to get any better.'
Andropov regularly converses with Chrenenko, Ustinov, Gromyko, Gorbachev
Must have been terrorized by all that happened."
page
216
has episode 2 days later. Minor operation carried out successfully,
but Andropov so weak the post-op wound would not heal.
Chazov: 'Andropov began to realize he was not going to get any better.'
Andropov regularly converses with Chrenenko, Ustinov, Gromyko, Gorbachev
Must have been terrorized by all that happened."
March 9, 2025
–
54.25%
"1983.10: KGB reports situation got worse: US military gone on high alert, possibly preparation to launch nukes.
1983.10.23-25: Soviets pick up increased comms b/w London and Washington
Lubyanka Perspex filled in
Soviet embassy in London frequently called on KGB to go all-out looking for signs of war.
Gordievsky in disbelief, reported to MI6 minder."
page
217
1983.10.23-25: Soviets pick up increased comms b/w London and Washington
Lubyanka Perspex filled in
Soviet embassy in London frequently called on KGB to go all-out looking for signs of war.
Gordievsky in disbelief, reported to MI6 minder."
March 9, 2025
–
54.75%
"Sir Geoffrey Howe: Foreign Secretary since 1983.06.
Deputy secretary asked for meeting 1:1, asked to read letter in place, make no notes.
Howe convinced Soviets believed West was plotting overthrow.
Robert Gates, CIA deputy director: 1983.09.27 report to Schultz, trend in relationship is downhill,
every opportunity to improve killed
'It will take considerable skill and luck just to keep things from getting worse'"
page
219
Deputy secretary asked for meeting 1:1, asked to read letter in place, make no notes.
Howe convinced Soviets believed West was plotting overthrow.
Robert Gates, CIA deputy director: 1983.09.27 report to Schultz, trend in relationship is downhill,
every opportunity to improve killed
'It will take considerable skill and luck just to keep things from getting worse'"
March 9, 2025
–
55.25%
"End of 1983.10: Andropov prepares to return to Moscow, determined to carry on to the end.
Proposed China brought into campaign against Pershing deployment, more cautious policy towards Syria, ensure no direct involvement in Lebanon.
Proposed sham elections.
Andropov fails to appear in public for time, people told he's on extended vacation.
Rumors about his health flourished.
Bedridden, filled with concerns about US."
page
221
Proposed China brought into campaign against Pershing deployment, more cautious policy towards Syria, ensure no direct involvement in Lebanon.
Proposed sham elections.
Andropov fails to appear in public for time, people told he's on extended vacation.
Rumors about his health flourished.
Bedridden, filled with concerns about US."
March 12, 2025
–
56.5%
"ABLE ARCHER 83
Part of larger NATO exercise group Autumn Forge 83
Scenario of losing conventional war with Warsaw Pact, escalating to use of nukes
Played out in nuclear vault next to SHAPE
Reports coming in according to script
Day 2: scenario warsaw pact deploys chemical weapons, reports sometimes conflicting, no integrated database.
Eugene Gay
'Concerned one day real weapons used'"
page
226
Part of larger NATO exercise group Autumn Forge 83
Scenario of losing conventional war with Warsaw Pact, escalating to use of nukes
Played out in nuclear vault next to SHAPE
Reports coming in according to script
Day 2: scenario warsaw pact deploys chemical weapons, reports sometimes conflicting, no integrated database.
Eugene Gay
'Concerned one day real weapons used'"
March 12, 2025
–
56.75%
"Soviet listening stations follow with increasing concern.
Radio signals prefixed with "exercise" message.
Soviets grew doubtful if this was true, had their own plans of invading under guise of military exercise.
Panic spreads in KGB center in Moscow, frantic messages to KGB residencies, agents reported what they wanted to believe.
1983.11.06: Urgent msg to all residencies, timetable for likely first strike by West."
page
227
Radio signals prefixed with "exercise" message.
Soviets grew doubtful if this was true, had their own plans of invading under guise of military exercise.
Panic spreads in KGB center in Moscow, frantic messages to KGB residencies, agents reported what they wanted to believe.
1983.11.06: Urgent msg to all residencies, timetable for likely first strike by West."
March 12, 2025
–
57.5%
"KGB gives out further list of indications that countdown has begun
To those in embassies there was no sense of alarm, life carried out as normal.
1983.11.07: scenario continues to worsen, massive casualties, goes to DEFCON 1.
11.08: Request political leaders for nuke authorization
Reagan and Thatcher decided not to participate, Reagan very publicly leaves for Japan."
page
230
To those in embassies there was no sense of alarm, life carried out as normal.
1983.11.07: scenario continues to worsen, massive casualties, goes to DEFCON 1.
11.08: Request political leaders for nuke authorization
Reagan and Thatcher decided not to participate, Reagan very publicly leaves for Japan."
March 12, 2025
–
58.25%
"NATO changed comms codes, which it has never done in any previous Able Archer. Soviets alarmed, thought it was becoming the real thing.
Reagan and Thatcher did not participate in exercise, Reagan understood the effect it would have on Soviets.
Substitutes responded affirmatively to nuke requests.
War gamers started thinking "what if"
Soviet int. and military seriously rattled. Panic in KGB center in Moscow."
page
233
Reagan and Thatcher did not participate in exercise, Reagan understood the effect it would have on Soviets.
Substitutes responded affirmatively to nuke requests.
War gamers started thinking "what if"
Soviet int. and military seriously rattled. Panic in KGB center in Moscow."
March 15, 2025
–
58.75%
"COMBAT ALERT
Kuntsevo Clinic/Kremlin Hospital
Best Cardiology in USSR
Yevgeny Chazov director
Essential who is being treated not known - security at qrt. mile intervals
Statements and bulletins continue to be issued in the name of Andropov
1983.10: Andropov returns to Moscow from Crimea, goes straight to Kuntsevo
Clear he was growing frailer - Jockeying for power begins"
page
235
Kuntsevo Clinic/Kremlin Hospital
Best Cardiology in USSR
Yevgeny Chazov director
Essential who is being treated not known - security at qrt. mile intervals
Statements and bulletins continue to be issued in the name of Andropov
1983.10: Andropov returns to Moscow from Crimea, goes straight to Kuntsevo
Clear he was growing frailer - Jockeying for power begins"
March 15, 2025
–
59.25%
"Politburo members met Andropov at Kuntsevo.
Among them Gorbachev - genuinely fond of his mentor. Andropov 'sensed the intrigue' from people visiting.
Andropov's favorites: Ustinov, Ogarkov
They felt they were in command of a great superpower.
Robert Gates anything questioning their legitimacy got under their skin
1983.10: RYaN ticked nearly all boxes. Growing alarm."
page
237
Among them Gorbachev - genuinely fond of his mentor. Andropov 'sensed the intrigue' from people visiting.
Andropov's favorites: Ustinov, Ogarkov
They felt they were in command of a great superpower.
Robert Gates anything questioning their legitimacy got under their skin
1983.10: RYaN ticked nearly all boxes. Growing alarm."
March 15, 2025
–
59.25%
"Peace rallies and sponsored 'peace' classes
Civil defense measures increased - air raid drills
Reagan described in media as 'reckless criminal' - compared to Hitler
Stalin's 1941 speech invoked. Some citizens may have been skeptical."
page
237
Civil defense measures increased - air raid drills
Reagan described in media as 'reckless criminal' - compared to Hitler
Stalin's 1941 speech invoked. Some citizens may have been skeptical."
March 17, 2025
–
60.0%
"83.11.05: Politburo's Gregory Romanov remarks
Soviet military sped up response time:
SS-20s ready to full alert in less than 8 hours
Aircraft ready in 30 minutes
In 1983 all military support for harvest terminated
'Launch Under Attack' policy
Outside the bubble some would not have believed Western strike was possible:
Andrei Gromyko, advised restraint to Andropov
Paranoia became a feature of Soviet leadership"
page
240
Soviet military sped up response time:
SS-20s ready to full alert in less than 8 hours
Aircraft ready in 30 minutes
In 1983 all military support for harvest terminated
'Launch Under Attack' policy
Outside the bubble some would not have believed Western strike was possible:
Andrei Gromyko, advised restraint to Andropov
Paranoia became a feature of Soviet leadership"
March 22, 2025
–
60.75%
"US: Nuclear Football
Soviets: 'cheggets' system. 3 people could order launch: Andropov, Defence Minister Ustinov, Chief of General STaff Ogarkov.
1983.11.08: Lot of traffic at Kuntsevo.
Layers of Soviet nuclear forces
Two officers in command of a bunker.
Launch protocols w/ envelope, junior/senior officer.
Two men lived together, sometimes ordered to launch but not told if exercise.
Cap. Viktor Tkachenko's story"
page
243
Soviets: 'cheggets' system. 3 people could order launch: Andropov, Defence Minister Ustinov, Chief of General STaff Ogarkov.
1983.11.08: Lot of traffic at Kuntsevo.
Layers of Soviet nuclear forces
Two officers in command of a bunker.
Launch protocols w/ envelope, junior/senior officer.
Two men lived together, sometimes ordered to launch but not told if exercise.
Cap. Viktor Tkachenko's story"
March 22, 2025
–
61.5%
"Tkachenko said he wouldn't have hesitated.
Med-range nukes also on alert.
Normally only 10% of SS-20s on the field, now at least 50%
GRU kept commanders up to date
Constant communication, greatest fear too much hesitation
Ivan Yesin interview
Soviet Navy's Admiral Georgi Gorshikov
Nuclear sub. fleet: Long term residency, assault after initial war
Sergei Lokot interview"
page
246
Med-range nukes also on alert.
Normally only 10% of SS-20s on the field, now at least 50%
GRU kept commanders up to date
Constant communication, greatest fear too much hesitation
Ivan Yesin interview
Soviet Navy's Admiral Georgi Gorshikov
Nuclear sub. fleet: Long term residency, assault after initial war
Sergei Lokot interview"
March 22, 2025
–
62.25%
"Soviet strategic bombing force not so big, Soviets relied mostly on missiles.
Nuke squadrons deployed to East Germany in anticipation of Pershing II from West.
Tupolev Tu-22M NATO code 'Backfire'
The new models were improved.
Col. Maxim Devetyarov: Backfire navigator
Constant checks on air readiness.
Many bombers on combat alert
Some even on 'strip alert'.
US satellites picked up Soviet interceptors on runways."
page
249
Nuke squadrons deployed to East Germany in anticipation of Pershing II from West.
Tupolev Tu-22M NATO code 'Backfire'
The new models were improved.
Col. Maxim Devetyarov: Backfire navigator
Constant checks on air readiness.
Many bombers on combat alert
Some even on 'strip alert'.
US satellites picked up Soviet interceptors on runways."
March 22, 2025
–
63.0%
"1983.11.09: NATO reaches most dramatic phase in war game: Nuke use approved
Soviet leaders convinced nuclear war imminent.
KGB officers send back alarming reports, eager to please.
KGB and GRU send out Top Secret 'flash' telegrams to residencies.
Gordievsky thought panic absurd.
Agent 'Topaz' also contacted via flash. He saw no preparations for war.
Calculator spy device to transmit codes over phone lines."
page
252
Soviet leaders convinced nuclear war imminent.
KGB officers send back alarming reports, eager to please.
KGB and GRU send out Top Secret 'flash' telegrams to residencies.
Gordievsky thought panic absurd.
Agent 'Topaz' also contacted via flash. He saw no preparations for war.
Calculator spy device to transmit codes over phone lines."
March 29, 2025
–
64.0%
"Lt. General Leonard Perroots receives reports of inc. Soviet air activity. Reports of nuke bombers on standby, of fighters on strip alert.
Perroots not alarmed, did nothing.
Soviet leaders sat out the night.
In the West no awareness of panic.
1983.11.11: Able Archer 83 concludes
CIA satellites did pick up nuke bombers and strip alert planes
Robert Gates quote"
page
256
Perroots not alarmed, did nothing.
Soviet leaders sat out the night.
In the West no awareness of panic.
1983.11.11: Able Archer 83 concludes
CIA satellites did pick up nuke bombers and strip alert planes
Robert Gates quote"
March 29, 2025
–
65.0%
"REALLY SCARY
Staggering intelligence failures, KGB unquestioning, CIA had no insight into paranoia
CIA and NSA period of denial
CIA directorate: simply a ploy
Clearest hint at danger: Oleg Gordievsky to John Scarlett of MI6: sequence of messages from KGB
Geoffrey Howe realized their importance.
Thatcher tried to warn allies, Washington not convinced.
Oliver Wright's meeting with Lawrence Eagleburger"
page
260
Staggering intelligence failures, KGB unquestioning, CIA had no insight into paranoia
CIA and NSA period of denial
CIA directorate: simply a ploy
Clearest hint at danger: Oleg Gordievsky to John Scarlett of MI6: sequence of messages from KGB
Geoffrey Howe realized their importance.
Thatcher tried to warn allies, Washington not convinced.
Oliver Wright's meeting with Lawrence Eagleburger"
March 29, 2025
–
65.75%
"Bud McFarlange, Nat. Sec. advisor was impressed, his concerns got through to Reagan
Reagan sees The Day After
Reagan agrees with George Schultz to set up group on Soviet affairs for possibility of new comm. channels.
Reagan writes in diary Soviets "so paranoid about being attacked".
Reagan asks Arthur Hartman, ambassdr to USSR if Soviet leaders really scared.
1984.06: William Casey memo: stunning array of indicators"
page
263
Reagan sees The Day After
Reagan agrees with George Schultz to set up group on Soviet affairs for possibility of new comm. channels.
Reagan writes in diary Soviets "so paranoid about being attacked".
Reagan asks Arthur Hartman, ambassdr to USSR if Soviet leaders really scared.
1984.06: William Casey memo: stunning array of indicators"
March 29, 2025
–
66.25%
"1984.02: Andropov dies from kidney disease
Succession goes to Konstantin Chernenko, 72, frail and ill, chain smoker, lung disease
Thatcher attends funeral. Received "tremendous welcome" in Hungary.
Stood near Yasser Arafat, PLO leader. Made sure to make no eye contact.
Thatcher "unimpressed" w/ Chernenko.
Reagan up for election, campaign upbeat, felt America was stronger, but deeply concerned w/ Able Archer"
page
265
Succession goes to Konstantin Chernenko, 72, frail and ill, chain smoker, lung disease
Thatcher attends funeral. Received "tremendous welcome" in Hungary.
Stood near Yasser Arafat, PLO leader. Made sure to make no eye contact.
Thatcher "unimpressed" w/ Chernenko.
Reagan up for election, campaign upbeat, felt America was stronger, but deeply concerned w/ Able Archer"
April 5, 2025
–
67.5%
"Reagan reelection campaign speech: Must talk w/ Soveits
1984.08.11: Reagan radio address mishap
USSR issues statement, Soviet Pacific fleet similar message
1984.03: Reagan 7 page letter to Chernenko
Soviet boycott of LA Olympics
1984.08: National Intelligence Council concerned w/ Soviet influence in elections
Pierre Trudeau reports Gorbachev tipped to succeed Chernenko
Gorbachev invited to UK"
page
270
1984.08.11: Reagan radio address mishap
USSR issues statement, Soviet Pacific fleet similar message
1984.03: Reagan 7 page letter to Chernenko
Soviet boycott of LA Olympics
1984.08: National Intelligence Council concerned w/ Soviet influence in elections
Pierre Trudeau reports Gorbachev tipped to succeed Chernenko
Gorbachev invited to UK"
April 5, 2025
–
68.5%
"London KGB swamped w/ requests for info that would help Gorbachev
Gordievsky shown Howe's briefing notes for Gorb. meeting, Gordievsky passed on as note of advice. Also briefed UK on Gorb. requests.
1984.12.16: Gorbachev visits UK, he and his wife Raisa very impressive
Meeting w/ Thatcher at Chequers. They argued politics, but agreed on peace.
After lunch smaller group debate.
Thatcher ended up liking Gorbachev"
page
274
Gordievsky shown Howe's briefing notes for Gorb. meeting, Gordievsky passed on as note of advice. Also briefed UK on Gorb. requests.
1984.12.16: Gorbachev visits UK, he and his wife Raisa very impressive
Meeting w/ Thatcher at Chequers. They argued politics, but agreed on peace.
After lunch smaller group debate.
Thatcher ended up liking Gorbachev"
April 5, 2025
–
69.5%
"1985.03.10: Chernenko dies, Politburo meet.
Candidates for succession were Gorbachev and Viktor Grishin
Andrei Gromyko cuts deal w/ Gorbachev for endorsement
After meeting, Gorbachev got home at 4 am and walked in garden w/ Raisa.
SPY WARS
Aldrich Ames: mid-ranking CIA officer: extensive knowledge of CIA ops in USSR. Offered to supply info to KGB. Just divorced, alimony would bankrupt him. Expensive gf."
page
278
Candidates for succession were Gorbachev and Viktor Grishin
Andrei Gromyko cuts deal w/ Gorbachev for endorsement
After meeting, Gorbachev got home at 4 am and walked in garden w/ Raisa.
SPY WARS
Aldrich Ames: mid-ranking CIA officer: extensive knowledge of CIA ops in USSR. Offered to supply info to KGB. Just divorced, alimony would bankrupt him. Expensive gf."
April 5, 2025
–
69.75%
"Revealed at least 25 KGB/GRU double agents, at least 10 executed, another committed suicide.
For 8 years the CIA failed to find him, Ames arrested in 1994, lived a lifestyle beyond his means.
1985.05: Gordievsky immediately recalled to Moscow "urgently".
Urgent meeting with MI6, they suggested going and finding out KGB plans for Britain. 2 days later Gordievsky boards plane for Moscow."
page
279
For 8 years the CIA failed to find him, Ames arrested in 1994, lived a lifestyle beyond his means.
1985.05: Gordievsky immediately recalled to Moscow "urgently".
Urgent meeting with MI6, they suggested going and finding out KGB plans for Britain. 2 days later Gordievsky boards plane for Moscow."
April 5, 2025
–
70.5%
"Gordievsky held up at passport control. At his apartment immediately knew someone was there, probably searched and bugged.
KGB colleagues, normally friendly, were distant
Few days later called by Viktor Grushko to bungalow kept for KGB visitors to Moscow. Here he was drugged and questioned. He had taken MI16 pep pills that morning.
Decided he could remain in KGB but not return to London."
page
282
KGB colleagues, normally friendly, were distant
Few days later called by Viktor Grushko to bungalow kept for KGB visitors to Moscow. Here he was drugged and questioned. He had taken MI16 pep pills that morning.
Decided he could remain in KGB but not return to London."
April 5, 2025
–
71.0%
"Sent to sanatorium where he was watched, decided he had to get out.
Adolf Tolkachev the ' Billion Dollar Spy'.
1985.06.13: CIA handler set out to routine exchange, ambushed at Tolkachev's apartment, who had already been arrested, executed in 1986.09.
1985.10: Robert Hanssen makes contact with Ames' handler, Viktor Cherkashin. Hanssen later put in charge of tracking himself down."
page
284
Adolf Tolkachev the ' Billion Dollar Spy'.
1985.06.13: CIA handler set out to routine exchange, ambushed at Tolkachev's apartment, who had already been arrested, executed in 1986.09.
1985.10: Robert Hanssen makes contact with Ames' handler, Viktor Cherkashin. Hanssen later put in charge of tracking himself down."
April 5, 2025
–
71.75%
"Valery Martinov: spy on Line X since 1980. From 1982 double agent for the CIA, executed after revealed by Ames and Hanssen.
Gordievsky: Agreed escape plan wiht MI6. Story of repeated attempts to communicate. 'Dry cleaning' (proverka) technique. Visit St. Basil's, nobody there.
Second attempt contact was made. British agent suspicious because Gord. was smoking, but decided to commence MI6 exfil plan."
page
287
Gordievsky: Agreed escape plan wiht MI6. Story of repeated attempts to communicate. 'Dry cleaning' (proverka) technique. Visit St. Basil's, nobody there.
Second attempt contact was made. British agent suspicious because Gord. was smoking, but decided to commence MI6 exfil plan."
April 5, 2025
–
73.0%
"1985.07.19: Gordievsky's trip to agreed rendezvous point in Leningrad.
Met riot cops at train station due to major international youth festival, which meant Finnish border busier than usual.
1985.07.20: Arrives in Leningrad
Stops at Viborg cafe
Picked up by 2 british women, put in trunk in space blanket to block IR. Agents distracted dogs at border.
Sibelius - Finlandia
Only time a KGB double agent was smuggled out"
page
292
Met riot cops at train station due to major international youth festival, which meant Finnish border busier than usual.
1985.07.20: Arrives in Leningrad
Stops at Viborg cafe
Picked up by 2 british women, put in trunk in space blanket to block IR. Agents distracted dogs at border.
Sibelius - Finlandia
Only time a KGB double agent was smuggled out"
