Nate Silver (Author of The Signal and the Noise)

Nate Silver鈥檚 Followers (688)

Nate Silver

Born

in East Lansing, Michigan, The United States

January 13, 1978

Website

Twitter

Genre

Statistics, Nonfiction, Sports

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Nathaniel Read 鈥淣ate鈥� Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician and writer who analyzes baseball and elections. He is currently the editor-in-chief of ESPN鈥檚 FiveThirtyEight blog and a Special Correspondent for ABC News. Silver first gained public recognition for developing PECOTA, a system for forecasting the performance and career development of Major League Baseball players, which he sold to and then managed for Baseball Prospectus from 2003 to 2009.

In 2007, writing under the pseudonym 鈥淧oblano鈥�, Silver began to publish analyses and predictions related to the 2008 United States presidential election. At first this work appeared on the political blog Daily Kos, but in March 2008 Silver established his own website, FiveThi ...more

1768 posts
Nate Silver's Blog

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The Details

Almost since its founding, FiveThirtyEight has published comprehensive averages of polls for a wide variety of questions related to U.S. politics. In June 2023, we debuted a new set of models for these averages that aims to improve the models鈥� accuracy

Combine Editions
Nate Silver鈥檚 books

Average rating: 3.95 · 56,094 ratings · 4,085 reviews · 8 distinct works 鈥� Similar authors

	The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail鈥擝ut Some Don't 3.97 avg rating — 51,487 ratings — published 2012	Error rating book. Refresh and try again. Rate this book Clear rating 1 of 5 stars 2 of 5 stars 3 of 5 stars 4 of 5 stars 5 of 5 stars
	Baseball Between the Numbers: Why Everything You Know About the Game is Wrong by Jonah Keri (Editor), Nate Silver, James Click 4.01 avg rating — 3,763 ratings — published 2006 — 10 editions	Error rating book. Refresh and try again. Rate this book Clear rating 1 of 5 stars 2 of 5 stars 3 of 5 stars 4 of 5 stars 5 of 5 stars
	On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything 3.68 avg rating — 3,891 ratings — published 2024 — 11 editions	Error rating book. Refresh and try again. Rate this book Clear rating 1 of 5 stars 2 of 5 stars 3 of 5 stars 4 of 5 stars 5 of 5 stars
	The Best American Infographics 2014 (The Best American Series 庐) by Gareth Cook (Editor), Nate Silver (Introduction) 4.04 avg rating — 324 ratings — published 2014 — 6 editions	Error rating book. Refresh and try again. Rate this book Clear rating 1 of 5 stars 2 of 5 stars 3 of 5 stars 4 of 5 stars 5 of 5 stars
	The Best American Infographics 2015 by Gareth Cook (Editor), Maria Popova (欧宝娱乐 Author) (Introduction), Nate Silver (Contributor) 4.15 avg rating — 192 ratings — published 2015 — 6 editions	Error rating book. Refresh and try again. Rate this book Clear rating 1 of 5 stars 2 of 5 stars 3 of 5 stars 4 of 5 stars 5 of 5 stars
	Baseball Prospectus 2009: The Essential Guide to the 2009 Baseball Season by Baseball Prospectus, Christina Kahrl (Editor), Steve Goldman 4.19 avg rating — 149 ratings — published 2009 — 3 editions	Error rating book. Refresh and try again. Rate this book Clear rating 1 of 5 stars 2 of 5 stars 3 of 5 stars 4 of 5 stars 5 of 5 stars
	The Importance of Ideas: 16 thoughts to get you thinking (Guardian Shorts Book 11) by Andrew Kelly (Editor), Nate Silver, Naomi Wolf (欧宝娱乐 Author) 3.14 avg rating — 28 ratings — published 2014	Error rating book. Refresh and try again. Rate this book Clear rating 1 of 5 stars 2 of 5 stars 3 of 5 stars 4 of 5 stars 5 of 5 stars
	New York Magazine April 19, 2010 - The Neighborhoods Issue 0.00 avg rating — 0 ratings	Error rating book. Refresh and try again. Rate this book Clear rating 1 of 5 stars 2 of 5 stars 3 of 5 stars 4 of 5 stars 5 of 5 stars

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Quotes by Nate Silver (?)

“Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge: the serenity to accept the things we cannot predict, the courage to predict the things we can, and the wisdom to know the difference.”
― Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail鈥擝ut Some Don't

tags: bias, knowledge, prediction, self-knowledge, uncertainty, wisdom

40 likes

“Most of you will have heard the maxim "correlation does not imply causation." Just because two variables have a statistical relationship with each other does not mean that one is responsible for the other. For instance, ice cream sales and forest fires are correlated because both occur more often in the summer heat. But there is no causation; you don't light a patch of the Montana brush on fire when you buy a pint of Haagan-Dazs.”
― Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail鈥擝ut Some Don't

tags: causation, correlation

23 likes

“The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.”
― Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail鈥擝ut Some Don't

23 likes

See all Nate Silver's quotes »

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