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ARC for review. To be published August 12, 2025.

4 stars

On May 23, four years ago the world (but mostly the U.S.) suffered a major disaster, the Low-Probability Event, where nearly eight million people died in improbable and totally bizarre ways. Fish raining down on the streets of Chicago. Escaped chimps eating faces. All the Boeing 777s crashing into each other. That sort of thing.

Vera Norrie was celebrating being named the youngest professor at the University of Chicago (in statistics and probability) and the publication of her book (on a potentially shady casino) when the disaster struck. She lost everything and she cannot come to any sort of terms with it. One day Special Agent Jonah Layne, with the Low-Probability Event Commission, which has an extremely broad mandate and incredible latitude (“the LPEC decides what’s legal.�) comes calling. He’s investigating that statistically lucky casino that Vera wrote about. He believes it’s connected with the LPE and he needs Vera’s help before another event occurs.

So this a a great, great yarn. All the information about statistics and, especially, the idea of historical inertia, “what if fate is quantifiable and concrete?,� was really interesting to me (I’m rather fascinated by statistics. Plus, is it condescending to say that Tingle’s writing has really improved since CAMP DAMASCUS? Loads of fun with some good home truths. Recommended.