Å·±¦ÓéÀÖ

Glimpses Of An Ordinary Future

How would it be to live in the very near future? What will happen once we cross the rubicon, the point beyond which climate change overwhelms the Anthropocene and humans are no longer in charge of their surroundings?

We should expect high human drama under such extreme duress, right?

Wrong.

Daily life will carry on. That is what will happen.

So What’s New in The Very Near Future?

Extinction Rate in Oceans Now Faster Than on Land. Coral Reef Collapses Leading to Mass Extinctions; Thirty Percent of Warm-water Species Estimated Gone. Fishing Stocks Depleted, UN Declares Scaleback Necessary or Commercial Species Will Crash.

Nears a Million Acres a Year. Deforestation now faster in temperate than tropical forests. Only 35% of tropical forests left.

The average Indian consumes 200 kilograms of grain a year; the average American, 800 kilograms; the average Italian, 400 kilograms. The Italian diet was rated best in the world for heart disease.

300 Tons of and Plutonium Unaccounted For. High Mutation Rate of Microorganisms Near Sites. Antibiotics in Animal Feed Reduce Medical Effectiveness of Antibiotics for Humans.Ìý

Environmental estrogens suspected in lowest-ever human sperm counts. The Antarctic ice has started to break up as early as May every year.Ìý

The cycle has accelerated so much that it is now called The Hyper Nino. The Gulf Stream has begun to shut down and the water no longer sinks due to the influx of fresh water from glaciers. Europe faces a complete ice age.

Two Billion Tons of Carbon Added to the Atmosphere This Year. One of the five hottest years on record. The Fed Hopes U.S. Economy Will Grow by Four Percent in the Final Quarter.

Ìý

I was constantly reminded of the movie The Day after Tomorrow when I read this. But unlike DAT, 40 Signs is not designed as a disaster story, but as a ‘domestic comedy�, to use ’s own phrase. It is not meant to shock and awe the audience; or to use the disaster potential of sudden climate change to produce high drama. Instead it is a very subtly constructed future, achieved by sketching ordinary people from specifically selected walks of life that the audience knows are bound to be affected, and thus pays attention for tiny hints on how they have been in fact affected even as they go about their daily lives.

We soon notice that the plot advancing moments have a tendency to be connected to the changed world they live in. For example, the elevator scene shows how life, or at least the perception of daily life, has changed radically from our’s when flooding of the subway system is par for the course and does not even make the list of things to be discussed over dinner.

And thus it turns out that their lives have been altered immensely by the gathering doom -- it is just that they are now used to every incremental change and walks, almost casually, into the gathering ‘whimper� that awaits them at the end.

The Theaters of the Future

There is not much here plot wise or excitement wise compared to a the dense action of , but as always KSR makes up for it by the wealth of ideas and thoughts provoked.

The plot operates mostly in what KSR clearly considers to be the Theaters of the Future - Science & Politics. In fact, a core sub-plots of the book, and one of the key ideas in it, is about the Paradigm Shift (yup, Kuhn again) that has to occur in the field of science to make the scientists aware of their political responsibility. He says that an unfortunate repercussion of the World Wars' political promotion of science was that this overt politicization of Science led to an almost knee-jerk reaction -- the scientific community withdrew almost entirely from politics and took a much more ’neutral� role. This meant that they no longer get directly involved in important political questions and so a vital and authoritative voice that can save humanity is lost to us. This has to change.

A Disaster Too Slow

Of course, most of the characters are scientists or politicians, and all of them have adequate information, theories and concerns, and fully appreciates the threat that global warming poses, but they just can't seem to awaken a Day After Tomorrow sort of urgency in their lives.

No matter how fast climate change occurs, it is not fast enough to not let us say ‘let us get used to this�, and to postpone decisive action for later.

The disasters just cannot strike fast enough for them to really act!

The most environmentally aware and empathetic politician in the book has this to say even as world falls apart around him:

Then the words burst out of Charlie: “So Phil! Are you going to do something about global warming now?�

Phil grinned his beautiful grin. “I’ll see what I can do!�