欧宝娱乐

“Shallow men believe in luck or in circumstance. Strong men believe in cause and effect.”
― Ralph Waldo Emerson

“Man is so intelligent that he feels impelled to invent theories to account for what happens in the world. Unfortunately, he is not quite intelligent enough, in most cases, to find correct explanations. So that when he acts on his theories, he behaves very often like a lunatic.”
― Aldous Huxley

“All I'm saying is that it's shortsighted to blame TV. It's simply another symptom. TV didn't invent our aesthetic childishness here any more than the Manhattan Project invented aggression.”
― David Foster Wallace

“One should be light like a bird, and not like a feather.”
― Paul Valery

“Belief in the causal nexus is superstition.”
― Ludwig Wittgenstein, Tractatus Logico-Philosophicus

“Congress shall make no law abridging the freedom of production and trade...”
― Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

“There are no telegraphs on Tralfamadore. But you're right: each clump of symbols is a brief, urgent message-- describing a situation, a scene. We Tralfamadorians read them all at once, not one after the other. There isn't any particular relationship between all the messages, except that the author has chosen them carefully, so that, when seen all at once, they produce an image of life that is beautiful and surprising and deep. There is no beginning, no middle, no end, no suspense, no moral, no causes, no effects. What we love in our books are the depths of many marvelous moments seen all at one time.”
― Kurt Vonnegut, Slaughterhouse-Five

“The law of causality, I believe, like much that passes muster among philosophers, is a relic of a bygone age, surviving, like the monarchy, only because it is erroneously supposed to do no harm.”
― Bertrand Russell, Selected Papers

“I鈥檓 fighting a losing battle. I can鈥檛 tell this story the way it should be told. This whole hotchpotch of characters, events, dates, and the infinite branching of cause and effect - and these people, these real people who actually existed. I鈥檓 barely able to mention a tiny fragment of their lives, their actions, their thoughts. I keep banging my head against the wall of history. And I look up and see, growing all over it - ever higher and denser, like a creeping ivy - the unmappable pattern of causality ... How many forgotten heroes sleep in history's great cemetery?”
― Laurent Binet, HHhH

“Conspiracy theory, like causality, works fantastically well as an explanatory model but only if you use it backwards. The fact that we cannot predict much about tomorrow strongly indicates that most of the explanations we develop about how something happened yesterday have (like history in general) a high bullshit content.”
― Peter J. Carroll, Psybermagick: Advanced Ideas in Chaos Magic

“Because reasoning about causes and effects is a very difficult thing, and I believe the only judge of that can be God. We are already hard put to establish a relationship between such an obvious effect as a charred tree and the lightning bolt that set fire to it, so to trace sometimes endless chains of causes and effects seems to me as foolish as trying to build a tower that will touch the sky.”
― Umberto Eco, The Name of the Rose

“Let us not forget this: when 'I raise my arm', my arm goes up. And the problem arises: what is left over if I subtract the fact that my arm goes up from the fact that I raise my arm?”
― Ludwig Wittgenstein, Philosophical Investigations

“We do not see our hand in what happens, and so we call certain events melancholy accidents...”
― Stanley Cavell

“Every action is a reaction.”
― Mokokoma Mokhonoana

“English: "Means are limit of consequences."

膶esky: 鈥濸rost艡edky jsou limitem n谩sledk暖.”
― Sebasti谩n Wortys, Vtiposcifilo-z/s-ofie

“A tragedy unveiled in its causality is but a tragedy incomplete; only in the shadow of uncertainty, where the root of suffering remains veiled, does the tragedy reach its poignant entirety.”
― Syed Buali Gillani

“The demonic etiology ofcertain illnesses is affirmed by the Scriptures: explicitly in the prologue to the Book ofJob (Job 2:6-7), and implicitly in tbe words of the Apostle Peter, "God anointed Jesus of Nazareth with the Holy Spirit and with power; ... he went about doing good and healing all that were oppressed by the devll, for God was with him" (Acts 10:38). In addition, there are numerous biblical accounts of miracles where the demonic origin of illness clearly appears. The Fathers also affirm such an etiology. This recognition of a demonic etiology does not prevent the Fathers from admitting as well a biological, organic or functional etiology as parallel or secondary. Far from excluding physical causality, the "metaphysical" or spiritual origin of illness includes the physical aspect, recognizing it to be a necessary vehicle for manifesting the demonic.”
― Jean-Claude Larchet, The Theology of Illness

“With Bayesian networks, we had taught machines to think in shades of grey, and this was an important step toward humanlike thinking. But we still couldn't teach machines to understand causes and effects. We couldn't explain to a computer why turning the dial of a barometer won't cause rain.... Without the ability to envision alternate realities and contrast them with the currently existing reality, a machine...cannot answer the most basic question that makes us human: "Why?”
― Judea Pearl, The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect

“It's important to note that a top-down (or feed-backward) flow of information (from higher to lower layers) also occurs in the visual cortex; in fact, there are about ten times as many feed-backward connections as feed-forward ones. However the role of these backward connections is not well understood by neuroscientists, although it is well established that our prior knowledge and expectations, presumably stored in higher brain layers, strongly influence what we perceive.”
― Melanie Mitchell

“Causality = Correlation + Assumptions”
― J.N. Berkemeijer

“We each unwittingly contribute, each and every day, to the preventions and to the causes of millions of accidents.”
― Mokokoma Mokhonoana

“Results of a recent survey of 74 chief executive officers indicate that there may be a link between childhood pet ownership and future career success. Fully 94% of the CEOs, all of them employed within Fortune 500 companies, had possessed a dog, a cat, or both, as youngsters.

The respondents asserted that pet ownership had helped them to develop many of the positive character traits that make them good managers today, including responsibility, empathy, respect for other living beings, generosity, and good communication skills. For all we know, more than 94% of children raised in the backgrounds from which chief executives come had pets, in which case the direction of dependency would be negative. Maybe executive success is really related to tooth brushing during childhood. Probably all chief executives brushed their teeth, at least occasionally, and we might imagine the self-discipline thus acquired led to their business success. That seems more reasonable than the speculation that 鈥渃ommunication skills鈥� gained through interacting with a childhood pet promote better relationships with other executives and employees.”
― Reid Hastie, Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgement and Decision Making

“Another situation in which we attend to base rates occurs if people ascribe some causal significance to discrepant rates. When they can see the causal relevance of the base rates, they often incorporate them into their reasoning. For example, the belief that one bus company has more accidents than another because its drivers are more poorly selected and trained will influence mock jurors to take this difference in accident rates into account in evaluating eyewitness testimony; but belief that a bus company has more accidents simply because it is larger will not. Study after study has shown that when these rates are merely statistical as opposed to causal, they tend to be ignored. Exactly the same effect seems to occur in real courtrooms; naked statistical evidence is notoriously unpersuasive.”
― Reid Hastie, Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgement and Decision Making

“In the celestial firmament the seed of infinity is sown in just one bubble in a never-ending cosmic ocean of causality. This great expanse gives way to entire universes and worlds within from which life is born, and from its evolved forms new-universes are shaped. New creations to be watched, but what if they are found wanting鈥攚ho shall judge them鈥攂enevolent or malevolent beings, immortals, deities, the Gods?”
― J.L. Haynes

“Each human act has countless causes. The author works to reveal these causes.”
― Wis艂awa Szymborska, How to Start Writing (and When to Stop): Advice for Writers

“It is the plurality of effects that we mistake for that of causes.”
― Raheel Farooq, Why I Am a Muslim: And a Christian and a Jew

“How was confounding defined then, and how should it be defined? Armed with what we now know about the logic of causality, the answer to the second question is easier. The quantity we observe is the conditional probability of the outcome given the treatment, P(Y | X). The question we want to ask of Nature has to do with the causal relationship between X and Y, which is captured by the interventional probability P( Y | do(X)). Confounding, then, should simply be defined as anything that leads to a discrepancy between the two: P(Y | X) != P(Y | do(X)). Why all the fuss.”
― Judea Pearl, The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect

“No being can be excluded from causal action.”
― Radoslav Rochallyi, ESSE: Theorems on Morality and Power

“L鈥檃lg猫bre s鈥檃pplique aux nuages ; l鈥檌rradiation de l鈥檃stre profite 脿 la rose; aucun penseur n鈥檕serait dire que le parfum de l鈥檃ub茅pine est inutile aux constellations. Qui donc peut calculer le trajet d鈥檜ne mol茅cule? Que savons-nous si des cr茅ations de monde ne sont point d茅termin茅es par des chutes de grains de sable? Qui donc conna卯t les flux et les reflux r茅ciproques de l鈥檌nfiniment grand et de l鈥檌nfiniment petit, le retentissement des causes dans les pr茅cipices de l鈥櫭猼re et les avalanches de la cr茅ation? [鈥 Tous les oiseaux qui volent ont 脿 la patte le fil de l鈥檌nfini. [鈥 Dans les vastes 茅changes cosmiques, la vie universelle va et vient en quantit茅s inconnues, roulant tout dans l鈥檌nvisible myst猫re des effluves, [鈥 rattachant le vol d鈥檜n insecte au mouvement de la terre, subordonnant, qui sait? ne f没t-ce que par l鈥檌dentit茅 de la loi, l鈥櫭﹙olution de la com猫te dans le firmament au tournoiement de l鈥檌nfusoire dans la goutte d鈥檈au. Machine faite d鈥檈sprit. Engrenage 茅norme dont le premier moteur est le moucheron et dont la derni猫re roue est le zodiaque.”
― Victor Hugo, Les Mis茅rables

“Rien n鈥檈st petit en effet; quiconque est sujet aux p茅n茅trations profondes de la nature, le sait. Bien qu鈥檃ucune satisfaction absolue ne soit donn茅e 脿 la philosophie, pas plus de circonscrire la cause que de limiter l鈥檈ffet, le contemplateur tombe dans des extases sans fond 脿 cause de toutes ces d茅compositions de forces aboutissant 脿 l鈥檜nit茅. Tout travaille 脿 tout.

L鈥檃lg猫bre s鈥檃pplique aux nuages ; l鈥檌rradiation de l鈥檃stre profite 脿 la rose ; aucun penseur n鈥檕serait dire que le parfum de l鈥檃ub茅pine est inutile aux constellations. Qui donc peut calculer le trajet d鈥檜ne mol茅cule? que savons-nous si des cr茅ations de mondes ne sont point d茅termin茅es par des chutes de grains de sable? qui donc conna卯t les flux et les reflux r茅ciproques de l鈥檌nfiniment grand et de l鈥檌nfiniment petit, le retentissement des causes dans les pr茅cipices de l鈥櫭猼re, et les avalanches de la cr茅ation? Un ciron importe ; le petit est grand, le grand est petit ; tout est en 茅quilibre dans la n茅cessit茅 ; effrayante vision pour l鈥檈sprit. Il y a entre les 锚tres et les choses des relations de prodige ; dans cet in茅puisable ensemble, de soleil 脿 puceron, on ne se m茅prise pas ; on a besoin les uns des autres. La lumi猫re n鈥檈mporte pas dans l鈥檃zur les parfums terrestres sans savoir ce qu鈥檈lle en fait ; la nuit fait des distributions d鈥檈ssence stellaire aux fleurs endormies. Tous les oiseaux qui volent ont 脿 la patte le fil de l鈥檌nfini. La germination se complique de l鈥櫭ヽlosion d鈥檜n m茅t茅ore et du coup de bec de l鈥檋irondelle brisant l鈥櫯搖f, et elle m猫ne de front la naissance d鈥檜n ver de terre et l鈥檃v猫nement de Socrate. O霉 finit le t茅lescope, le microscope commence. Lequel des deux a la vue la plus grande? Choisissez. Une moisissure est une pl茅iade de fleurs ; une n茅buleuse est une fourmili猫re d鈥櫭﹖oiles. M锚me promiscuit茅, et plus inou茂e encore, des choses de l鈥檌ntelligence et des faits de la substance. Les 茅l茅ments et les principes se m锚lent, se combinent, s鈥櫭﹑ousent, se multiplient les uns par les autres, au point de faire aboutir le monde mat茅riel et le monde moral 脿 la m锚me clart茅. Le ph茅nom猫ne est en perp茅tuel repli sur lui-m锚me. Dans les vastes 茅changes cosmiques, la vie universelle va et vient en quantit茅s inconnues, roulant tout dans l鈥檌nvisible myst猫re des effluves, employant tout, ne perdant pas un r锚ve de pas un sommeil, semant un animalcule ici, 茅miettant un astre l脿, oscillant et serpentant, faisant de la lumi猫re une force et de la pens茅e un 茅l茅ment, diss茅min茅e et indivisible, dissolvant tout, except茅 ce point g茅om茅trique, le moi ; ramenant tout 脿 l鈥櫭e atome ; 茅panouissant tout en Dieu ; enchev锚trant, depuis la plus haute jusqu鈥櫭� la plus basse, toutes les activit茅s dans l鈥檕bscurit茅 d鈥檜n m茅canisme vertigineux, rattachant le vol d鈥檜n insecte au mouvement de la terre,subordonnant, qui sait? ne f没t-ce que par l鈥檌dentit茅 de la loi, l鈥櫭﹙olution de la com猫te dans le firmament au tournoiement de l鈥檌nfusoire dans la goutte d鈥檈au. Machine faite d鈥檈sprit. En grenage 茅norme dont le premier moteur est le moucheron et dont la derni猫re roue est le zodiaque.”
― Victor Hugo