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“Pilots used to fly planes manually, but now they operate a dashboard with the help of computers. This has made flying safer and improved the industry.
Healthcare can benefit from the same type of approach, with physicians practicing medicine with the help of data, dashboards, and AI. This will improve
the quality of care they provide and make their jobs easier and more efficient”
― Ronald M. Razmi, AI Doctor: The Rise of Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare - A Guide for Users, Buyers, Builders, and Investors

“The intolerance of uncertainty and ignorance flows not only from
pridefulness, but from a universal human desire to find meanings and patterns
everywhere. The mind abhors a vacuum.”
― Jon Elster, Explaining Social Behavior: More Nuts and Bolts for the Social Sciences

“The combination of our natural desire to be better than our peers, our faulty assumption of dodging risk, and our flawed belief of having better chances than others, pushes us into excessive greed territory. We take more significant and sometimes fatal risks.”
― Naved Abdali

“Identical information can lead to opposite conclusions based on relative perceptions of its receivers.”
― Naved Abdali

“Humans are not machines. They analyze information through the lenses of their experience, knowledge, and cognitive biases. All of it makes their perception, their
unique viewpoint.”
― Naved Abdali

“If you are wearing yellow goggles, every blue thing will appear green to you. It is your perception, and it is your reality.”
― Naved Abdali

“A considerable part of our emotional realities is often made up by our minds.”
― Naved Abdali

“Biases continuously try to keep us from recognizing and understanding those biases. For example, racial biases keep us from understanding racial discrimination, just like religious biases keep us from understanding religious discrimination and cultural biases keep us from understanding the inhuman habits in our cultural traditions.”
― Abhijit Naskar, Earthquakin' Egalitarian: I Die Everyday So Your Children Can Live

“Too must sentiment and no reason, destroys both the path and the pedestrian.”
― Abhijit Naskar, Giants in Jeans: 100 Sonnets of United Earth

“Sociologist Barry Glassner (1999) has documented many of the biases introduced by “If it bleeds, it leadsâ€� news reporting, and by the strategic efforts of special interest groups to control the agenda of public fear of crime, disease, and other hazards. Is an increase of approximately 700 incidents in 50 states over 7 years an “epidemicâ€� of road rage? Is it conceivable that there is (or ever was) a crisis in children’s day care stemming from predatory satanic cults? In 1994, a research team funded by the U.S. government spent 4 years and $750,000 to reach the conclusion that the myth of satanic conspiracies in day care centers was totally unfounded; not a single verified instance was found (Goodman, Qin, Bottoms, & Shaver, 1994; Nathan & Snedeker, 1995). Are automatic-weapon-toting high school students really the first priority in youth safety? (In 1999, approximately 2,000 school-aged children were identified as murder victims; only 26 of those died in school settings, 14 of them in one tragic incident at Columbine High School in Littleton, Colorado.) The anthropologist Mary Douglas (Douglas & Wildavsky, 1982) pointed out that every culture has a store of exaggerated horrors, many of them promoted by special interest factions or to defend cultural ideologies. For example, impure water had been a hazard in 14th-century Europe, but only after Jews were accused of poisoning wells did the citizenry become preoccupied with it as a major problem.
But the original news reports are not always ill-motivated. We all tend to code and mention characteristics that are unusual (that occur infrequently). [...] The result is that the frequencies of these distinctive characteristics, among the class of people considered, tend to be overestimated.”
― Reid Hastie, Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgement and Decision Making

“A more serious consequence of the illusion of control is revealed in our preference for driving over flying. At least part of this irrational—from a survival point of view—habit is due to the fact that we “feel in controlâ€� when driving, but not when flying. The probability of dying in a cross-country flight is approximately equal to the probability of dying in a 12-mile driveâ€� in many cases, the most dangerous part of the trip is over when you reach the airport (Sivak & Flannagan, 2003). Gerd Gigerenzer (2006) estimates that the post-9/11 shift from flying to driving in the United States resulted in an additional 1,500 deaths, beyond the original 3,000 immediate victims of the terrorist attacks.”
― Reid Hastie, Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgement and Decision Making

“Base your understanding of the world on data, rather than journalism.
Journalism is a highly non random sample of the worst things that have happened in any given period.

It is an availability machine, in the sense of Tversky and Kahneman's availability heuristic; namely - our sense of risk, danger and prevalence is driven by anecdotes, images and narratives that are available in memory.

A lot of good things are either things that "don't happen" (like a country at peace, or a city that has not been attacked by terrorists, which almost by definition are not news), or things that build up incrementally, a few percentage points a year, and then compound (like the decline of extreme poverty).

We can be unaware, out to lunch about what's happening in the world if we base our view on the news. If instead we base our view on data, then not only do we see that many (although not all) things have gone better (not linearly, not without setbacks and reversals, but in general a lot better... and that paradoxically, as I've cheekily put it, progressives hate progress), but also that the best possible case for progress - that is, for striving for more progress in the future, for being a true progressive - is not to have some kind of foolish hope, but to look at the fact that progress has taken place in the past; and that means: why should it stop now?”
― Steven Pinker

“The intolerance of uncertainty and ignorance flows not only from pridefulness, but from a universal human desire to find meanings and patterns everywhere. The mind abhors a vacuum.”
― Jon Elster, Explaining Social Behavior: More Nuts and Bolts for the Social Sciences

“People tend to weigh their most recent experiences more than the affairs of the past.”
― Naved Abdali

“The framing effect describes a cognitive bias whereby our decisions are influenced by whether the information is framed in a positive or negative light. Common examples of the framing effect are found in how goods are marketed.”
― John V. Petrocelli, The Life-Changing Science of Detecting Bullshit

“As Richard Nisbett and Lee Ross (1980) point out, rationally defensible deductive logic involves a specification from the universal to the particular (“All men are mortal, therefore Robyn Dawes is mortal.â€�), but much less reliable inductive logic involves generalization from the particular to the universal (“This one Jewish merchant is dishonest, therefore all Jewish merchants are dishonest.â€�). However, we are prone to do the exact opposite: we under-deduce and over-induce.”
― Reid Hastie, Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgement and Decision Making

“Results of a recent survey of 74 chief executive officers indicate that there may be a link between childhood pet ownership and future career success. Fully 94% of the CEOs, all of them employed within Fortune 500 companies, had possessed a dog, a cat, or both, as youngsters.

The respondents asserted that pet ownership had helped them to develop many of the positive character traits that make them good managers today, including responsibility, empathy, respect for other living beings, generosity, and good communication skills. For all we know, more than 94% of children raised in the backgrounds from which chief executives come had pets, in which case the direction of dependency would be negative. Maybe executive success is really related to tooth brushing during childhood. Probably all chief executives brushed their teeth, at least occasionally, and we might imagine the self-discipline thus acquired led to their business success. That seems more reasonable than the speculation that “communication skillsâ€� gained through interacting with a childhood pet promote better relationships with other executives and employees.”
― Reid Hastie, Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgement and Decision Making

“Another situation in which we attend to base rates occurs if people ascribe some causal significance to discrepant rates. When they can see the causal relevance of the base rates, they often incorporate them into their reasoning. For example, the belief that one bus company has more accidents than another because its drivers are more poorly selected and trained will influence mock jurors to take this difference in accident rates into account in evaluating eyewitness testimony; but belief that a bus company has more accidents simply because it is larger will not. Study after study has shown that when these rates are merely statistical as opposed to causal, they tend to be ignored. Exactly the same effect seems to occur in real courtrooms; naked statistical evidence is notoriously unpersuasive.”
― Reid Hastie, Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgement and Decision Making

“But what if current misery hindsightfully selects and reconstructs memories of childhood to be consistent with a miserable state today? Peter Lewinsohn and Michael Rosenbaum (1987) set out to answer this question with a rare prospective study of over a thousand citizen volunteers.
[...] The results were consistent with the hypothesis that recollection of one’s parents as rejecting and unloving is strongly influenced by current moods; negative recollections were not a stable characteristic of depression-prone people.
[...] This study of depression is important in that it casts doubt on the degree to which adult problems are caused by childhood ones. Given a biasing effect of mood on memory, people who are distressed as adults tend to remember distressing incidents in their childhood. And, if a person also believes that current problems have their roots in early life (perhaps because their therapist told them so), this view itself may serve as an organizing principle to produce even greater distortion of recall (remember the Conway & Ross [1984] study).”
― Reid Hastie, Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgement and Decision Making

“Perhaps the fundamental precept of probabilistic analysis is the exhortation to take a bird’s-eye, distributional view of the situation under analysis (e.g., a dice game, the traffic in Boulder, crimes in Pittsburgh, the situation with that troublesome knee) and to define a sample space of all the possible events and their logical, set membership interrelations. This step is exactly where rational analysis and judgments based on availability, similarity, and scenario construction diverge: When we judge intuitively, the mind is drawn to a limited, systematically skewed subset of the possible events. In the case of scenario construction, for example, we are often caught in our detailed scenario—focused on just one preposterously specific outcome path.”
― Reid Hastie, Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgement and Decision Making

“Perception is all about assumption,
Our brain hasn't evolved to observe reality.
Biases prevent the observation of biases, unless,
You are hellbent to expand across comfort and luxury.”
― Abhijit Naskar, Find A Cause Outside Yourself: Sermon of Sustainability

“We humans are pretty bad at knowing the truth. In fact, our brains suffer from so many distortions, omissions and biases that our perceptions can be completely at odds with reality.”
― Tom Albrighton, Copywriting Made Simple: How to write powerful and persuasive copy that sells

“Yes, it is difficult to believe that we are not entirely rational in our daily decisions and actions. However, by admitting that we are biased, realizing that we should question our choices, and stepping outside of our comfort zone, we are able to open up our eyes to a whole new horizon.”
― Ahmed AlAnsari, The Brand Dependence Model: Identify & Mitigate Your Danger Blocks

“Esperanza Impossible Sonnet 30

There is nothing free about your will,
All of it is conditioned to the hilt.
If you are to foster any original will,
A lot of soil you've got to till.
Perception is not observation,
Perception is prediction.
The brain doesn't care about observing,
It only puts forward a self-serving illusion.
Your will is but puppet to that illusion,
Which means you are but a puppet to evolution.
You do have the brain power to take control,
But it'll take a lot of inconvenient self-correction.
If you can do that, you shall rise as sapiens.
Or you'll just end up as compost in nature's garden.”
― Abhijit Naskar, Esperanza Impossible: 100 Sonnets of Ethics, Engineering & Existence

“Wikipedia: False consensus effect

In psychology, the false consensus effect, also known as consensus bias, is a pervasive cognitive bias that causes people to “see their own behavioral choices and judgments as relatively common and appropriate to existing circumstances�. In other words, they assume that their personal qualities, characteristics, beliefs, and actions are relatively widespread through the general population.

This false consensus is significant because it increases self-esteem (overconfidence effect). It can be derived from a desire to conform and be liked by others in a social environment. This bias is especially prevalent in group settings where one thinks the collective opinion of their own group matches that of the larger population. Since the members of a group reach a consensus and rarely encounter those who dispute it, they tend to believe that everybody thinks the same way. The false-consensus effect is not restricted to cases where people believe that their values are shared by the majority, but it still manifests as an overestimate of the extent of their belief.

The false-consensus effect can be contrasted with pluralistic ignorance, an error in which people privately disapprove but publicly support what seems to be the majority view (regarding a norm or belief), when the majority in fact shares their (private) disapproval”
― Wikipedia Contributors

“As we confront the challenges of an increasingly interconnected world, the imperative to seek multiple perspectives becomes ever more pressing. The human capacity for reasoning empowers us as problem solvers, yet it also renders us susceptible to shortsightedness. We’re full of cognitive biases and they often blind us to potential loopholes and weaknesses in our plans. However, lurking behind every solution lies the lurking threat of the cobra effect, poised to strike back with unintended consequences. By soliciting input from a range of perspectives, we gain a more holistic understanding of the system at play, enabling us to navigate potential pitfalls with greater foresight and agility.”
― Carson Anekeya

“A reality of personal productivity is that humans are not great at estimating the time required for cognitive endeavors. We’re wired to understand the demands of tangible efforts, like crafting a hand ax, or gathering edible plants. When it comes to planning pursuits for which we lack physical intuition, however, we’re guessing more than we realize, leading us to gravitate toward best-case scenarios for how long things might take. We seem to seek the thrill that comes from imagining a wildly ambitious timeline during our planning: “Wow, if I could finish four chapters this fall, I’d really be ahead of schedule!â€� It feels good in the moment but sets us up for scrambling and disappointment in the days that follow.

By deploying a blanket policy of doubling these initial estimates, you can counter this instinct toward unjustified optimism. The result: plans that can be completed at a more leisurely pace. The fear here, of course, is that by doubling these timelines, you’ll drastically reduce what you accomplish. But your original plans were never realistic or sustainable in the first place.”
― Cal Newport (Author)

“A reality of personal productivity is that humans are not great at estimating the time required for cognitive endeavors. We’re wired to understand the demands of tangible efforts, like crafting a hand ax, or gathering edible plants. When it comes to planning pursuits for which we lack physical intuition, however, we’re guessing more than we realize, leading us to gravitate toward best-case scenarios for how long things might take. We seem to seek the thrill that comes from imagining a wildly ambitious timeline during our planning: “Wow, if I could finish four chapters this fall, I’d really be ahead of schedule!â€� It feels good in the moment but sets us up for scrambling and disappointment in the days that follow.

By deploying a blanket policy of doubling these initial estimates, you can counter this instinct toward unjustified optimism. The result: plans that can be completed at a more leisurely pace. The fear here, of course, is that by doubling these timelines, you’ll drastically reduce what you accomplish. But your original plans were never realistic or sustainable in the first place.”
― Cal Newport, Slow Productivity: The Lost Art of Accomplishment Without Burnout

“Inaction driven by the belief that we have no control creates a breeding ground for unaccountability. Believing this can excuse us from making proactive decisions, we tend to shirk responsibilities, resulting in a dangerous cycle of unaccountability as we fail to take responsibility for the outcomes we can influence, thus we we attribute our inaction to external factors rather than our own choices. By not recognizing the control we do have, we passively allow life to happen to us rather than actively shaping our destinies.”
― Carson Anekeya

“Inaction driven by the belief that we have no control creates a breeding ground for unaccountability. Believing this can excuse us from making proactive decisions, we tend to shirk responsibilities, resulting in a dangerous cycle of unaccountability as we fail to take responsibility for the outcomes we can influence, we attribute our inaction to external factors rather than our own choices. By not recognizing the control we do have, we passively allow life to happen to us rather than actively shaping our destinies.”
― Carson Anekeya