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Forecasting Quotes

Quotes tagged as "forecasting" Showing 1-21 of 21
John Kenneth Galbraith
“There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know.”
John Kenneth Galbraith

Stephen Hawking
“There is no way that we can predict the weather six months ahead beyond giving the seasonal average”
Stephen Hawking, Black Holes and Baby Universes and Other Essays

Ransom Riggs
“Weatherman says," Kev scoffed. "I wouldn't trust that silly bugger to know it's raining now.”
Ransom Riggs, Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children

Ruchir Sharma
“The old rule of forecasting was to make as many forecasts as possible and publicise the ones you got right. The new rule is to forecast so far in the future, no one will know you got it wrong.”
Ruchir Sharma, Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles

Nate Silver
“Who needs theory when you have so much information? But this is categorically the wrong attitude to take toward forecasting, especially in a field like economics where the data is so noisy.”
Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't

Nate Silver
“When we advance more confident claims and they fail to come to fruition, this constitutes much more powerful evidence against our hypothesis. We can't really blame anyone for losing faith when this occurs”
Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't

“Like the weather or bonds between lovers,
transformations can never be predicted.
All energy transmutes one day or another,
in one way or another. Either in its form or composition. Or in its position or disposition.”
Suzy Kassem, Rise Up and Salute the Sun: The Writings of Suzy Kassem

Derek     Thompson
“In all sorts of markets—music, film, art, and politics—the future of popularity will be harder to predict as the broadcast power of radio and television democratizes and the channels of exposure grow.... The gatekeepers had their day. Now there are simply too many gates to keep.”
Derek Thompson, Hit Makers: The Science of Popularity in an Age of Distraction

Jean Baudrillard
“Nor, if the succession of events exercises a charm, is unpredictability by any means the least part of it. When a forecast is made, no matter what it may be, it is always tempting to prove it wrong. Events themselves often help us out in this regard. There are overpredicted events, for instance, that obligingly decline to occur; and then there are the exactly opposite kind - those which occur without forewarning. It behoves us to bank on such conjunctural surprises - such 'backdraughts'. We must bet on the Witz of events themselves. If we lose, at least we shall have had the satisfaction of defying the objective idiocy of the probabilities. This obligation is a vital function - part of our collective genetic heritage. Indeed, this is the only genuine function of the intellect: to embrace contradictions, to exercise irony, to take the opposite tack, to exploit rifts and reversibility - even to fly in the face of the lawful and the factual. If the intellectuals of today seem to have run out of things to say, this is because they have failed to assume this ironic function, confining themselves within the limits of their moral, political or philosophical consciousness despite the fact that the rules have changed, that all irony, all radical criticism now belongs exclusively to the haphazard, the viral, the catastrophic - to
accidental or system-led reversals. Such are the new rules of the game - such is the new principle of uncertainty that now holds sway over all. [...]”
Jean Baudrillard, The Transparency of Evil: Essays in Extreme Phenomena

“Some people claim that they predicted a downturn, but they forecast a downturn every day, and finally, one day, they are right. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.”
Naved Abdali

“Financial forecasting appears to be a science that makes astrology look respectable.”
Malkiel Burton

Ryan Lilly
“Proformas rarely perform; missed projections are more often the norm. Still, we skew them up high, we miss but we try, for proformas which rarely perform.”
Ryan Lilly

“The only thing I cannot predict is the future”
Amit Trivedi, Riding The Roller Coaster: Lessons from financial market cycles we repeatedly forget

Andrew McAfee
“Our world is increasingly complex, often chaotic, and always fast-flowing. This makes forecasting something between tremendously difficult and actually impossible, with a strong shift toward the latter as timescales get longer.”
Andrew McAfee, Machine, Platform, Crowd: Harnessing Our Digital Future

“Need for cognition" is the psychological term for the tendency to engage in and enjoy hard mental slogs. [...] superforecasters score high in need-for-cognition tests.”
Philip E. Tetlock, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

“Researchers have found that merely asking people to assume their initial judgment is wrong, to seriously consider why that might be, and then make another judgment, produces a second estimate which, when combined with the first, improves accuracy almost as much as getting a second estimate from another person.”
Philip E. Tetlock, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

“Neither past nor present, but the FUTURE has become the key to y’our existence, today. As without a future there is no meaning to life.”
Tom Meyers

Tom  Meyers
“Neither past nor present, but the FUTURE has become the key to y’our existence, today. As without a future there is no meaning to life.”
Tom Meyers, Futurize Yourself

Craig D. Lounsbrough
“I would encourage you not to confuse a passing drizzle with a brainstorm. Because if you do, it won’t take a meteorologist to tell you what’s coming, and it’ll take more than an umbrella to protect you from it.”
Craig D. Lounsbrough

“The weather forecast can't predict the storms of life.”
Tamerlan Kuzgov

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