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“In our UN-VICE world (UNknown, Volatile, Intersecting, Complex & Exponential), the lines between the present and future are becoming blurred, more liminal.”
― Roger Spitz, The Definitive Guide to Thriving on Disruption: Volume I - Reframing and Navigating Disruption

“In a VUCA world, if you’re not consciously confused, you’re ignorant. If you’re not preparing, you’re negligent.”
― Roger Spitz, Disrupt With Impact: Achieve Business Success in an Unpredictable World

“In truth, neither volatility nor change have an inherent valence.”
― Roger Spitz, Disrupt With Impact: Achieve Business Success in an Unpredictable World

“Uncertainty is an inherent trait of the future.”
― Roger Spitz, Disrupt With Impact: Achieve Business Success in an Unpredictable World

“Ambiguity is not, today, a lack of data, but a deluge of data.”
― Paul Gibbons, The Science of Successful Organizational Change: How Leaders Set Strategy, Change Behavior, and Create an Agile Culture

“In contrast to advice, our UN-VICE is not a suggestion of behavior or a mandate. Instead, our UN-VICE is a way to decipher changing circumstances imaginatively. All advice should be carefully considered, combined with an emphasis on developing and trusting our own capabilities.

In our increasingly UN-VICE world, the value of recommendations is rapidly decreasing. Systemic disruption has devalued ad-vice; instead, we offer our best UN-VICE. Inspired by Richard Feynman, we must explore unanswered questions, rather than adhering to unquestionable answers.

Zen Master Suzuki Roshi said “In the beginner’s mind there are many possibilities, but in the expert’s there are few.â€� Our UN-VICE draws from the three stages of the Japanese martial arts concept shuhari. In the first stage, shu, the student masters the established fundamentals. In the second stage, ha, the learner practices and experiments with novel approaches, guided by their own unique perspectives. In the third stage, ri, they break loose from confining rulebooks to adapt freely to any situation. Shuhari is a journey, a continuous process of learning, experimenting, and letting go.”
― Roger Spitz, Disrupt With Impact: Achieve Business Success in an Unpredictable World

“If you think you know-it-all about cybersecurity, this discipline was probably ill-explained to you.”
― Stephane Nappo

“Our world is facing new tensions, contradictions, complexities, and uncertainties. This new reality is the basis for our own version of VUCA, updated with two additional features: Intersecting and Exponential. In an UN-VICE world, these concepts are as important as UNknown, Volatile, and Complex. We must go beyond automatically relying on advice and start forming our own UN-VICE to survive. Proposing yet another acronym is risky - we hope the acronym police will be merciful.”
― Roger Spitz, Disrupt With Impact: Achieve Business Success in an Unpredictable World

“What is our UN-VICE in the context of Disruption 3.0?
To sum up, UN-VICE is an updated way of capturing the state of the world. Framing the dynamics of systemic disruption as UNknown, Volatile, Intersecting, Complex, Exponential enables an empowering response. We are not helpless victims unable to make decisions. With UN-VICE, we have the power to shape our own futures.

KEY POINTS: OUR UN-VICE ACRONYM

- UNknown: Uncertainty becomes our comfort zone. Recognize you can’t know anything perfectly and many decisions are based on assumptions. Increased uncertainty lowers the value of advice and requires increased self-reliance. Learn how to respond regardless of the lack of precedents.

- Volatile: Harness change for gain. Our world, and change itself, is evolving faster than ever before. Volatility is not new; we simply can’t ignore its impact. In volatility, we see the shifting speed and texture of the changing environment.

- Intersecting: Everything connects to everything else. The broader our lens, the greater the insights gained from realizing how boundaries are disappearing.

- Complex: Notice emergent properties and adapt. In complex environments, inputs do not map clearly to outputs. Practitioners must acknowledge emergent properties and reconcile the immediate with the indefinite. Such systems require critical thinking, experimentation, and judgment. Evaluate emerging issues, build resiliency, and learn to adapt to expanding complexity.

- Exponential: Pay attention to nonlinear types of change that increase in growth rate. Notice rapid acceleration of seemingly small shifts. Monitoring early on will mean fewer surprises.”
― Roger Spitz, Disrupt With Impact: Achieve Business Success in an Unpredictable World

“UN-VICE as a constant environment of the world:

The UN-VICE environment is an inherent constant. It is easier to imagine the world as predictable, but this world does not exist. Reality will continue to display UN-VICE features: UNknown, Volatile, Intersecting, Complex, Exponential.”
― Roger Spitz, Disrupt With Impact: Achieve Business Success in an Unpredictable World

“Many organizations and militaries use VUCA as an acronym to describe the disruptive state of the world, given its Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity.

UN-VICE is an updated way of capturing the state and velocity of the world, with our acronym for UNknown, Volatile, Intersecting, Complex, and Exponential:

- UNknown: Recognizing that you can’t know anything perfectly, and that many of our decisions are based on assumptions. Increased uncertainty lowers the value of ad-vice and requires increased self-reliance.

- Volatile: Our world, and change itself, is evolving faster than ever before. Volatility is not inherently good or bad; it is simply impactful. In volatility we see shifting speed, texture, and magnitude of the changing environment.

- Intersecting: The broader our filters, the more we realize that what we observe overlaps with other things. Boundaries are disappearing, connecting new areas through combinations.

- Complex: These more-than-complicated systems have unreliable input-output relationships and cannot be summarized or modeled without losing their essence. Unpredictable situations with unknown unknowns.

- Exponential: A nonlinear type of change that increases in its growth rate. To an observer, this change may happen gradually, then suddenly. Rapid acceleration of seemingly-small shifts.”
― Roger Spitz, Disrupt With Impact: Achieve Business Success in an Unpredictable World

“Our navigational toolbox equips us with compasses calibrated for the unpredictable.”
― Roger Spitz, Disrupt With Impact: Achieve Business Success in an Unpredictable World

“The human side of analytics is the biggest challenge to implementing big data.”
― Paul Gibbons, The Science of Successful Organizational Change: How Leaders Set Strategy, Change Behavior, and Create an Agile Culture

“So endgames are naturally messy.

They may not be very dynamic, but when an active war is shutting down, there is still a lot of cleaning up to do. It may sound grim, but that's what it looks like. There are broken things everywhere, wounds and corpses, general messiness. Things collapsing due to zemblanity forces that have been set in motion but are too large to control.”
― Venkatesh G. Rao, Be Slightly Evil: A Playbook for Sociopaths